Is Chinese TT just going to go downhill from here?

[sebi]

just to understand if we are talking about the same thing, since i am from germany. are we talking... football? or soccer. Because tbh football is such a niche sport here and almost noone cares besides very few special snowflakes. i personallt dont kow anyone who is interested in football or plays football. its primarily an american phenomenon. Same as noone in germany is interested in baseball.

Fußball.

 

[M51]

Linking handegg makes one a "special snowflake?"

How so?

 

[t95mwp]

Chinese... Downhill.

Maybe start by defining what is downhill, maybe I have a different understanding of what downhill means.

I do not think that today's Tik Tok generation has the same motivation and patriotism as the players 20 years ago.

 

[zeio]

I was a big fan of Ma Lin and Wang Liqin. But Ma Long and FZD's consistency is just above everyone else. But you are right, LSD is still young and has the very potential to become the next great.

Downhill or not. Hope this sport will get more attention and money worldwide.

ML was still losing matches that he should've won until World Cup 2012 (he talked about that loss in the post-match interview after winning World Cup 2015) when he was 23.9 years old. He still had a difficult time beating LSS at ATTC 2013 (losing the previous match at Korea Open 2012). He didn't become unbeatable-esque until 2014 (almost 26 at that point) and JSH gave him one last fight at Asian Games 2014. The year 2014 also marked the end of an era where WLQ, MLin and WH (and to a lesser extent, Chen Qi and Hao Shuai) weathered the storm for ZJK, ML and XX, at which point FZD was already making a name for himself, wedging between the likes of YA, FB and ZY as well as LGY and LJK.

LSD is doing better than ML at the same age in another aspect. He has been shouldering the burden of 3 events (MS, MD and XD) since 2022, practically from the start of his career.

 

[RefereeNumber2]

IMO this is not some big mystery; it's pretty clear if you study the table tennis matches from 10-15 years ago versus today. The top CNT men used to have a much bigger edge over the competition in sheer physicality. Many of their top opponents were guys like Samsonov, Maze, Mizutani, Oh Sang Eun, etc. ... all great talents but they simply didn't physically impose themselves in the match the way the top Chinese men did. There were a handful of dangerous players like Boll, Ryu Seung Min, Ovtcharov, Lee Sangsu, etc. who could physically match up, but since the top Chinese players could routinely beat almost everyone else, it was still very tough to win a title since you'd have to likely beat multiple top Chinese men in a single event. Add to that there were fewer big events so the CNT players could take long training breaks and ensure being in top physical shape.

The CNT edge in physicality is much smaller now, and I don't think it's because the Chinese men are less physical than previous generations (perhaps except for prime Fan Zhendong who was/is extraordinary). Now there are guys like Hugo and Tomo at the top of the rankings, but even many guys down the ranks like Rassenfosse who are not physically outmatched against the Chinese. This makes upsets more likely since you can't reliably fall back on turning the match into a physical rallying and shot quality contest if you're in a tough spot or having a bad day. And btw, another way to see this is to realize that it's not just top Chinese players that have become more vulnerable to upsets, it's everyone. The amount of depth of physical ability on the tour is just much greater now.

Part of this probably has to do with the heavier ball and new harder/hybrid rubbers, which have allowed players to absorb and match the shot quality that used to only be possible with Chinese rubbers. Training methods have also improved as the sport has become more professionalized outside of China and started to adapt things from the Chinese as well as other areas of sports science. China still has a number of advantages -- they have a larger talent pool than any other country and they still pay more resources into their development and training than other countries. But this is a different era of the sport and it's just not realistic to expect the same level of dominance from China as there used to be.

Just an example: some folks here may remember a French player called Adrien Mattenet. He reached the top 20 and I believe was French #1 back around 2011, so he was a legit presence on the world stage. Here is a quarterfinal he played against Zhang Jike at the World Cup in 2011.

This type of match between a CNT player and foreigner used to be routine. How often do you see any match played with rallies like this nowadays, let alone in the quarterfinal of a major event? The sport outside of China has come a long way in the last 15 years.

 

[M51]

Zhang Jike's quads deserve a thread of their own.

Don't skip leg day, kids!

 

[Matt Hetherington]

I'd like to hear the Chinese perspective on this. I can certainly see how the younger female audience would find Wang Chuqin and Lin GaoYuan appealing (both are cuties, tbh), but...

The others don't exactly have charisma, to put it generously.

