What would top players Usatt rating be?

[ThePongCommenter]

I remember watching this match and really going for Ma! It's hard with such a small sample size though. I've taken plenty of USATT 2000 players to the 5th game but they are all at least 250 points higher than me. Wondering how much Felix was "playing down" and how much Ma was "playing up" on that particular day.

I'm probably not saying anything you don't already know but when two players of a large skill gap play, the first match they have together will usually be the one when there is most chance of a upset or a closer than expected score. If Jinbao played F. Lebrun 10 more times, it would probably be 3-0 or maybe 3-1 every time.

 

[zeio]

3000 is about right for the cream of the crop.

For reference, ITTF rating and Ratings Central for select top CNT players:
https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/fo...st-peak-elo-rating-all-time.35800/post-492031

 

[Tony's Table Tennis]

herewith German TTR
somewhat accurate imo (taking in ITTF/WTT and German League win/loss), other than juniors where they could get up to 80 ttr points for free (bonus) per year, due to the system thinking their are juniors, so can improve by that much

 

[Grumms]

Top Usatt players like Kou Lei and Ma Jinbao are 2800.

What would WCQ or FZD or LSD be?

Maybe 3000? 3100? 3200?

More 3600. They would win all the games against the 2800.

 

[Tony's Table Tennis]

More 3600. They would win all the games against the 2800.

they will likely end up growing by 5 points per win.
to grow by 300 to 500 points, they need to win 100 times....
lol

 

[Grumms]

they will likely end up growing by 5 points per win.
to grow by 300 to 500 points, they need to win 100 times....
lol

And that's ok. In chess, best computers have an ELO 800 points higher than Carslen. But I underestimated Kou Lei real level, he could win some games again WCQ if the latter is in a bad day.

 

[Der_Echte]

That seems right. But for a 2800 vs 3000 player, what is his odds of winning a match? 15%?

Would Ma Jinbao really stand a 15% chance against FZD?

Hi TB,

The gap between 2800 and 300 is so huge it is difficult to describe.

Of course there could be things going on well and not well for individual players... so there could be SOME chance a 2800 wins vs a 3000, but that is highly unlikely.

A 2800 level player has to train ridiculously hard from maybe the best coaches a couple years in the best of conditions to grow their match level 50 points... unless there was some unaddressed thing with the player.

200 points at the 2800+ level is like 700-1000 points at the 1600 USATT level.

 

[TensorBackhand]

Hi TB,

The gap between 2800 and 300 is so huge it is difficult to describe.

Of course there could be things going on well and not well for individual players... so there could be SOME chance a 2800 wins vs a 3000, but that is highly unlikely.

A 2800 level player has to train ridiculously hard from maybe the best coaches a couple years in the best of conditions to grow their match level 50 points... unless there was some unaddressed thing with the player.

200 points at the 2800+ level is like 700-1000 points at the 1600 USATT level.

The biggest difference that I notice between 2800 and below players and 3000 top players is in the service receive.

Chinese top 5 pros have a overwhelming emphasis on pushing short. It's like they have decided that the win or loss depends on this 1 single shot.

2800 vs 2800 or 2400 vs 2400 match I notice that they are much more happy to just push long on receive.

Why is this? Do the 2800- have the ability to push short like the top pros? Or is that just the hardest skill to master?

Or is it more a tactical decision that they decide the long push is safer?

 

[Tony's Table Tennis]

The biggest difference that I notice between 2800 and below players and 3000 top players is in the service receive.

Chinese top 5 pros have a overwhelming emphasis on pushing short. It's like they have decided that the win or loss depends on this 1 single shot.

2800 vs 2800 or 2400 vs 2400 match I notice that they are much more happy to just push long on receive.

Why is this? Do the 2800- have the ability to push short like the top pros? Or is that just the hardest skill to master?

Or is it more a tactical decision that they decide the long push is safer?

I think you under estimate a 2800 spin and a 3000 spin when talking service and service receive.
table tennis is multi-dimensional.
imagine a 1000 rpm underspin, versus a 2000 rpm underspin
its a different ball game all together

 

[ThePongCommenter]

The biggest difference that I notice between 2800 and below players and 3000 top players is in the service receive.

Chinese top 5 pros have a overwhelming emphasis on pushing short. It's like they have decided that the win or loss depends on this 1 single shot.

2800 vs 2800 or 2400 vs 2400 match I notice that they are much more happy to just push long on receive.

Why is this? Do the 2800- have the ability to push short like the top pros? Or is that just the hardest skill to master?

Or is it more a tactical decision that they decide the long push is safer?

2800s generally aren't pushing long either, I wouldn't characterize that as the difference between 2800 and the best in the world. Even Harimoto pushes long relatively often to set up his counter. There isn't really one single difference you can point to, even fact a 2800 and 3000 may have similar basic skills, just the world class player puts everything together into a gameplan and executes at a level that much better than a 2800.

 

[Dr Evil]

The biggest difference that I notice between 2800 and below players and 3000 top players is in the service receive.

