Caronavirus & Tokyo 2020

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says Spin and more spin.
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One thing I can say: if I took zinc lozenges, a bunch of vitamin C, bicarbonate soda, echinacea and goldenseal every day for a month or two, I wouldn't be able to put anything in my mouth without cringing for the rest of the year. :)
 
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Some old dude with "underlying medical conditions" just died and California say he was 'exposed" to corona. That dude lives maybe 6-10 km from me.

I jus read a news article saying the governor of Kalifornia just declared a state of emergency.

At the end of the article, a quote from the state's leading medical official says

"California now has 53 confirmed cases of coronavirus. California Department of Public Health Director Dr. Sonia Angell said the risk to the public is low."

State of emergency declared and risk is low. Hmmm.

A few stats California to date in 2020...

2020 est California death toll of corona: 1
2020 est California death toll of flu: 700+
2020 est California death toll of drunk drivers: 175+
2020 est California death toll of Sepsis: 4000+
2020 est California death toll of opioids: thousands and thousands
 
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Saw an interesting video clip on FB on how Texas deal with suspected sneezes of corona...

<iframe src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/video.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fjason.r.lozano.7%2Fvideos%2F2953981614667870%2F&show_text=0&width=391" width="391" height="476" style="border:none;overflow:hidden" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowTransparency="true" allowFullScreen="true"></iframe>
 
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A few stats California to date in 2020...

2020 est California death toll of corona: 1
2020 est California death toll of flu: 700+
2020 est California death toll of drunk drivers: 175+
2020 est California death toll of Sepsis: 4000+
2020 est California death toll of opioids: thousands and thousands

Yes, thats what I was talking about many times.
 
Back in the thread I asumed that most probably this coroba virus has been out there for a much longer time.
Recently it was found that two types of Covid-19 are circulating around right now - L and S, and before that the virus have mutated 150 times. 30% of the recent cases are of type S, which is weaker and usually passes with no symptoms at all, and 70% are of type L, which is much stronger.
The virus will mutate for sure, but still it is unknown in which direction.
 
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says Fair Play first
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НУ, ЗДРАВСТВУЙ, ЭТО Я ...

Поскольку обоюдное пожимание рук есть ритуал вредный и нездоровый во многих странах придумали безопасные и гигиеничные приветственные жесты.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-saying-hello-during-the-coronavirus-outbreak
я тоже могу предложить, энергичный удар кулаком по своему локтевому сгибу очень красивый жест и мне в кайф.
 
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It spreads really fast in several european countries. In Germany close to 400 cases up to now, more than 100 new cases in the last 24 hours. The good thing at the moment nobody died from it so far.
 
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A few stats California to date in 2020...

2020 est California death toll of corona: 1
2020 est California death toll of flu: 700+
2020 est California death toll of drunk drivers: 175+
2020 est California death toll of Sepsis: 4000+
2020 est California death toll of opioids: thousands and thousands

You can compare anything with anything, that doesn't make it a useful comparison. It's just an emotional/political response. Not useful in the grand scheme of things.

For example - drunk driving, as far as I know, isn't a communicable virus. Declaring a state of emergency about drunk driving wouldn't make much sense. Which isn't to say that these other issues aren't worth putting more effort into, and more should be done about these as well. But if you want to actually do something about corona at this moment in time, you have to change people's behaviour now to contain and delay the spread. Fighting against drunk driving, or other things on the list you've plucked out of the air, requires a different approach. One could say the same about gun violence, food poverty, lightning strikes, income disparity and almost any other issue of modern society you care to mention. What this navel-gazing doesn't do is actually make an impact on the issue at hand - a virus, more deadly than most, spreading quickly.
 
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Yes, thats what I was talking about many times.

This is still a superficial comparison, and you need much more data to make anything useful about it or else it becomes a misleading over-simplification. Which is why listening to experts and evaluating their advice on the evidence they present is the less risky option, in comparison with basic number crunching of laypeople on TT forums.

Let's say 700 people have died so far in 2020 in Cali of the flu. How many people were infected? How long has the flu season been going on for? What is the death rate, incubation period, infection vector, demographic variation?

Once you know these things (and many more factors), you can compare to the same data for corona and make some almost-sensible decisions about advice to give to the public, and perhaps go further and postpone events, declare emergencies, and so on.

If you don't know these things, then just counting the number of deaths means very little when people in positions of responsibility have to make their decisions. They have to project forward and judge how bad things could get, not say "1 death so far vs 700 for flu, so we don't need to do X". The current evidence suggests that treating corona in the same way as flu will result in many more deaths. It's possible to reduce these additional fatalities by taking some steps now to contain and delay the spread. Nothing massive - reinforce basic hygiene advice, contain people's movement in known hotspots, avoid large congregations of people in high risk areas, and so on.