The chinese audience don’t seem to care about charisma 🤣

 

[NextLevel]

ML was still losing matches that he should've won until World Cup 2012 (he talked about that loss in the post-match interview after winning World Cup 2015) when he was 23.9 years old. He still had a difficult time beating LSS at ATTC 2013 (losing the previous match at Korea Open 2012). He didn't become unbeatable-esque until 2014 (almost 26 at that point) and JSH gave him one last fight at Asian Games 2014. The year 2014 also marked the end of an era where WLQ, MLin and WH (and to a lesser extent, Chen Qi and Hao Shuai) weathered the storm for ZJK, ML and XX, at which point FZD was already making a name for himself, wedging between the likes of YA, FB and ZY as well as LGY and LJK.

LSD is doing better than ML at the same age in another aspect. He has been shouldering the burden of 3 events (MS, MD and XD) since 2022, practically from the start of his career.

People forget that up until the arrival of the plastic ball, Ma Long was very susceptible to spinny and consistent backhand attacks if you could control his serve and attack game. And you are right, ML never really played XD, you would have thought Ding Ning and he were a natural partnership and they did play together a few rare times, but XD wasn't an Olympic event then either, so it never got the time it would have deserved.

 

[NextLevel]

Zhang Jike's quads deserve a thread of their own.

Don't skip leg day, kids!

Nobody beats Gacina.

 

[Tony's Table Tennis]

IMO this is not some big mystery; it's pretty clear if you study the table tennis matches from 10-15 years ago versus today. The top CNT men used to have a much bigger edge over the competition in sheer physicality. Many of their top opponents were guys like Samsonov, Maze, Mizutani, Oh Sang Eun, etc. ... all great talents but they simply didn't physically impose themselves in the match the way the top Chinese men did. There were a handful of dangerous players like Boll, Ryu Seung Min, Ovtcharov, Lee Sangsu, etc. who could physically match up, but since the top Chinese players could routinely beat almost everyone else, it was still very tough to win a title since you'd have to likely beat multiple top Chinese men in a single event. Add to that there were fewer big events so the CNT players could take long training breaks and ensure being in top physical shape.

The CNT edge in physicality is much smaller now, and I don't think it's because the Chinese men are less physical than previous generations (perhaps except for prime Fan Zhendong who was/is extraordinary). Now there are guys like Hugo and Tomo at the top of the rankings, but even many guys down the ranks like Rassenfosse who are not physically outmatched against the Chinese. This makes upsets more likely since you can't reliably fall back on turning the match into a physical rallying and shot quality contest if you're in a tough spot or having a bad day. And btw, another way to see this is to realize that it's not just top Chinese players that have become more vulnerable to upsets, it's everyone. The amount of depth of physical ability on the tour is just much greater now.

the physical - body muscle strength was actually a discussion topic within China.
I do think there is some merits to it.
That discussion was of the Ma Wang Wang era
and we all know how strong and fit Wang Liqin is.

then we had ZJK which was a freak and Ma Long was extremely fit.
Then came the current bunch.

Part of this probably has to do with the heavier ball and new harder/hybrid rubbers, which have allowed players to absorb and match the shot quality that used to only be possible with Chinese rubbers. Training methods have also improved as the sport has become more professionalized outside of China and started to adapt things from the Chinese as well as other areas of sports science. China still has a number of advantages -- they have a larger talent pool than any other country and they still pay more resources into their development and training than other countries. But this is a different era of the sport and it's just not realistic to expect the same level of dominance from China as there used to be.

rubber does play a role - I agree
China's H3 domination is not the same with Koreans adapting to it and many Asian practice partners using it.
and the success of some ESN products are all these hybrids.
so can't deny there is merit here.

Just an example: some folks here may remember a French player called Adrien Mattenet. He reached the top 20 and I believe was French #1 back around 2011, so he was a legit presence on the world stage. Here is a quarterfinal he played against Zhang Jike at the World Cup in 2011.

This type of match between a CNT player and foreigner used to be routine. How often do you see any match played with rallies like this nowadays, let alone in the quarterfinal of a major event? The sport outside of China has come a long way in the last 15 years.

I agree with you too.
CNT used to be the main attackers, while many other opponents was defending more.
Ryu won the OG by attacking
today, everyone is attacking CNT mens,
We can call it technique, rubber, or even the likes of having more chinese styled training partners, even the bigger ball, I'm sure it all plays a part.

 

[Tony's Table Tennis]

People forget that up until the arrival of the plastic ball, Ma Long was very susceptible to spinny and consistent backhand attacks if you could control his serve and attack game. And you are right, ML never really played XD, you would have thought Ding Ning and he were a natural partnership and they did play together a few rare times, but XD wasn't an Olympic event then either, so it never got the time it would have deserved.

yeah XD was never a thing before.
There is indeed a lot more burden now.

that is why I am shouting quality over quantity, so the players don't get burned
but zeio disagrees with this and probably feel burdening players is good, but now he says LSD and burden in the same sentence. So it sounds like zeio is now agreeing with me that there is too much burden.
PS, OG is a huge burden too, with more events between the same amount of players.

a truth is, LSD and WCQ, both young, are on their own.
Burned out and burden forced out FZD - if he stayed another 2 years, CNT will be in a much healthier state.