I think this is exactly right, except that it's not only 3000 vs 2800, it's the most important difference between higher and lower levels in general. Ovtcharov and other top pros have said as much many times. A 2600 player is remarkably precise. 2800 players are significantly more precise (noticeable even when just taking lessons from them). 3000 players are almost impossibly precise, literally impossible except for very few people.

 

[Tony's Table Tennis]

2800s generally aren't pushing long either, I wouldn't characterize that as the difference between 2800 and the best in the world. Even Harimoto pushes long relatively often to set up his counter. There isn't really one single difference you can point to, even fact a 2800 and 3000 may have similar basic skills, just the world class player puts everything together into a gameplan and executes at a level that much better than a 2800.

very correct.

3000, will push with more quality and would be ready to counter what ever comes. Some players push on purpose and counter hard.
they will cope with service better
they will execute better, they will have better placement and overall strategy.

a 1800 (or 2800) who has great spinny serves. can win off 2000 players by serves
a 2800 who has the same, cant by serves against 3000 players.
and the other way around, 3000 players serve could be so difficult to handle for 2800 players.

end of the day, stronger players have better first 3 or 5 ball contacts.

You need 2800 to play like 2900 and 3000 to have a bad day and play like 2900 for a closer context or an upset.

 

[lightspin]

In the USATT system, a 250 points advantage means you should at least beat the other player 50 times in a row before they win once. Upsets are far less common the higher the rating as the playing is more stable. Would Ma Long or FZD beat the 2800 rated players 50 times in a row if they were motivated to? I would say absolutely. So their minimum rating would be 3050. Probably higher in reality.

 

[TensorBackhand]

In the USATT system, a 250 points advantage means you should at least beat the other player 50 times in a row before they win once. Upsets are far less common the higher the rating as the playing is more stable. Would Ma Long or FZD beat the 2800 rated players 50 times in a row if they were motivated to? I would say absolutely. So their minimum rating would be 3050. Probably higher in reality.

50 times? Cmon no way. Ive seen 1800 guys beat 2000 guys on occasion

 

[lightspin]

Cmon no way? WAY BRO!

If you upset someone around 250 points higher than you, you get 50 points. If they beat you they get 1 point. They have to beat you 50 times in a row to get back those 50 points. So if everyone's level stays stable that means they can lose once for every 50 times they win.

At the lower levels, people's ratings are very unstable. So upsetting someone is quite common. A 2000 player losing to an 1800 player is not unheard of. A 2100 player beating a 2350 player is a very rare occurrence. A 2300 player should in no way shape or form have any chance at all against a 2550 player. The higher the rating, the more stable it is and fewer upsets will happen.

 

[ThePongCommenter]

50 times? Cmon no way. Ive seen 1800 guys beat 2000 guys on occasion

What lightspin is saying is 100% correct. He literally said things happen on occasion, but very rarely. And the difference between 1800 and 2000 is not even comparable to the difference between 2400 and 2600, or 2600 and 2800, or 2800 and 3000.

 

[JJ Ng]

I think one side is arguing about 1800 beating 2000 in casual club friendly matches while the other side is arguing about 1800 beating 2000 in real USATT sanctioned tournaments.

Most people don't put a lot of emphasis on 1800 beating 2000 in casual club friendly environment because there is a lot of familiarities between the players and, well, it happens.

Playing at a sanctioned tournament with all the pressure and preparation ahead of time is the best indicator of your playing level. In addition, ratings don't mean much unless you play in lots of tournaments and you show an ability to maintain your ratings.

 

[TensorBackhand]

I think one side is arguing about 1800 beating 2000 in casual club friendly matches while the other side is arguing about 1800 beating 2000 in real USATT sanctioned tournaments.

Most people don't put a lot of emphasis on 1800 beating 2000 in casual club friendly environment because there is a lot of familiarities between the players and, well, it happens.

Playing at a sanctioned tournament with all the pressure and preparation ahead of time is the best indicator of your playing level. In addition, ratings don't mean much unless you play in lots of tournaments and you show an ability to maintain your ratings.

That's not my point. 50 matches in a row before a loss implies a 2% probability.

Mathematically, i dont think 2% is correct.

There is an actual scientific answer based on the elo system.

 

[ThePongCommenter]

That's not my point. 50 matches in a row before a loss implies a 2% probability.

Mathematically, i dont think 2% is correct.

There is an actual scientific answer based on the elo system.

As JJ Ng said, if you look at tournament results, that is probably pretty close to accurate. If you look at casual club matches where heavy favorites often use those matches to practice a weakens or are otherwise not trying their hardest, it might be higher than 2% but even then still probably not by much.

 

[TensorBackhand]

As JJ Ng said, if you look at tournament results, that is probably pretty close to accurate. If you look at casual club matches where heavy favorites often use those matches to practice a weakens or are otherwise not trying their hardest, it might be higher than 2% but even then still probably not by much.

Well we have historical USATT rated matches. What does the data say?

Just from my experience of watching matches, I really don't believe its anywhere close to 2%. Maybe 10-15% is my guess