WTT Champions Japan 2025 - 7-11 Aug 2025

[NextLevel]

WCQ was a -600 favorite against Harimoto coming into the match. Those are the odds from the bookmakers and equates to an implied odds of 85% WCQ victory.

Just to be fair, TB should be offering at least $100 to everyone's $20.

But betting on the future is completely besides the point, since all the discussion has been about the specific match yesterday.

Obviously, i agree with you, and I gave the examples of Ma Long vs Fan Zhendong and even Ma Long vs Wang Chuqin to prove the point. Did anyone see Ma Long beating WCQ 4-0 in the World Cup (let us leave aside the equally stunning LGY 4-2 win over FZD) and was it all about WCQ having a bad day? The career head to head between FZD and ML was so ridiculous that even when FZD was the better player, he was never the clear favorite in that matchup.

I just wanted to show that if TBH rejects my bet, he is statistically illiterate, I am not even trying to stack the deck against him, but he is not really a math guy, he just wants to give us idiot bets not the kinds that really lure in most people.

 

[Tony's Table Tennis]

WCQ was a -600 favorite against Harimoto coming into the match. Those are the odds from the bookmakers and equates to an implied odds of 85% WCQ victory.

Just to be fair, TB should be offering at least $100 to everyone's $20.

But betting on the future is completely besides the point, since all the discussion has been about the specific match yesterday.

precisely, so based on your 85%, harimoto was 15% but he became 51%, so he played over 300% better? haha

so next match, wcq wins, he will then come and say "you see".
the reason why harimoto won as because wcq backhand didn't get in.
while he is clueless on why his own shots doesn't get in, I won't expect him to understand why wcq shots didn't get in.

anyways, tb has been doing the same behavior for the past few years, nothing unusual.

 

[TensorBackhand]

Nobody is saying that Harimoto will win the majority of his future matches against Wang Chuqin and you know that. Let's not throw stupid strawmen arguments out there.

Let's go back to your initial comment that started this all



From now until 2028, I will pay you for every match Hugo takes against a top Chinese player and you will pay me for every match Harimoto takes against a top Chinese player. Or, choose another player with a more adult style who you think will be the best non-Chinese and the same bet applies. Should be free money for you right?

I knew it. Nothing but a coward you are. You don't believe anything you spent half the thread arguing about.

You said I'm wrong for believing that WCQ just had a bad shooting night. If you believe that, then take the deal.

What a joke you are. Yet you talk down to others and pretend you are some expert.

 

[TensorBackhand]

That you are placing the odds at 50-50 for a World Champion vs a #4 player shows you really arent confident. Since the historical record is something on the order of 80-90% wins for Wang over Harimoto, you should really be offering $10 for every Wang win to something like $20 for evey Harimoto win if you were confident in the historic record. Or $20 to $30. Because the latter would still pay off handsomely if the historical record holds and the latter would actually entice people to bet.

Let's put it another way. Apply this bet to Fan vs Ma Long. Does it pay off and when? When Fan lost at the Tokyo Olympics to Ma Long, do you think it was because Ma Long was a vastly superior player? And would you have bet in that finals on Ma Long because he was a much better player than Fan?

Or even Wang vs Hugo - does anyone think Hugo didnt get better? Does anyone think Hugo didnt put play Wang during the World Cup? Yet would anyone bet on Hugo to beat Wang 50-50 as a betting person?

You really need to stop using bad arguments to support your position. Harimoto played a great match. No one knows whether what he did was sustainable. No one knows what adjustments CNT will come up with. But acting like Hugo or Tomo didn't play great matches is your prerogative. But if you want the rational bet I outlined above, let me know, I will think about it. The odds are definitely not 50-50. And no one has said that. But you seem unable to help yourself and show why you can't play tournament table tennis.

What are you even talking about. Can you show me ONE time where I said Harimoto didn't play a decent match? What I said was that WCQ was OFF his game, and Harimoto did his job.

In fact, now YOU are backtracking and arguing my point. My entire point is that I believe in mathematical odds. WCQ had a bad match, but I believe in long term mathematics that over the course of many games, he will win. So in the end, you believe the same. After spending half the thread arguing for Harimoto, you still don't believe his strategy is sustainable.

Good! Now at least you admit the same belief I have.

You don't know if Harimoto's result is sustainable. Neither do I.

 

[ThePongCommenter]

I knew it. Nothing but a coward you are. You don't believe anything you spent half the thread arguing about.

You said I'm wrong for believing that WCQ just had a bad shooting night. If you believe that, then take the deal.

What a joke you are. Yet you talk down to others and pretend you are some expert.

Can you not read or are you just going to the extreme lengths of completely twisting others arguments to make it look like you won?

