Caronavirus & Tokyo 2020

[Der_Echte]

I think Baal is talking common sense about BB's situation. I believe he is also right in stating that there are not enough data to make exact numbers - too many unknowns or things that will not be known later. I think Baal has the available numbers in the proper perspective.

We have enough time and data that supports what Baal has been saying
- older people and those with weakened immune systems are faring worse
- people should take common sense precautions
- people should be careful and not freek out

It is really gunna suck in a lot of ways for a lot of people's lives that there will be voluntary or mandatory work shut down and loss of income. We know a lot of people are already behind, not just month to month. Getting through as a nation will take a lot of cooperation among citizens - USA is capable of it.

The measures we take to prevent and contain Corona are also effective in helping out the problems we have in virus/bacteria deaths. Maybe longer term, better awareness of how virus and bacteria spread will get larger numbers of the public to consistently do better in the areas of hygiene/personal/public behavior that will lead to lesser fatalities.

 

[brokenball]

But this, COVID-19, it looks like a giant percentage of the entire human population will get it.

I object to calling the the COVID-19 virus. This is a name that the incompetent WHO came up with so it didn't offend the CCP.

Wuhan and the CCP deserve full credit. Call it the Wuhan virus.

 

[AndySmith]

I object to calling the the COVID-19 virus. This is a name that the incompetent WHO came up with so it didn't offend the CCP.

Wuhan and the CCP deserve full credit. Call it the Wuhan virus.

C19 is just a scientific categorising term. Asking to refer to it as Wuhan is a political decision.

I understand the urge to find someone/thing to blame, but I don't think it does any good right now. The Wuhan horse has bolted, and perhaps it was never possible to contain it in a globalised world anyway. But all labelling it in this way doesn't achieve anything constructive at this time. It will increase xenophobic attacks in an ignorant public, and divert attention away from the sorely lacking threat response you've seen from your own government. If political pressure should be applied, it should be to the institutions who left you sorely unprepared for the pandemic you find yourself in now. Because that pressure might actually achieve constructive action now.

Messaging to the public is really important. You have a totally unreliable president who cannot be trusted when he opens his mouth. Only a few weeks ago he called C19 a hoax Then he tried to use it as a way to paint his opponents as scaremongers. What you'll find is that, as people are asked to make sacrifices and isolate themselves, the public will resist and they will say "I feel fine", "it's just the flu", "this is america - I'll do what I want", "you're just scaremongering". They will resist attempts to prevent them from spreading the virus, the rate of infection goes up too fast, healthcare gets overwhelmed. At-risk people will die, unnecessarily, and the root cause of this is people not following sensible medical advice because trust and faith in institutions has eroded.

I'm sure people will be studying China's response to the initial outbreak, and the WHO's subsequent actions, for many years. Hindsight will be wonderful. But preparing the world for a future where this kind of cross-species pandemic is more likely (due to changing human living conditions and behaviour) is hard. It requires lots of cooperation between governments, it requires giving poorer countries help to lift their healthcare up to a better standard, information sharing and openness. So people in developed nations need to lead the way, and not vote for people who are more likely to go to war with these countries, for science deniers, and for manifestly stupid people.

 

[yoass]

Been reading up, and found https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca to be an excellent analysis.

‘If you want your city or your country to be part of the 4%, don’t do anything today.’

 

[Baal]

The actual name of the virus is SARS-CoV-2. Severe acute respirstory syndrome coronavirus 2. This nomenclature was developed by virologists. Covid-19 refers to the respiratory disease it produces.

A name like "Wuhan virus" is popular among people in the US who (a) are responsible for failing to prepare the US for the inevitable spread here during the several weeks period that they had, (b) defunded pandemic disease preparedness, (c) have been lying about numbers of infections and likely spread in the US for political purposes, (d) muzzled scientists, (e) and who are fundamentally racist in outlook.

If you want to associate yourself with those people by using a term like Wuhan virus, maybe because you watch Fox News, that is your choice.

 

[yoass]

… and then Ba'al nailed it.

 

[zeio]

 

[Baal]

In the US people are being far too complacent. Nearly everybody.

 

[pingpongpaddy]

going forward its counterproductive to wallow in blaming the trumpian attitude. learn the lessons from his stupidity but lets not be complacent ourselves. Going forward its our actions which are key

 

[brokenball]

I think Baal is talking common sense about BB's situation.

