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    #141
    This study was from 1999. For me it doesn’t look trustworthy.

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  3. Takkyu_wa_inochi is offline
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    #143
    Quote Originally Posted by langel
    The Seasonal Flu virus kills 600 000 people worldwide every year. And somewhow the world is good with that and takes it as normal. Tell somebody that their is a Flu arround and you'll get "argh, ok, no problem."
    But give it a strange new name and its the panic that would kill the world, not the virus, the virus would kill a few.

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/flu-bi...dlines/5701932
    Stupid article. if globally several 100,000s die of coronavirus its a non-major event. People talk so much about it because there are fears of a scenario where this kills 100,000,000s .

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    #144
    It is good that Australia likes my suggest rule even if Baal does not. I am sure he didn't like my rule because I thought of it first. Oh well. This is like TDS. Facts don't matter, only the source.

    I agree with what takkyu_wa_inochi has been saying. This includes his statement about the deaths/(deaths+recovered) ratio. This ratio seems to be hanging in there at about 10% depending on where you get your numbers.

    If I survive this I will be p!$$ed. Not only is it a threat to my health but it is also a threat to my supply chain. This will hurt business. The stock market took a big drop today. That hurts everyone with 401Ks unless you have all your 401K money in cash like I do. This is called a "black swan" event. I have been preparing for a while.

    The WHO has been proven to be a bunch of idiots controlled by the CCP. They have not taken this virus outbreak seriously. The CDC hasn't been much better.

    I said before, never under estimate the incompetence of governments and bureaucrats. People from Iran have infected other countries in the middle east.

    I don't even believe our own government and news sources. MSM is fake news.
    It is hard to tell who is telling the truth. Trust no one.
    https://www.ccn.com/the-white-house-...ony-as-chinas/

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    #145
    One of the best French virologist announced today that an existing molecule (chloroquine) has been tested by Chinese doctors and seems to be very effective.

    Don't know if its true or not, if there's enough medicine available for everyone before the stuff spreads everywhere... But that it is to say the situation is very dynamic and can change positively or negatively very quickly.

    But IMHO the worst case scenarios are very likely and even if they are not so likely we should definitely prepare for those scenarios because we don't have a 2nd chance when they happen
    Last edited by Takkyu_wa_inochi; 02-26-2020 at 09:18 AM.

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    #146
    At the risk of repeating myself: panic kills. Adding to that: so do conspiracy theories and sweeping incompetence claims.

    Without taking away anything from the gravity of the situation: keeping a cool head remains important.

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    #147
    Quote Originally Posted by yoass
    At the risk of repeating myself: panic kills. Adding to that: so do conspiracy theories and sweeping incompetence claims.

    Without taking away anything from the gravity of the situation: keeping a cool head remains important.
    panic kills but lack of action and indecision kills even more. it could even make the whole of us an extinct race

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    #148
    Quote Originally Posted by Takkyu_wa_inochi
    One of the best French virologist announced today that an existing molecule (chloroquine) has been tested by Chinese doctors and seems to be very effective.

    Don't know if its true or not, if there's enough medicine available for everyone before the stuff spreads everywhere... But that it is to say the situation is very dynamic and can change positively or negatively very quickly.

    But IMHO the worst case scenarios are very likely and even if they are not so likely we should definitely prepare for those scenarios because we don't have a 2nd chance when they happen
    Yeah, I heard somewhere that choloroquine/plaquenil may be effective.

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    Here, in Russia, all the National Badge umpires are now instructed to penalize players for smearing hands onto the table surface.
    Safety first, indeed.

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    Last edited by igorponger; 02-26-2020 at 12:35 PM.

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    #150
    Name:  88082526_3047823741923924_7465049375476023296_o.jpg
Views: 144
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  11. zeio is offline
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    #151
    This PDF is maintained by the HK government and gets updated multiple times daily.

    https://www.chp.gov.hk/files/pdf/sta...fection_en.pdf





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    Last edited by zeio; 02-26-2020 at 02:01 PM.
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    #152
    Quote Originally Posted by brokenball
    This is called a "black swan" event.
    This is not actually a black swan. The possibility of a global pandemic is a known risk. It has happened before many times, and gets talked about every time a new communicable disease pops up.