The best modelling we have available now shows corona to have the potential to be much worse than seasonal flu. Comparing it to flu stats in an effort to downplay the risks is just irresponsible. It's possible to influence the public's behaviour in a say which doesn't incite panic, if done properly.
 
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Andy Smith as usual is absolutely correct. Here's another thing.

In the US a lot of people don't have health insurance. For those people, a serious case of pneumonia requiring hospitalization ruins them economically. How many people get that sick? A very significant percentage. In Wuhan it was almost 20%. Will it be that bad elsewhere? Maybe. I'm not talking about people who die here. Keep in mind, we dont have much built up immunity to this virus.
 
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Andy Smith as usual is absolutely correct. Here's another thing.

In the US a lot of people don't have health insurance. For those people, a serious case of pneumonia requiring hospitalization ruins them economically. How many people get that sick? A very significant percentage. In Wuhan it was almost 20%. Will it be that bad elsewhere? Maybe. I'm not talking about people who die here. Keep in mind, we dont have much built up immunity to this virus.

We all have bias - it's unavoidable - and Baal has hit some of mine here. I'm very focused on the mortality aspect because I'm a high risk case myself. And I forget how lucky I am to live in a country with socialised health care, so I don't have to worry anywhere near as much as you guys over in the USA about some aspects. But the impact of illness on those who do go on to recover is probably enormous too.
 
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Our profit based health care system also maintains very little excess capacity and that has been shrinking rapidly as hospitals and health systems consolidate. Empty beds and excess staff are very bad for profit margins.

This is something we accept without thinking or even knowing about it. After all, everything runs best when run like a business, right?

So if a demand increase of 10% hits our health system that has < 5% excess capacity, we are screwed. If the increase is greater than 10% we are really screwed.
 
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НУ, ЗДРАВСТВУЙ, ЭТО Я ...

Поскольку обоюдное пожимание рук есть ритуал вредный и нездоровый во многих странах придумали безопасные и гигиеничные приветственные жесты.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-saying-hello-during-the-coronavirus-outbreak
я тоже могу предложить, энергичный удар кулаком по своему локтевому сгибу очень красивый жест и мне в кайф.

А может быть самый настоящий приветственный жест это жест Телушкина - постучать пальцем по шее.
И удачным является в присуствии Корвида.
 
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The stats I presented have zero political purpose or end state except to make people aware there are many more deadly threats to our lives that merit more attention and concern

I presented them to show that there are proven threats to our live both virus and non virus that are dozens to hundreds of times more of a present threat to our lives when we e I live.

The seversl threats I provided numbers for are threats that have been killing Americans and Californians for years and decades at that level. Some improved some (Drunk driving) some got worse (drugs, Sepsis).

I make the arguement that these things deserve the focus and attention that a state of emergency puts a spotlight on as they kill so many...

Of course, I talk like a sarcastic lad, yet a little sarcasm may cause people to be aware holistically some more.

I live literally RIGHT NEXT to where the latest fatality occurred. This gent went to the BEST MEDICAL FACILITY in my area. I am not gunna freak out, but will pay good attention to the basic preventative and maintenance measures Baal and others champion.

I cannot take off the next two months off work and stay inside my place of residence. I will have my best odds of getting through this by using common sense as we have been discussing.



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As for stats of flu in USA, the official CDC stats for the current flu season (1 Oct 2019 to 22 Feb 2020) in USA are...

Understand that CDC must use some educated guessing as not every case is reported and not every death certificate accurately records cause of death...

Flu illness... 32,000,000 to 45,000,000

Medical Visits due to flu. . 14,000 000 to 21,000,000

Hospital visits due to flu... 310,000 to 560,000

Flu deaths 18,000 to 46,000

Https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

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The stats I presented have zero political purpose or end state except to make people aware there are many more deadly threats to our lives that merit more attention and concern

I presented them to show that there are proven threats to our live both virus and non virus that are dozens to hundreds of times more of a present threat to our lives when we e I live.

The seversl threats I provided numbers for are threats that have been killing Americans and Californians for years and decades at that level. Some improved some (Drunk driving) some got worse (drugs, Sepsis).

I make the arguement that these things deserve the focus and attention that a state of emergency puts a spotlight on as they kill so many...

Of course, I talk like a sarcastic lad, yet a little sarcasm may cause people to be aware holistically some more.

