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This is what Qwen says: If a player has a ELO rating 200 points below his opponent, what is his mathematical probability of winning a match? Qwen3-235B-A22B10:24 pm To determine the mathematical probability of winning a match based on the ELO rating difference , we use the formula from the...

Well we have historical USATT rated matches. What does the data say? Just from my experience of watching matches, I really don't believe its anywhere close to 2%. Maybe 10-15% is my guess

That's not my point. 50 matches in a row before a loss implies a 2% probability. Mathematically, i dont think 2% is correct. There is an actual scientific answer based on the elo system.

50 times? Cmon no way. Ive seen 1800 guys beat 2000 guys on occasion

What is the best way to return a short no-spin or sidespin only serve? I typically would return this kind of serve with a closed-face long push. But this opens me up to a loop. Sometimes I go ahead and short push this serve. But this has very high likelihood that your short push goes high and...

The biggest difference that I notice between 2800 and below players and 3000 top players is in the service receive. Chinese top 5 pros have a overwhelming emphasis on pushing short. It's like they have decided that the win or loss depends on this 1 single shot. 2800 vs 2800 or 2400 vs 2400...

Which hardness did you test? I have 39d, 40d, and 41d. I found all of them to be faster than LAC

I would say go ahead and experiment with new technique that you haven't tried yet. For example try to push his serves short. Or try to loop his serves. Or try to punish/counter his slower loops.

That seems right. But for a 2800 vs 3000 player, what is his odds of winning a match? 15%? Would Ma Jinbao really stand a 15% chance against FZD?

Lac does have good spin and nice healthy arc and angle. J3 is faster, easier to access speed. It has slightly lower throw angle. I dont think spin is less or more, it is also very spinny. J3 doesnt react much to boosting, its already fast. Lac has a very good reaction to booster, and becomes...

H3 37 on bh is a very nice rubber. It's very good for pushing and looping and grabbing the ball. The speed is good enough for driving and punching. But overall it is still a bit slower than D09c, even with booster.

This doesn't seem correct though. Ma Jinbao is not better than Lebrun

H8 is faster.

Top Usatt players like Kou Lei and Ma Jinbao are 2800. What would WCQ or FZD or LSD be? Maybe 3000? 3100? 3200?

I think basically among esn rubber, there is tensor and hybrid. There is not much difference within the category

Pretty standard ESN rubber. Nothing special

I bought the Lemuria HL5 and the Stuor HL5. The Lemuria was WAY better. Stuor was very very soft and didn't feel right. The Lemuria was flexy, but would also snap back into place and it gave it a wonderful feeling.

I've only tried V15 sticky briefly and Omega 7 China hybrid. In my opinion they are very very similar. I probably wouldn't even know which is which if I played blindly. I wouldn't expect a big difference either way, since they are made by the same factory anyways.

I just tried this V15 sticky extra very briefly today on a friend's paddle. It seems pretty good. Good speed, good spin, good feeling. It seems more or less equivalent to K3 or ZGX. Is there any difference?

What do you like about it?