    Corona virus is just an event. Events happen every day. It may be a big event, but that doesn't make it a black swan. A black swan would be an event that everyone knows is not possible, or that was never even imagined, prior to it happening. These are quite rare.

    Side note: Black Swan is not a great book. Fooled by Randomness is a great book.

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    #153
    Good thing about chloroquine is it's cheap and easy to make and no longer patent protected. Some of the other drugs that might also work are more expensive. There are encouraging observations in small trials so far with at least three drugs. The key with viruses that cause acute respiratory distress syndrome it to start the drugs early

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    Last edited by Baal; 02-26-2020 at 03:00 PM.

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    #154
    Yup. Earlier the intervention, the higher the percentages of success for sure. Recovery is easier and faster when you start out with less oxidative damage to respiratory system.

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    #155
    Quote Originally Posted by Brs
    This is not actually a black swan.
    A "Black Swan Event" is an UN-anticipated event. The term "Black Swan" is used in my contexts but I was referring to the financial context. The markets are dropping and will drop more. The markets didn't anticipate this.

    My company needs to put lots of profit share money into our employees 401K accounts. Do we do it now or do we wait until the market goes lower so our employees can buy even lower. I am betting that the market will go even lower. It makes a big difference to our employees.

    Meanwhile, the WHO has lost confidence. It is easy to see they don't want to p!$$ off China.
    This is a good source of news about the virus. The video also makes a comment about the Olympics.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsnvfALlFX8

  16. zeio is offline
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    #156
    The situation is not as bad in China now. Except for Hubei, the numbers have slowed down in other provinces the past few days. The pundits are confident to get it under control by April.

    https://www.cgtn.com/special/Battlin...w-so-far-.html
    11:49, 27-Feb-2020

    China will contain the coronavirus epidemic by the end of April, the head of China's COVID-19 expert team, Zhong Nanshan, said in a press conference held in Guangzhou City on Thursday.

    Zhong added that the first coronavirus case was confirmed in China, but the source of the virus might not have come from China, as many other countries are also reporting cases.

    Zhong's team previously predicted the peak of the epidemic to arrive in mid to late February. Zhong said that he's confident in the prevention and control measures China has taken and stands by the predictions made by his team.

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    #157

    Caronavirus & Tokyo 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Takkyu_wa_inochi
    panic kills but lack of action and indecision kills even more. it could even make the whole of us an extinct race
    Perhaps true, but probably more so of the ongoing climate catastrophe (6th mass extinction event, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_extinction) than of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic.

    And I really don’t think it wise to equate staying out of panic mode (which is: to act with deliberation, rationally - hopefully) with passivity.

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    Last edited by yoass; 02-27-2020 at 06:02 PM.

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    #158
    https://hk.appledaily.com/china/2020...HTE73BJD7VF2I/
    【武漢肺炎】鍾南山:疫情不一定發源在中國 4月底基本受控

    國家衞健委高級別專家組組長鍾南山,今早在廣州舉行記者會指,之前預測的內地疫情高峰,應該在2月中至2月底,目前新增個案宗數已經回落,更接近外國權威的預測指中國對疫情的基本控制要在5月底,但他認為,國家強力干預,加上春節後可能的回流高峯,因此做好控制下,力爭疫情會在4月底基本控制住。鍾南山說,疫情雖然首先出現在中國,但源頭不一定在中國,又說新增病例已經少於國外,南韓、伊朗及意大利的病例增加得非常快,認為中國的一些做法,可能啟發到他們。

