Caronavirus & Tokyo 2020

The sturdy ones will survive, and the infirm will have passed out. LIfe is life/

Unless there is a rapid decline next month (which I doubt) there is no chance for Olympic Games in mid 2020, there are too many countries heavily affected, almost all european countries.

UpSideDownCarl said:

You are in the area of the USA that has been, at this point, hardest hit by COVID-19. I do hope you are able to stay safe.

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I live in SW Washington. The real problem is in the Seattle or Puget Sound area where Vince64 is. He posts links to the SPTTC league play on Saturday nights. The SPTTC is in Bellvue, WA. I do not see a new post for play tomorrow on the MYTT forum. There were fewer players last week.

I intend to play with my practice partners next week as I have my own table with lots of room and balls.

brokenball said:

Notice the death/(death+recovered) ratio.

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That's about 7%, but there's still reason to hope that of the remaining infections that neither died nor recovered yet a larger percentage will in fact recover.

As long as the health system doesn't collapse, that is. When it starts doing so, the grim reality of Italy comes into view, now at a 47% ratio of deaths/(deaths+recovered).

i have a question to @Baal or other doctors.

I am suffering from sleep apnea and using a CPAP ventilation machine when I sleep

in case of pneumonia, is this kind useful or people in hospitals get another kind of ventilation machines ? what is the difference ?

Sorry Taku, I dont know the answer immediately. I will do some reading.

Bb, the better stat is case fatality rate, which is deaths/total infected. The only good number on that comes from Korea because they tested so many people. It is 0.6% there. A scary number but not 7%. But you are in a higher risk age category. So be cautious. Death/ recovered is a very lagging indicator.

Baal said:

Bb, the better stat is case fatality rate, which is deaths/total infected. The only good number on that comes from Korea because they tested so many people. It is 0.6% there. A scary number but not 7%. But you are in a higher risk age category. So be cautious. Death/ recovered is a very lagging indicator.

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Where did you see 0.6%?
The ratio of deaths/infected is not as important as deaths/(deaths+recovered)
I don't see how you or anyone can say otherwise!
Did you look at this?
https://ncov2019.live/data
The ratio of deaths/(deaths+recovered) is over 9% in South Korea!
Maybe that ratio will change over time but the deaths/infected number does not take into account that many of the infect will go into the dead column.

Meanwhile, I still see no link to SPTTC play tonight. I looked up the SPTTC website. No play this month
http://www.spttc.net/


Meanwhile
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADRRfppj7XA
Notice when the first cases were detected.
Also notice the Chinese are trying to leverage their drug supply.
They tried to do that with rare earth metals so other sources of rare earth metals were found outside of China. China lost its leverage there. The same will happen with the drugs and other materials needed for the supply chain.
The WHO finally called this a pandemic. Idiots.
It is too late.

What should have happened.
As soon as we got word there was a possible new virus in China we should have shut down all travel from China until the CDC could verify what the virus is. The rest of the world should have done the same. Italy got screwed. Read this
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Healthcare_in_Italy
Yet it doesn't help much if a previously unknown virus enters your country undetected for weeks.

BTW, if you travel to China now you must go through a 2 week quarantine period before going about your business.

Sorry Bb. Case fatality rate is the key number you need to watch at this point. Not deaths/recovered.

Korea case fatality rate is posted at Johns Hopkins Univ website.

For sure cases spread out of China before anyone knew what was happening. Wuhan is a huge city, 20 million in the metro area.

Baal said:

Sorry Bb. Case fatality rate is the key number you need to watch at this point. Not deaths/recovered.

Korea case fatality rate is posted at Johns Hopkins Univ website.

For sure cases spread out of China before anyone knew what was happening. Wuhan is a huge city, 20 million in the metro area.

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I didn't say deaths/recovered. I said deaths/(deaths+recovered)
I went to the website you suggested. I looked at the numbers for South Korea.
72 deaths, 510 recovered. You do the math. That is more than 10% using John Hopkins numbers.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Now where do you get 0.6%?
Can't you understand that once you get the virus you recover or you don't. All those infected will go into to one of those two categories. Their outcomes are yet to be determined.