I live literally RIGHT NEXT to where the latest fatality occurred. This gent went to the BEST MEDICAL FACILITY in my area. I am not gunna freak out, but will pay good attention to the basic preventative and maintenance measures Baal and others champion.

I cannot take off the next two months off work and stay inside my place of residence. I will have my best odds of getting through this by using common sense as we have been discussing.



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I understand your desire to put the problem in a certain context but I think you are underestimating the need to assess and prepare for new threats in their specific context . If you are a causal thinker, as opposed to a statistical one, you will know that the reason why something happens matters and influences the probabilities. And as others have pointed out, pneumonia causes many problems other than death. Mortality outcomes are just for perspective.

Someone was telling me that 80% of the people who contract the disease heal without any treatment. I told him sure but such statistics are worse than those for the common cold or flu. That is another perspective.
 
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As Baal notes about concern for medical FACILITY capacity...

In my opinion it absolutely WOULD be a net benefit to USA to maintain reserve capacity to handle contingencies. We have this already, but not at the levels Baal would advocate... and I would agree that there would be several good reasons for it.

Of course, to maintain that level of capacity would cost a LOT of money that would need to be congressionally appropriated.

We could make an arguement that this could be entirely funded by a reduction of Department of Defense budget. There are EASILY billions and billions expended that have not significantly contributed to our national defense, but for some reason or another, the Warfighter (Pentagon) initiates funding requests.

Many nations have military departments USA deems very threatening that are funded with only a fraction of our DoD budget.

Getting the headshed to agree to give less money to the top ten defense contractors and more money to other domestic concerns to provide better value is tough.

Still, being current or ahead of technology provides a decisive advantage that has been a cornerstone of national defense strategy.

Yet, some programs, like the F35, that to date, have expended 8000 usd per USA citizen, but have not contributed to our national defense, are much better use of those funds.

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The stats I presented have zero political purpose or end state except to make people aware there are many more deadly threats to our lives that merit more attention and concern

I presented them to show that there are proven threats to our live both virus and non virus that are dozens to hundreds of times more of a present threat to our lives when we e I live.

The seversl threats I provided numbers for are threats that have been killing Americans and Californians for years and decades at that level. Some improved some (Drunk driving) some got worse (drugs, Sepsis).

I make the arguement that these things deserve the focus and attention that a state of emergency puts a spotlight on as they kill so many...

Of course, I talk like a sarcastic lad, yet a little sarcasm may cause people to be aware holistically some more.

I live literally RIGHT NEXT to where the latest fatality occurred. This gent went to the BEST MEDICAL FACILITY in my area. I am not gunna freak out, but will pay good attention to the basic preventative and maintenance measures Baal and others champion.

I cannot take off the next two months off work and stay inside my place of residence. I will have my best odds of getting through this by using common sense as we have been discussing.

Sent from my SM-N970U using Tapatalk

I understand your points, but they aren't new. This kind of moral/situational relativism has always been around. You can always say to the police - yes, you caught me jaywalking, but what about the shoplifter over there? And then the shoplifter can say - what about the owner of this store who fiddles his taxes, and so on Eventually, nothing ever gets done, because there is always something "worse", and worse is sometimes highly subjective based on the person who decides what "bad" is.

But each situation is often not comparable to the other in a direct way. Also, the idea of declaring an emergency only works if the state of emergency is not the norm. There are always problems, they aren't always directly comparable against each other in a meaningful way, and the same responses (and severity of those responses) won't have the same impact across the board. There is a reason why the response to corona is being done in this way, because getting the public to change their habits can potentially save a lot of lives right now, in this narrow window of opportunity. The messaging has to be clear, and widespread - it's the best way we have of tackling this particular threat. Sure, the media then play into this and there is some feeding from the public's fear. But saying "why don't we do the same for these other things over here" does nothing other than distract attention from the thing we're trying to manage right now. The easy answer is that the things over there are totally different scenarios, and what's currently happening with the corona response wouldn't be suitable responses anyway.

The time for the relativistic comparison is probably after the fact. Let's see how many people we can save first, then say "what about the other things", and then we can try to compare apples with apples. I've seen people here in the UK take positions similar to yours - why are we devoting so much time and attention to this when so many people in africa are dying from hunger? The answer is that devoting the attention to this problem in this way will save lives, and is relatively simple - just bang on about hygiene, and self isolation, and hope the concept sticks enough to slow the spread of the virus. Bang - potentially 1000s of lives saved. If we did the same with african hunger - would it have the same impact? "You may die" is a stronger message than "strangers over there may die". They're just not comparable in a simple way.
 
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