    中國疾控中心地位太低

    鍾南山讚揚廣州醫科大學在國家防控疫情所起的作用,但慨嘆中國疾控中心的地位太低,重要性沒得到重視。他稱,疾控中心只是衞健委領導下的技術部門,而在國外,疾控中心能夠直通中央,甚至直接向社會公佈。他表示,從早期情況看,已經有人傳人、醫務人員感染現象,但是疾控中心只能上報,沒有向社會公佈疫情的權利。他建議,疾控中心要有一定的行政權。

    核酸檢測復陽暫未能下定論

    近日出現不少新冠肺炎患者出院後核酸檢測出現復陽,鍾南山認為目前不能下絕對的定論。他指出,一般來說,病毒的感染規律都一樣,只要身體內出現IgG抗體,且增高了很多,病人不會再受病毒感染。至於腸道、糞便內還有些殘餘病毒,是病人有自己的規律。他認為,現在的要害不是會否再次感染,而是會不會傳染給別人,這是需要重點觀察的。

    新冠肺炎令氣道產生非常黏的黏液

    他又提到新冠肺炎和沙士(SARS)有區別,除了肺纖維化等共同的特點外,這個病有突出特點:小氣道內非常黏的黏液非常多,阻礙了氣道的通暢。「這個我們還沒有解決,我們正在想辦法解決。」他指出,氣道不通暢,容易導致繼發性感染。武漢危重病人病亡率接近60%。專家正想辦法在解決缺氧問題,一些新辦法在武漢嘗試後,呼吸困難有所改善。

    80%傳染病從動物來

    鍾南山認為,接近80%的傳染病都是從動物來的,特別是南方吃野生動物,接觸很多,動物帶的病毒就會傳染給人,「吃野生動物的陋習,原來是沒吃的,現在何必呢?」

    新冠病毒疫情不一定發源在中國

    鍾南山表示,再過一個階段,中國有可能變成疫情輸入地,所以需要加強國際之間合作,聯防聯控,及時交流掌握到的疫情發展,以及研發有效的治療方法,這樣相信就不會再擴大。他說:「對疫情的預測,我們首先考慮中國,沒考慮國外,現在國外出現一些情況,疫情首先出現在中國,不一定是發源在中國。之前有報道稱華南海鮮市場也許是超級傳播者,但不一定是傳染源!」

    復工前需要做好防疫準備

    對於現在出現復工回流高峯,鍾南山認為,之前預測模型是春運回流之後又出現一個高峯,現在是2月27日,而專家團隊預測高峯還沒有出現。他指,因為上下火車都要檢查,病毒自然傳播規律被打斷,所以復工是要復工,但要在嚴格的處理安排下才能推行。

    他以富士康為例,幾萬人在3,000平方米的地方復工,採取的做法是工人要雙檢測,一個是核酸檢測,另外也做IgM檢測。另外,所有的工廠水龍頭、坑渠都要非常通暢,現在沒有任何證據證明病毒經消化道傳播,所以還是要做好呼吸道的防護。
    央視
    [Wuhan Pneumonia] Zhong Nanshan: Epidemic not necessarily originates in China and basically under control at the end of April

    Zhong Nanshan, the leader of the high-level expert group of the National Health and Medical Commission, held a press conference in Guangzhou this morning and pointed out that the peak of the outbreak in Mainland China previously predicted should be in mid-February to the end of February. At present, the number of new cases has fallen, closer to the forecast as estimated by foreign authorities that China's control of the epidemic will be at the end of May, but he expressed that, given the strong intervention and the possible peak of the return trip after the Spring Festival, and under good measures, the country strives to control the epidemic by the end of April. Zhong Nanshan said that although the epidemic first appeared in China, its source may not necessarily be in China. HE also said that the number of new cases has been less than foreign countries. The number of cases in South Korea, Iran, and Italy has increased very quickly, and some Chinese measures could inspire them.

    Status of China CDC is too low

    Zhong Nanshan praised the role played by Guangzhou Medical University in the national epidemic prevention and control, but lamented that the status of China CDC was too low and its importance was not taken seriously. He said that the CDC is only a technical department under the leadership of the Health and Health Commission. In foreign countries, the CDC can report directly to the central government and even straight to the public. He said that from the early situation, there have been reports of infection by people and medical personnel, but the CDC can only report it and has no right to announce the epidemic to the public. He suggested that the CDC should have certain administrative powers.