This is not difficult.

brokenball said:

I didn't say deaths/recovered. I said deaths/(deaths+recovered)
I went to the website you suggested. I looked at the numbers for South Korea.
72 deaths, 510 recovered. You do the math. That is more than 10% using John Hopkins numbers.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Now where do you get 0.6%?
Can't you understand that once you get the virus you recover or you don't. All those infected will go into to one of those two categories. Their outcomes are yet to be determined.

This is not difficult.

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How did you miss the # confirmed?

NextLevel said:

How did you miss the # confirmed?

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I missed nothing. I used numbers for South Korea from the website Baal suggested.
BTW, the case fatality rate is defined here.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate
Note that it says...
"A CFR can only be considered final when all the cases have been resolved (either died or recovered). "
I agree that a long resolution time will lower the initial CFR but after a while a steady state will be reached. If a person either dies or recovers within a month then it shouldn't takes too long to reach that steady state number. If 500 cases have been resolved then the percentage is known within 5%. 500 people is the number pollsters use for a percentage within 5% confidence level. 1600 outcomes would determine the rate within about 2.5%
As the outcome number increase that confidence window gets smaller.

brokenball said:

I missed nothing. I used numbers for South Korea from the website Baal suggested.
BTW, the case fatality rate is defined here.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate
Note that it says...
"A CFR can only be considered final when all the cases have been resolved (either died or recovered). "
I agree that a long resolution time will lower the initial CFR but after a while a steady state will be reached. If a person either dies or recovers within a month then it shouldn't takes too long to reach that steady state number. If 500 cases have been resolved then the percentage is known within 5%. 500 people is the number pollsters use for a percentage within 5% confidence level. 1600 outcomes would determine the rate within about 2.5%
As the outcome number increase that confidence window gets smaller.

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Confirmed means the person was diagnosed with the disease. Not everyone diagnosed needs treatment.

The case fatality rate is the number who eventually die/total infected.

The only place we can get a remotely accurate estimate is Korea because that is the only place that does enough testing to give an estimate of number infected that is likely to be accurate. There it is 0.6% last time I checked. That is still a very high number compared to any recent flu. In the US the CDC requires TWO positive tests before they call it confirmed at least a few days ago that was true. People who have all the symptoms cant get tested unless they meet criteria that by now are dumb. This thing is here and spreading.

People with minimal symptoms can shed the virus and infect people at high risk for severe disease.

The most serious high risk co-morbidities are COPD, congestive heart failure, diabetes, severe hypertension and any immunosuppressed state (cancer patients, transplant patients, patients with autoimmune conditions). Also age, especially plus one of those. That is not an all inclusive list. If you have any of those, be very careful. If you have been taking ACE inhibitors or a sartan drug for high blood pressure, your body responded by making more ACE2 in your lungs. That is the receptor the virus uses to infect you. So be especially cautious.

It seems to me that the most prominent factors affecting the fate of the Olympics are:-

1. The recommendation of World Health Organization.
2. The performance of Japan's fight against Corona.
3. the performance of USA and China Korea and India fight against Corona.

Regarding 3. if any of these large population countries has an unacceptable result in the face of World opinion
(never mind actual scientifically established failure) their governments will withdraw and lobby for postponement.

Regarding 2. Japan has an ageing population which is uniquely vulnerable because of that. It will be a brave government which takes the risk of going ahead, especially when the lesson of all that has gone so far reinforces that if you go on being stupid long enough you will pay a high, high price.

Regarding 1. The WHO will be aware of 2. and 3.

I just hope that they can manage to go forward at a later date. The world will need cheering up.

Baal said:

The case fatality rate is the number who eventually die/total infected.