No he isn't. He is neglecting that many of infected will die. In Korea the rate is 72 out of ( 72+510).
That is using numbers from a source Baal suggested.
The infected are pending an out come. Why can't people understand this?
Granted, the ratio now will not be the final ratio but like I said, it is a good estimate with a confidence interval. This is similar to a Rating Central rating where you get a rating with a standard deviation. Th more games you play the smaller the standard deviation. RC does claim to be absolutely accurate.

Using the current data from the website Baal suggested the death rate is 0.89%. 72/8086.
If no one else gets infected to you really believe that the ALL the rest of the infected will survive so the number stays at 0.89%? Baloney. That won't happen unless South Korea finds a miracle cure. So far it looks like 72/(72+510) will die if the current rate keeps up. It probably will go down as knowledge is gained.

The South Korea numbers haven't been updated lately so I looked for more current data.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/
Now the death rate is 75/(75+834) so the ratio is going down but is still high.
Notice the two ares of active and closed cases. The number of active cases, infected, is dropping as their outcomes are determined.

 

[UpSideDownCarl]

No he isn't. He is neglecting that many of infected will die. In Korea the rate is 72 out of ( 72+510).
That is using numbers from a source Baal suggested.
The infected are pending an out come. Why can't people understand this?
Granted, the ratio now will not be the final ratio but like I said, it is a good estimate with a confidence interval. This is similar to a Rating Central rating where you get a rating with a standard deviation. Th more games you play the smaller the standard deviation. RC does claim to be absolutely accurate.

Using the current data from the website Baal suggested the death rate is 0.89%. 72/8086.
If no one else gets infected to you really believe that the ALL the rest of the infected will survive so the number stays at 0.89%? Baloney. That won't happen unless South Korea finds a miracle cure. So far it looks like 72/(72+510) will die if the current rate keeps up. It probably will go down as knowledge is gained.

The South Korea numbers haven't been updated lately so I looked for more current data.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/
Now the death rate is 75/(75+834) so the ratio is going down but is still high.
Notice the two ares of active and closed cases. The number of active cases, infected, is dropping as their outcomes are determined.

BrokenBall, nobody is out to get you. We all hope you are able to stay safe and know you are in a state where the virus has been most active and active earliest in USA. Your numbers may be very accurate. I would say, they are probably as close to accurate as any presented.

Lets not get too worked up about the numbers when, right now, trying to stay safe and not get the virus is most likely the most important issue. So, all the recommendations on washing hands, hand sanitizing, not touching your face, social distancing....all the things that make it harder to catch the virus. Of course, if you can self isolate, that adds to the protection.

 

[diavolo]

In the article Yoass posted, they are actually adressing the two rates you are discussing.

 

[Der_Echte]

BB, I believe that Baal has been consistent in working with the data available and with reasonable conclusions of its POTENTIAL to be higher if more data shows it. I do not believe he is malicious to anyone. In a sense, we both tell it like we see it, anyone can see this over time.

He has disagreed with my outlook (which was we have issues with communicable disease that have for years been much higher magnitude that are not being effectively addressed, but the measures to address corona address these) and I have had my times where I do not see it like he does, yet we have been civil and concerned. I believe he is civil and concerned with you.

We both live in an area where there is just a little more of this going around than the average place and I believe Baal is shooting straight as he sees it and can apply his reasoning.

We do not have all data and may never have it. There is only so much testing performed. I doubt we will have enough tests for 2-3 times for each American in our country. There is enough data to show that this is significantly more deadly in percentage of infected to dead than the average of the strains of flu we have has the last decade. You also believe it is more deadly. Essentially, we all agree it is deadly and we have to do what is right to keep immune system strong, avoid and minimize exposure, and do our part to not spread it.

We are obviously going to have our challenges in a number of ways. I believe we have enough in us to get through it without a total collapse of society. It is going to require a good deal of help to each other on a lot of levels.

 

[tropical]

Xi Jingping and his gang is a bunch of clowns. Ironically, this bunch of clowns exposes other clowns in other countries (our POTUS and his gang is a clear example). I have a friend escaped from Wuhan on the 1st day of Lunar Newyear by taking a taxi to Shanghai airport. She volunteered into self-isolation for 14 days. There were thousands of people like her. Why didn't our government understand how serious the virus is in order to screen and quarantine all people from abroad coming to US right after Wuhan lock-down? I also have many friends claiming "this is just another flu". F..k them all! People are dying left and right and now Italy ignored all >80 y/o patients to have enough ventilators for others. I am not panicking but I worry for my old mother and relatives as US might come to the same decision like Italy.

