Caronavirus & Tokyo 2020

langel said:

Ball or someone else, can you please find some more info about this clinical research:

http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=48880

Here is a list of all drugs testing:

https://laegemiddelstyrelsen.dk/da/...~/media/5B83D25935DF43A38FF823E24604AC36.ashx

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I already posted the first one a bit further up this thread. It was the very small randomized clinical trial with only thirty patients showing that hydroxychloroquine didn't have an effect. Disappointing but it was very small and none of the patients had severe form of the disease. Not definitive by any means, but still a bit depressing.

The second is a very useful list of all the studies currently going on. The good news is that because Covid-19 runs its course fairly quickly, and there are many patients to study, we should get some answers pretty soon.

A source I use a lot is clinicaltrials.gov

One challenge at the moment is that it takes a bit of time to get published research onto the PubMed database at NCBI (only peer reviewed stuff gets there) and finding preprints is not so easy. Physics has a better system for that than medicine.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/white...icize-china-for-coronavirus-cover-up?ref=home

A State Department cable obtained by The Daily Beast says the U.S. and the American people are the “greatest humanitarians the world has ever known.”

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBylyNbHkcQ&lc=Ugw2ZD7jwrpksnEqAph4AaABAg

https://www.ruv.is/frett/two-types-of-covid-19-in-one-individual

Very bad news/ COVID genome got morphed/

Baal said:

I already posted the first one a bit further up this thread. It was the very small randomized clinical trial with only thirty patients showing that hydroxychloroquine didn't have an effect. Disappointing but it was very small and none of the patients had severe form of the disease. Not definitive by any means, but still a bit depressing.

The second is a very useful list of all the studies currently going on. The good news is that because Covid-19 runs its course fairly quickly, and there are many patients to study, we should get some answers pretty soon.

A source I use a lot is clinicaltrials.gov

One challenge at the moment is that it takes a bit of time to get published research onto the PubMed database at NCBI (only peer reviewed stuff gets there) and finding preprints is not so easy. Physics has a better system for that than medicine.

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Yes, I saw your post about the research, but what I shared is for another research in Wuhan on two groups with 100 patients in each. Don't know if the results are published.

Meanwhile here in Bulgaria all hospitalized patients are treated with a clinical form of hydroxychloroquine sulfate produced in France. We have about 30 patients in hospitals.

Edit - 40 patients already.

This is interesting even if only a simulation.

https://www.cityam.com/coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-uk-population-according-to-experts/

NextLevel said:

This is interesting even if only a simulation.

https://www.cityam.com/coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-uk-population-according-to-experts/

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If the Oxford model is correct, why not Wuhan, Lombardy, Madrid, and potentially NYC? What makes them different?

Check out the comments on FT.

And this, https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-infections-oxford-study-immunity

Langel, you are right. Different study. I cant find results yet.

igorponger said:

https://www.ruv.is/frett/two-types-of-covid-19-in-one-individual

Very bad news/ COVID genome got morphed/

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Not really bad news. Virus genomes change reasonably quickly and we already knew about multiple variants. It's only bad if a new form emerges that is even more dangerous and so far no real evidence of that. By the way, I know the Icelandic fellow who made that discovery. At one point briefly in the 1990s we were working in the same department in the US.

Baal, my estimates have been a lot closer to the truth than yours.
I have referenced
https://ncov2019.live/data
they are not my numbers.
I have used the John Hopkins number which you recommended.
As usual there ad hominem attacks with out facts.
Now look at the data. USDC has admitted that he under estimated the severity of this CCP virus.
The mortality rate is even higher now that the bogus Chinese numbers aren't getting to be a smaller part of the total.

Pingpongpaddy, you watch too much fake news. The problem is too many people can not tell the difference like the a post above that wants to blame Trump for the deaths of the people that took the fish tank cleaner.

That person that blamed Trump was repeating what he heard. See this:
Tim Pool leans left but he is not crazy. I trust Jimmy Dore to some extent too. He is or was a Bernie supporter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4qzobg7aWc&t=95s
The problem is that the media will repeat the lies that others have posted and too many can't tell the difference.
CNN and MSNBC's ratings have dropped significantly because many people realize they are fake news.

Chloroquinine was mentioned on this forum before Trump ever mentioned it. Maybe we should blame this forum too? Just kidding. I am pretty sure I was taking something like chloroquinine when I as in India. I survived and I didn't get malaria.

I show links to evidence. Most of you only post opinions or repeat fake news.

One thing that makes getting numbers for this as of now, is that there are so many people who have it but have not been tested in European countries and in the US and so they do now show up on the confirmed cases list.