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Reading this more closely we have both been wrong because the CFR is a rate with respect to time.
We are arguing time. See the example here
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate

Yes, the key word is eventually. However, your ratio is still deaths/(deaths+recovered) since (death+recovered) is the number infected. Your number of 0.6% ASSUMES WRONGLY that 0.6% of the new infected will die. So far that is not the case. I am looking at a good estimate for NOW and the future. As the numbers grow the confidence range will narrow.
You surely must know about confidence levels.
What you are trying to say is that the CFR(∞) = 0.6%
That is not right.
What I am saying is that the CFR(t) = ~10%±confidence level where t is now.
This is a dynamic value that will converge on the correct CFR(∞) eventually.
At this time it appears I am calculating the mortality rate as defined here.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate

The only place we can get a remotely accurate estimate is Korea because that is the only place that does enough testing to give an estimate of number infected that is likely to be accurate.
There it is 0.6% last time I checked. That is still a very high number compared to any recent flu.

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But on the John Hopkins website it say that 72 people have died and 510 have recovered. Don't you think that is a good estimate of the final outcome plus or minus a confidence level?

Hasn't anybody taken statistics?

In the US the CDC requires TWO positive tests before they call it confirmed at least a few days ago that was true. People who have all the symptoms cant get tested unless they meet criteria that by now are dumb. This thing is here and spreading.

People with minimal symptoms can shed the virus and infect people at high risk for severe disease.

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Yes, I know. I met a person that was a roofer that caught the flu. It screwed up his heart's ejection fraction so he couldn't work any more. On top of that he had heart attack after heart attack. He died. He was about 45 yo.

I am p!$$ed as he!! because I am 66. You are down playing the severity of this virus. This is a true SHTF moment. Also a black swan event for investments.
I blame China and the WHO.

BTW, the deaths to confirmed cases is now at 0.89% in South Korea according the the John Hopkins site.
That ratio will go up for reason stated in this link.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate

I just got back from shopping. The shelves where the paper towels and toilet paper are were bare.

This sucks.

I dont think I am downplaying it at all. I think this is the most serious public health crisis I can remember and it is just starting here. You in particular are in the most susceptible category. So my advice would be don't even play TT at home with your friends because you are not able to assess their status. That is serious advice, not snark. I'm not playing now. I ride my bike for exercise.

The 0.6% (and now 0.9% ) is the number of people in Korea we know died so far/the total number infected.

As the wiki link you provided notes, the denominator is hard to know. You cant use symptoms because a lot of people dont have many symptoms. In Korea it is based on RT-PCR testing, which is better but still an underestimate because even with their massive testing program, it is certain that they are missing some people who are infected. So then the actual CFR would be lower. BUT on the other hand we dont know the final death toll. If a lot of currently infected people will die later, we are underestimating the CFR. It turns out, people die of ARDS, and it seems that this typically occurs within a week or two of symptom onset. Lots unknown. But I still go with 1% overall and higher if you are older. And don't get confident because plenty of young people have died already.

Total recovery is defined as no detectable virus by PCR test. A lot of people who will survive this are not yet free of the vurus entirely. That is a lagging indicator.

Yes. This sucks.

Yep. I underestimated this for a while. Now I am realizing, this is one of the most serious public health crises of our time. The HIV/AIDS crises was big; more deadly, but not anything I was ever personally afraid of even though I knew people affected by it. And, there was a time when, if you got it, you died.

But this, COVID-19, it looks like a giant percentage of the entire human population will get it. And there is no telling if you can get it repeatedly or if you get it once, and most of the time, you are done with it. Because I have seen information on how, some people seemed to have gotten over it and then got it again. Although, in the cases I read about, it is unclear if they fully recovered or just thought they had.

And, since there are so many countries in the southern hemisphere that have cases of COVID-19, it is hard to tell if this will stick around in the warmer temperatures or recede only to reemerge in the fall.

And I do have to say, if brokenball is in the Washington State area, then he really has been on the front lines of this in the USA. So I am really glad he has been taking precautions and has stayed virus free to date.

Third BBA player, this one on Pistons, had tested positive. They played the Jazz the other night.