 

[Baal]

I teresting thing is to compare death rates in Hubei (4% or maybe more) compared to other Chinese provinces (much less). Italy now is like Hubei. Their hospitals cant cope so people die. It is a disaster.

I pretty much despise Xi Jinping and his neo-Maoism. They made bad things worse in Hubei. But they did a better job in limiting things in other parts of China using draconian measures. More of that would be helpful here. Sooner.

Please, take a break from TT, bars, restaurants, churches. It is the ONLY thing you can really do that matters.

As Tropical said, there are multiple clowns in leadership positions. Ours have been exposed. Again. His entire post is spot on.

 

[NextLevel]

Xi Jingping and his gang is a bunch of clowns. Ironically, this bunch of clowns exposes other clowns in other countries (our POTUS and his gang is a clear example). I have a friend escaped from Wuhan on the 1st day of Lunar Newyear by taking a taxi to Shanghai airport. She volunteered into self-isolation for 14 days. There were thousands of people like her. Why didn't our government understand how serious the virus is in order to screen and quarantine all people from abroad coming to US right after Wuhan lock-down? I also have many friends claiming "this is just another flu". F..k them all! People are dying left and right and now Italy ignored all >80 y/o patients to have enough ventilators for others. I am not panicking but I worry for my old mother and relatives as US might come to the same decision like Italy.

People die left and right because of the flu too. You just don't care about them.

 

[Baal]

If the hospital system is overwhelmed with this pandemic, many more people will die of flu also!!!!! The cause of death in flu is acute respiratory distress syndrome, same as SARS-Cov-2. The ICU protocol to save these people is the same. The pathophysiology that leads to pneumonia is very similar once either of these viruses enter cells in the lungs. So this is a crisis for anyone with flu who might not get access to limited infrastructure they need to survive. And for anyone else with a respiratory crisis, sepsis, actually any critical illness.

To say that Tropical doesnt care about people with flu is a really uncalled for remark. It is one thing to be contrarian. It is another thing to be insulting for no reason.

 

[tropical]

I don't need to list the differences between flu and Covid-19 viruses as we all can Google them. I think at least with flu we have enough knowledge and vaccines but we know very little about this one. Deaths from flu are caused by bacteria pneumonia and heart attacks while with this virus deaths are caused by liquid-filled in damaged lung which affects breathing. I think we understand how to treat pneumonia but not this breathing difficulty without ventilators.

 

[Baal]

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is the most common cause of death in both influenza and coronavirus. The underlying mechanism involves diffuse injury to cells which form the barrier of the microscopic air sacs of the lungs (alveoli),surfactant dysfunction, activation of the immune system, and dysfunction of the body's regulation of blood clotting. ARDS impairs the lungs' ability to exchange oxygen and carbon dioxide. During ARDS the alveoli fill with protein rich fluid. As Tropical noted, sometimes in influenza this can occur as a result of a secondary bacterial infection. In response to the lung dysfunction there will usually be a substantial acidosis. This can trigger other problems including fatal cardiac arrythmias.

Pneumonia and ARDS are not exactly the same thing, ARDS is much more severe, but severe pneumonia is a major cause of ARDS.

ARDS has high death rate regardless of its cause.

 

[NextLevel]

If the hospital system is overwhelmed with this pandemic, many more people will die of flu also!!!!! The cause of death in flu is acute respiratory distress syndrome, same as SARS-Cov-2. The ICU protocol to save these people is the same. The pathophysiology that leads to pneumonia is very similar once either of these viruses enter cells in the lungs. So this is a crisis for anyone with flu who might not get access to limited infrastructure they need to survive. And for anyone else with a respiratory crisis, sepsis, actually any critical illness.

To say that Tropical doesnt care about people with flu is a really uncalled for remark. It is one thing to be contrarian. It is another thing to be insulting for no reason.

This is bull. When you say something is more serious than the flu, you have to have an objective basis in fact. This is not more serious than the flu. People are dying does precisely the same reasons. It is only uncalled for in the sense that you do not agree. This is not more serious than the flu. The main issue is that people don't have immunity shots for this, but some of this goes back to the crappy lifestyle and diets that we have been advocating to people that lead to their developing high blood pressure and diabetes and makes them unable to fight diseases.

If tropical wants to state that this is more dangerous than the flu that is his prerogative. If he wants to say that people who disagree are speaking bull, then you have to stop being sensitive when he is disagreed with in the language he uses.