 

[TensorBackhand]

Can you not read or are you just going to the extreme lengths of completely twisting others arguments to make it look like you won?

You don't even understand my argument. So just forget it. You believe whatever you like.

I have my own opinion about the recent match. And I have an opinion about their future matches based on mathematical odds.

It's a free country. Just leave it like that.

 

[ThePongCommenter]

What are you even talking about. Can you show me ONE time where I said Harimoto didn't play a decent match? What I said was that WCQ was OFF his game, and Harimoto did his job.

In fact, now YOU are backtracking and arguing my point. My entire point is that I believe in mathematical odds. WCQ had a bad match, but I believe in long term mathematics that over the course of many games, he will win. So in the end, you believe the same. After spending half the thread arguing for Harimoto, you still don't believe his strategy is sustainable.

Good! Now at least you admit the same belief I have.

You don't know if Harimoto's result is sustainable. Neither do I.

Again absolutely nobody is claiming that Harimoto's adjustments from this match are a predictor or guarantee of future success against WCQ. In fact you're the only one screaming at the clouds about that. Others have clearly stated that WCQ will likely adjust and in fact WCQ probably will win more than he loses of next several matches against Harimoto.

You're just resorting to strawmen at this point and it's sad. Quote one post where anyone said Harimoto's strategy from this match is going to win him future matches and WCQ can't do anything about it.

 

[ThePongCommenter]

You don't even understand my argument. So just forget it. You believe whatever you like.

I have my own opinion about the recent match. And I have an opinion about their future matches based on mathematical odds.

It's a free country. Just leave it like that.

We have all heard your opinion and you are entitled to it. But you are twisting other people's opinions instead of actually trying to discuss them, so that you can just rigidly stick to your own opinion without trying to see any deeper than "he won this time but he won't win next time".

 

[TensorBackhand]

Again absolutely nobody is claiming that Harimoto's adjustments from this match are a predictor or guarantee of future success against WCQ. In fact you're the only one screaming at the clouds about that. Others have clearly stated that WCQ will likely adjust and in fact WCQ probably will win more than he loses of next several matches against Harimoto.

You're just resorting to strawmen at this point and it's sad. Quote one post where anyone said Harimoto's strategy from this match is going to win him future matches and WCQ can't do anything about it.

It's not a strawman.

My point is that WCQ threw in a lot of unforced errors that are uncharacteristic of him when he is on his game like when he played Truls.

Your point is that Harimoto "made" him have unforced errors. Well, if you truly believe that Harimoto can just "make" WCQ have errors, then he will "make" WCQ have errors next time.

This is real life, this is not a AI simulation. There's no 100% objective way to determine how much was just WCQ making error and how much was Harimoto. I can't go and tell WCQ "hey, don't try to make adjustments next time so I can run a mathematical model against your matches"

So you are free to your opinion. I will keep with mine.

If you have a problem, then you're free to take up my offer.

In the real world, if a strategy is not sustainable, another word for that is just "lucky". Since you have no confidence that Harimoto's strategy is sustainable, then you can say that his win yesterday was just lucky.

 

[TensorBackhand]

BTW, if I COULD somehow magically tell both Harimoto and WCQ "don't make any adjustments, just play the way you did in this recent match", I would still make my same offer.

I'm not counting on the adjustments to be in my favor. I'm counting on the long term mathematics, or the "shooting percentages".

If Steph Curry shot 2 for 14 on Monday night. Even with 0 adjustments, I would still pick him to shoot his normal percentage on Wednesday night. This is because I believe in the mathematics of sport.

 

[ThePongCommenter]

This is real life, this is not a AI simulation. There's no 100% objective way to determine how much was just WCQ making error and how much was Harimoto. I can't go and tell WCQ "hey, don't try to make adjustments next time so I can run a mathematical model against your matches"

Congratulations you just got the point that people have been trying to make to you for like 5+ pages now lol. There is no 100% objective way of determining many things in life that's why you have coaches, analysts, video review, expert opinion etc.

There's certainly no objective way to determine which of the 8 paddles in your bag you carry around is the best for you so why do you waste your time testing, trying and sharing with the forum your subjective and not-100%-confirmed conclusions? By your logic there is no way of ever knowing if the equipment made you better or worse or if was just your own error, so there is no way to come to any conclusions about the impacts of a racket change for you, right?

So you are free to your opinion. I will keep with mine.

No doubt you will.

 

[TensorBackhand]

Congratulations you just got the point that people have been trying to make to you for like 5+ pages now lol. There is no 100% objective way of determining many things in life that's why you have coaches, analysts, video review, expert opinion etc.