But, I don't know, if someone can figure out how to account for those numbers somewhat accurately, then it would be more possible to get a mortality percentage. I am not so sure it matters as much as getting people safe and through this with as few people getting it as possible for, until there are effective treatments and/or vaccines. So, for the next 2 or so years.

If we don't know how many people are walking around with the virus in them, it is really hard to make accurate models. The only place that came close is Korea.

It certainly doesn’t help that given shortage of test capacity only the seriously ill get tested. That skews the statistics in ways difficult to quantify.

I personally know somebody with high fever for over a week, and severe trouble breathing. Yet not critical enough for hospitalisation, so: untested. Anecdotal, certainly. Yet certainly also quite common.

Best guess from available data and a good understanding of current models is that the true global mortality rate is less than 1%. Simple calculations based on reported cases miss a substantial fraction of people who get infected but never need a doctor. These calculations, which are the usual ones reported in the papers, are useless. Models try to account for the missing data, but without more testing (especially serological testing) there's still a lot of guesswork. Not even the South Korean data is close to adequate. Many experts think the unreported group is at least an order of magnitude larger than the reported numbers. No guarantee this will turn out to be the case, but it's at least pointing in the right direction.

None of which reduces the magnitude of the problem. There are still too many patients who need a hospital bed, and especially too many who will need a ventilator. Those are really the only numbers that count at this point.

When we get a comprehensive testing regime up and running, we'll get actionable numbers that can guide political decisions about who/what/where/when to isolate, track, lock down, etc. Until then the only responsible thing is to assume the worst. Absent further displays of breathtaking incompetence, it shouldn't be more than a few weeks until we start to have useful testing data.

Meanwhile, we'll start to see meaningful preliminary data on antivirals by the end of April. I'm least pessimistic about Remdesivir.

Still can't expect a vaccine before the end of the year. Most likely well into next year or later.

I'm most optimistic about passive antibody therapy. In fact, I'd be surprised if this doesn't end up helping a lot of patients. The problem for now is we can only harvest useful antibodies from recently recovered patients. The solution is to identify the most useful antibodies and manufacture them on an industrial scale. Lots of biotech companies are working on this right now; we might see useful results later this year.

I completely agree with Dr. Evil on all of these points. I'm starting to think he's not actually evil.

Case fatality rate requires that you know both the number of cases and the number of those who die in the fullness of time. Number of cases is without doubt far higher than can be proven. Fatality is a lagging indicator but not by too much. People are typically reaching an end stage in two weeks or less. Those people are sadly a lot easier to count.

Unfortunately the incompetence will not becabsent.

Baal said:

If we don't know how many people are walking around with the virus in them, it is really hard to make accurate models. The only place that came close is Korea.

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Even the Korea testing capacity is not enough for a widespread test of 51 million people, they have a capacity of 15.000-20.000 test per day according to some reports. The german laboratories have a current capacity of 58.000 tests per day, last week they made 260.000 CoV-2 tests they told. This isn't enough either for a widespread test of 83 million people. The mortality rate isn't the big issue, the big trouble comes when the healthcare system collapses due to limited intensive care beds and breathing equipment of too many seriously infected people at the same time. In Spain and Italy the healthcare system collapsed, there are too many infected people.

mrk said:

Even the Korea testing capacity is not enough for a widespread test of 51 million people, they have a capacity of 15.000-20.000 test per day according to some reports. The german laboratories have a current capacity of 58.000 tests per day, last week they made 260.000 CoV-2 tests they told. This isn't enough either for a widespread test of 83 million people. The mortality rate isn't the big issue, the big trouble comes when the healthcare system collapses due to limited intensive care beds and breathing equipment of too many seriously infected people at the same time. In Spain and Italy the healthcare system collapsed, there are too many infected people.

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I agree with this too, all of it. I shouldnt have said "comes close". Even they were certainly underestimating total cases a lot. I was trying to say though that their estimate of case fatality rate was a better guess than most.

Problem is though with some of the monstrosities being discussed here we could easily become Spain or Italy. Exactly for the reason mrk said.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Just some pissed off Italians replacing EU with Chinese Flag <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/coronavirus?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#coronavirus</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/COVID19?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#COVID19</a> <a href="https://t.co/HfOnaxk2cT">pic.twitter.com/HfOnaxk2cT</a></p>— Carl Zha (@CarlZha) <a href="https://twitter.com/CarlZha/status/1242213967365165057?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 23, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Its more like the Stockholm syndrome.
Sory

https://www.businessinsider.com/tru...ould-stop-airing-coronavirus-briefings-2020-3

On Tuesday, KUOW, a Seattle-area NPR station, also announced it would not broadcast the briefings live "due to a pattern of false or misleading information."

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Should've done it weeks ago and just do it like below.

Me: Smells glue and tastes rubber...

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-...ell-taste-loss-ent-asymptomatic-a9418151.html