Caronavirus & Tokyo 2020

[UpSideDownCarl]

As someone who works in biomedical life sciences, I think there is not enough time for anything in time for Olympics.

Okay. You think this will still be going on in July? I will trust you. I just had a sense that they would get this under control by then. But, that is based on nothing. I just think the media makes us fear all sorts of things.

 

[Tempest/Comet]

As someone who works in biomedical life sciences, I think there is not enough time for anything in time for Olympics.

The SARS epidemic began in Nov 2002 and wasn’t until July 2003 before WHO declared it contained, with still 200+ cases in hospitals. Taiwan (400+ miles distance) was the first taken off the affected list same month.

 

[Vlad Celler]

My opinion is that the situation may be quite serious .... I don’t know how about the postponement of Tokyo 2020

 

[Dream2K]

My opinion is that the situation may be quite serious .... I don’t know how about the postponement of Tokyo 2020

Postponing it would push it into fall when the likelihood of infection may actually increase. If it is postponed then it may as well be cancelled. I doubt the pandemic will get that bad by summer.

 

[Baal]

In answer to Carl, I don't know if this will still be a crisis when the Olympics comes later this year. But I wouldn't bet very much money on it all being under control by then. I'm not a virologist, but a lot depends on stuff that doesn't yet seem to be known very well, like how infectious asymptomatic people are, and how infectious the virus will be once weather gets hotter, etc. And so it could definitely impact the games. Will it???? A definite maybe.

On the other hand this is new. We're not used to it. We are used to flu. Thousands of people die of flu every year.

 

[zeio]

The eggheads say that the peak will come this April or May.

 

[MaLin2.0]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cn...oronavirus-fears-olympics-hnk-intl/index.html

Appears Japan want it to work and do whatever it takes to make sure the event runs smoothly but surely must be concerns with what stats show. Obviously major hot spot right now is China but second on the list is Japan and growing.

 

[Takkyu_wa_inochi]

https://twitter.com/MRC_Outbreak/status/1225146256558870531?s=20

 

[Baal]

A case report just came out suggesting that an antiviral drug made in the US seemed to work in a few patients. So they are now initiating a regular clinical trial in China which should give a more definitive answer. So maybe a reason to have a bit more hope going forward. But still, I am pretty worried about how bad this will get overall.

 

[ttpshot]

The winter here has been very warm and humid this year so we have less people with flu and/or corona virus. At the moment it doesn't seem as severe as the flu in US so fingers crossed for the Olympics.

 

[TTW]

A case report just came out suggesting that an antiviral drug made in the US seemed to work in a few patients. So they are now initiating a regular clinical trial in China which should give a more definitive answer. So maybe a reason to have a bit more hope going forward. But still, I am pretty worried about how bad this will get overall.

I hope this is true and gets contained soon.

 

[Baal]

The winter here has been very warm and humid this year so we have less people with flu and/or corona virus. At the moment it doesn't seem as severe as the flu in US so fingers crossed for the Olympics.

Virology is not my specialty but I work at a medical school so have pretty instant access to latest reports. Apparently as weather warmed up, the SARS virus became less viable once it was out of a human body and on a surface. This reduced its transmission rate quite a lot. If this one is like that, than it is good to remember that Wuhan is one of the "ovens of China". Japan can get pretty hot too. So hope for an early hot spring. On the other hand the MERS virus didn't seem to behave quite like that. I haven't seen anything about this on the current one.

Other interesting news from China, yesterday was the first day in this endemic that the number of people who fully recovered (good health, no more virus in them) exceeded the number of affected people who have died, yesterday by more than double.

 

[Free bird]

The way it’s going, postponement is a real possibility. September seems a good time. You would have a whole summer to recover from the pandemic. Last time it was the hot weather that played a key role in ending the SARS pandemic.

 

[Tempest/Comet]

Entry restrictions from China is increasing internationally. CNT is in Qatar now, they may not wish to go back to China immediately after, not wanting to be locked in.

 

[Ioiettino]

The way it’s going, postponement is a real possibility. September seems a good time. You would have a whole summer to recover from the pandemic. Last time it was the hot weather that played a key role in ending the SARS pandemic.