There's certainly no objective way to determine which of the 8 paddles in your bag you carry around is the best for you so why do you waste your time testing, trying and sharing with the forum your subjective and not-100%-confirmed conclusions? By your logic there is no way of ever knowing if the equipment made you better or worse or if was just your own error, so there is no way to come to any conclusions about the impacts of a racket change for you, right?


No doubt you will.

Good. Just leave it at that. I never said there is 100% confirmed conclusion. You are the one talking as if you are some expert.

I'm just stated my opinion, and at least I'm willing to stand behind it with a friendly prize money. You seem to believe that Harimoto's brilliant strategy is not sustainable....so you don't really stand behind all that you argued for. Looks cowardly to me. But you're free to your opinion that on this 1 single unsustainable match, Harimoto somehow forced WCQ into error.

 

[ThePongCommenter]

Good. Just leave it at that. I never said there is 100% confirmed conclusion. You are the one talking as if you are some expert.

I'm just stated my opinion, and at least I'm willing to stand behind it with a friendly prize money. You seem to believe that Harimoto's brilliant strategy is not sustainable....so you don't really stand behind all that you argued for. Looks cowardly to me. But you're free to your opinion that on this 1 single unsustainable match, Harimoto somehow forced WCQ into error.

You can't read so I'll say it as simply as I can in the chance that you're actually trying to understand:

1. Harimoto's strategy adjustment caused him to be better on that day
2. No strategy in table tennis is "sustainable" because it is a game of constant adjustments especially match to match
3. WCQ and coaching staff will review what caused him to make "unforced errors" and he will adjust with new tactics and training to support those tactics
4. WCQ is the better player overall so he will probably win future encounters more often than he loses them provided he makes said strategy adjustments which he will
5. Despite point 4, Harimoto, even if he loses more than he wins, still is the biggest non-Chinese threat to the Chinese top players right now (Hugo is a reasonable argument too), which you apparently hate people saying

Can you comprehend how all of these things can be true at the same time?

 

[ThePongCommenter]

There's certainly no objective way to determine which of the 8 paddles in your bag you carry around is the best for you so why do you waste your time testing, trying and sharing with the forum your subjective and not-100%-confirmed conclusions? By your logic there is no way of ever knowing if the equipment made you better or worse or if was just your own error, so there is no way to come to any conclusions about the impacts of a racket change for you, right?

Also @TensorBackhand - any response to this?

 

[TensorBackhand]

You can't read so I'll say it as simply as I can in the chance that you're actually trying to understand:

1. Harimoto's strategy adjustment caused him to be better on that day
2. No strategy in table tennis is "sustainable" because it is a game of constant adjustments especially match to match
3. WCQ and coaching staff will review what caused him to make "unforced errors" and he will adjust with new tactics and training to support those tactics
4. WCQ is the better player overall so he will probably win future encounters more often than he loses them provided he makes said strategy adjustments which he will
5. Despite point 4, Harimoto, even if he loses more than he wins, still is the biggest non-Chinese threat to the Chinese top players right now (Hugo is a reasonable argument too), which you apparently hate people saying

Can you comprehend how all of these things can be true at the same time?

I don't disagree with any of those things. I never argued any of those points. Can you read?

In fact, #4 is my point to begin with. Over the long run, WCQ's "shooting average" is higher, so long term will conform to the mathematical average. That is all.

 

[ThePongCommenter]

1. No strategy in table tennis is "sustainable" because it is a game of constant adjustments especially match to match

I never argued any of those points. Can you read?

LOL

 

[TensorBackhand]

Also @TensorBackhand - any response to this?

I don't even understand your question. I don't play with different paddles to find the best paddle.

I play with different paddles because it's just fun to tryout new things. I also find it fun to play high level matches using cheap equipment.

Last week I played my 2150 rated LP chopper friend with $5 Rxton Train rubber. I had him at 2-2 games and I was leading 5-1. Somehow I managed to lose the final game. Oh well. But I find it amusing to beat these high level players with $5 rubber.

 

[Tony's Table Tennis]

tb getting shotgunned from many here.

tb.
how many errors WCQ made on his backhand
vs
how many winners did he made on his backhand
vs
how many errors he made on his forehand

just 1st game alone - which shifted from wcq leading to loosing, your calculation/logic is so far flawed.
so do you have a all 6 game summary of the above, since you did the maths?

 

[TensorBackhand]

LOL

Btw Mr Coward, where is your match video? How come you never post your video?

 

[TensorBackhand]

tb getting shotgunned from many here.

tb.
how many errors WCQ made on his backhand
vs
how many winners did he made on his backhand
vs
how many errors he made on his forehand

just 1st game alone - which shifted from wcq leading to loosing, your calculation/logic is so far flawed.
so do you have a all 6 game summary of the above, since you did the maths?

go ahead. Share the data and let's look at it.