    Inconclusive on nucleic acid test going positive again

    Recently, many recovered patients have been tested positive again after being discharged from hospitals. Zhong Nanshan expressed that a conclusion cannot be reached at present. He pointed out that, in general, the pattern of the viral infection is the same. As long as IgG antibodies are present in the body and that they have increased a lot, patients will no longer be infected by the virus. As for some residual viruses in the intestines and feces, patients have their own patterns. He believes that the key now is not whether they will be re-infected, but whether it will be transmitted to others. This needs to be closely observed.

    COVID-19 causes very viscous mucus in the airways

    He also mentioned that there is a difference between COVID-19 and SARS. In addition to common features such as pulmonary fibrosis, the disease has outstanding features: there is a lot of very viscous mucus in the small airways, which obstructs airway patency. "We haven't solved this yet, we are coming up with solutions." He pointed out that if the airway is obstructed, it'd be easy to cause secondary infection. The fatality rate of critically ill patients in Wuhan is close to 60%. Experts are trying to solve the problem of hypoxia. After trying some new methods in Wuhan, the dyspnea has improved.

    80% of infectious diseases come from animals

    Zhong Nanshan believes that nearly 80% of infectious diseases come from animals. Especially in the south, where wild animals are consumed, there is a lot of contact, and the virus carried by animals will be transmitted to humans. "The bad habits of consuming wild animals were originally not practiced, so why now?"

    COVID-19 does not necessarily originate in China

    Zhong Nanshan said that, in another stage, China may become an epidemic import destination. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen international cooperation, joint prevention and control, timely communication of the development of the epidemic situation, and the development of effective treatment methods, and the situation will likely stop expanding. He said: "For the forecast of the epidemic, we first consider China, not foreign countries. Now there are some situations abroad. The epidemic appeared first in China, but not necessarily originated in China. Previous reports indicated the seafood market in South China may be a super-spreader, but not necessarily the source of infection! "

    Prepare for epidemic prevention before returning to work

    Regarding the current spike as people resume work, Zhong Nanshan believes that the forecast model previously predicted another spike after the return from Spring Festival. Now it is February 27, and the spike predicted by the expert team has not yet appeared. He pointed out that because the train must be checked when boarding on and off, the pattern of natural transmission of the virus has been interrupted, resumption of work should go ahead, but it must be implemented under strict arrangements.

    He took Foxconn as an example, where tens of thousands of people resumed work in a 3,000 square meter area. The approach adopted was that workers needed to perform double tests, one being nucleic acid test, and the other being IgM testing. In addition, all factory faucets and pits must not be obstructed. There is no evidence that the virus is transmitted through the digestive tract, so it is still best to protect the respiratory tract.
    CCTV

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    #159
    Quote Originally Posted by zeio
    The situation is not as bad in China now. Except for Hubei, the numbers have slowed down in other provinces the past few days. The pundits are confident to get it under control by April.
    That will be good but I don't believe it.
    Do you really believe it?
    Why is China needing 14000 extra nurses?
    China is even asking for foreign volunteer nurses.
    China has a lot to answer for.
    Some of the countries that aren't as 'controlled' will have a very tough time dealing with covid-19.
    If this spreads to sub Saharan Africa the virus will spread like a wild fire in the wind.
    Why is it that only the bats in Wuhan have this virus? Maybe it isn't the bats.

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    #160
    Just the day after Trump said the US has it under control, a new case with no clear route of infection popped up and your man changed his tone.

    Trump: Huawei poses a grave threat to the US national security. Boom, Crypto AG, where the CIA and BND had been spying over rigged equipment sold to over 120 countries, of course except China and Russia, since WWII until 2018.

    I believe the US did this to sab0tage China just as much as China cultivated this in the lab in an attempt to wipe humanity off this planet. /s
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