Ma Long could of gone 3 years ago, and CNT would be in bigger trouble.
but his 10 million cny deals (and he had many of them) was just too attractive, and staying on the extra 1 to 2 years has made him more money than the previous few years added together.

 

[Yurifi]

I read a comment in one of FB table tennis groups, that ITTF basically effed up Chinese table tennis with getting the ball bigger ... but ... the bigger ball need exactly what Chinese players are playing with - harder, tacky rubbers. the rest of the world had much more adapting to do, because there was first adaptation to the ball and then also adapting to tacky and hard rubber. but that's not the topic here ...

where I see CNT problem is - no creativity at all. Lin Shidong has it a bit, yes, and especially the young Wen Rubio (he really amazed me during European Smash, if he will practice hard, the table tennis future is bright for him!) - but the rest, I see too much "automatisation", too much "roboticism", if you understand me. Truls, he improvises a lot. Gauzy, same. they want to perform strokes just like the big book of table tennis technique says it has to be done and that's it ... but what is happening now? well, without these adaptations, you can only play 0 or 1. and Chinese are playing hard 1. full power all the time. and then you get Truls, or Gauzy, or Lebrun brothers, who can mix different strokes, different power and rotations within one point, and they are in trouble, heavy trouble.

CNT needs more creativity.

 

[sebi]

I read a comment in one of FB table tennis groups, that ITTF basically effed up Chinese table tennis with getting the ball bigger ... but ... the bigger ball need exactly what Chinese players are playing with - harder, tacky rubbers. the rest of the world had much more adapting to do, because there was first adaptation to the ball and then also adapting to tacky and hard rubber. but that's not the topic here ...

where I see CNT problem is - no creativity at all. Lin Shidong has it a bit, yes, and especially the young Wen Rubio (he really amazed me during European Smash, if he will practice hard, the table tennis future is bright for him!) - but the rest, I see too much "automatisation", too much "roboticism", if you understand me. Truls, he improvises a lot. Gauzy, same. they want to perform strokes just like the big book of table tennis technique says it has to be done and that's it ... but what is happening now? well, without these adaptations, you can only play 0 or 1. and Chinese are playing hard 1. full power all the time. and then you get Truls, or Gauzy, or Lebrun brothers, who can mix different strokes, different power and rotations within one point, and they are in trouble, heavy trouble.

CNT needs more creativity.

I agree with that. If you look at ma long or fzd they also where creative. Either with chop blocks or Ma Long with different flicks. Also as stated by dima ma long could probably still can, decide on every ball if he plays long and fast or slow and spinny.
Right now WCQ just trys to overpower everybody. Lin Shidong is a bit more creative but only when he is behind lobbying. Also every Chinese No.1 player was a forehand player, lin shidong is more backhand oriented and his forehand is his weak point. Not sure how this contributes but it's different.

 

[Tony's Table Tennis]

I read a comment in one of FB table tennis groups, that ITTF basically effed up Chinese table tennis with getting the ball bigger ... but ... the bigger ball need exactly what Chinese players are playing with - harder, tacky rubbers. the rest of the world had much more adapting to do, because there was first adaptation to the ball and then also adapting to tacky and hard rubber. but that's not the topic here ...

ittf wants to make the game slower - for audience to follow
they have succeeded in making it slower. Not sure if audience has increased...
but manufactures counter this with technology and boosters.

also note, CNT is blessed with its state backed resources.
DHS is one of the biggest makers of balls. There is no official stats, but if someone was to claim DHS makes more balls than all other factories together, I won't be surprised (taking 3 star balls).

So, 1 year before the 40+ ball was launched, I got test samples of the 1st gen 40+ balls. Some international players at that time still didn't get, while I got a few.... think about it.
So, that time, I discovered CNT B team has already been training with the 40+ balls for over a year. So my calculations was they got the new ball before launch by around 2 to 2.5 years, and more than 1 to 1.5 years before many international players.

B team is the junior team.
While the A team didn't use because A team was still playing internationals with the 40mm ball
the B team was experiment lab, if we can call it.
And from B teams experiment, CNT changed how they trained, how they hit the ball, changed strokes, changes training schedules - to include my physical (by hiring westerners - one from the NBA).

while other countries got the new ball samples, CNT A team had a whole new package in placed already.
It was not a fair transitioning period.

DHS benefited greatly to 40+ balls I may add.

CNT needs more creativity.

I fully agree.