The Olympics is not a dinner party you can differ with a few phone calls. The amount of organisation which goes into this kind of thing is perhaps bigger than anything else in terms of ressources, staff, venues, logistics, subcontractors, government bodies of all kinds, etc. If that wasn't enough, every single sport which is represented has its own schedule, championship and events planned long in advance. Just imagine the number of such meetings which would have to be adjourned or even cancelled, to accommodate a different time for the Olympics (you may think those are all minor events in comparison, but then try and tell each and every organiser and associated microcosm, multiplied by the sheer number of such events across all disciplines). Athletes would need to rethink all of their plans and preparation. Among the tens (hundreds?) of thousands of spectators who have organised their trip long in advance, a likely majority couldn't reschedule this kind of vacation once business season has started again. Airplane companies' rosters out the window. Hotels and accommodation unprepared. One could go on. All of this, at a few months' notice. I don't know what will happen of course (my money would be on it taking place as planned, somehow, and downright cancellation if things really got out of control). But "September seems a good time" would probably have a few people scratch their heads.

 

[mrk]

Yes indeed, postponement is no realistic option, this event is way too big.

 

[Free bird]

It’s hard to disagree with you on all your points. The Olympics is certainly not a dinner party, but coronavirus outbreak is not your ordinary common cold cough either. We’re talking about an epidemic that is spreading so fast and can have devastating effect on both economie and human life. I pray the outbreak will be contained before summer. If not, I don’t see how the Games can start.

The Olympics is not a dinner party you can differ with a few phone calls. The amount of organisation which goes into this kind of thing is perhaps bigger than anything else in terms of ressources, staff, venues, logistics, subcontractors, government bodies of all kinds, etc. If that wasn't enough, every single sport which is represented has its own schedule, championship and events planned long in advance. Just imagine the number of such meetings which would have to be adjourned or even cancelled, to accommodate a different time for the Olympics (you may think those are all minor events in comparison, but then try and tell each and every organiser and associated microcosm, multiplied by the sheer number of such events across all disciplines). Athletes would need to rethink all of their plans and preparation. Among the tens (hundreds?) of thousands of spectators who have organised their trip long in advance, a likely majority couldn't reschedule this kind of vacation once business season has started again. Airplane companies' rosters out the window. Hotels and accommodation unprepared. One could go on. All of this, at a few months' notice. I don't know what will happen of course (my money would be on it taking place as planned, somehow, and downright cancellation if things really got out of control). But "September seems a good time" would probably have a few people scratch their heads.

 

[Baal]

It’s hard to disagree with you on all your points. The Olympics is certainly not a dinner party, but coronavirus outbreak is not your ordinary common cold cough either. We’re talking about an epidemic that is spreading so fast and can have devastating effect on both economie and human life. I pray the outbreak will be contained before summer. If not, I don’t see how the Games can start.

I'm not an epidemiologist either, but what occurs to me is that an event like the Olympics could facilitate the spread of this virus to a lot more places. That is probably going to probably happen anyway in spite of best efforts to contain it, but this could make it worse as thousands of people from every continent and more than one hundred countries congregate in one place (that already has a high population density). It would depend a lot on what the situation is come spring. But in any case the occurrence of the Olympics in the same year as this outbreak seems like a really unfortunate set of events. It also occurs to me that too many people have too much money to lose to cancel or change the timing but at the same time, as noted, this virus is not quite business as usual. If the games were in the US I can't imagine that they would ever cancel (because $$$$$$ rules), but for some reason I could actually imagine Japanese authorities taking a step like that. Maybe I am mistaken to think that.

 

[zeio]

Well, Abe stresses that the Games will proceed as planned despite serious concerns.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/heal.../japans-olympic-chief-seriously-worried-about

 

[MaLin2.0]

The virus has now overtaken SARS in death toll, looks bad, been following live feeds and continues to increase. Seeing other countries stats and they continue to rise too.

Just wondering what is going through Japan's head right now, if it was a smaller event no doubt would be cancelled but Olympics is a major event, will be very usual event and fears no doubt.