Herd immunity? I wish all of you in the UK the best of luck.
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/eur...-coronavirus-herd-immunity-plan-deadly-gamble
“The ultimate aim of herd immunity is to stop disease spread and protect the most vulnerable in society,” the British Society of Immunologists said in a statement.
“However, this strategy only works to reduce serious disease if, when building that immunity, vulnerable individuals are protected from becoming ill, for example through social distancing. If not, the consequences could be severe.”
Radio talk show with expert
Yuen Kwok Yung last Sunday:
https://www.facebook.com/881903com/videos/vb.8723358875/1491007187720390/?type=2&theater
@36:59
Remember, if we can delay the entire pandemic until summer, there will be several benefits
First, we'll know so much more about the virus
Second, some of our protective equipment will probably have arrived in Hong Kong
Third, when summer comes, we know the virus in that environment
The period it can survive is a lot shorter
So even if you catch it, the amount of virus you get will be lower, and the condition will be milder
Also in the summer, the body immune response...the inflammation is usually less severe
Not the case in winter
That's why most elderly people die in winter
Not just because of the seasonal flu
but also because the response in winter is really different from that of summer
So that's why we try our best to do everything now, including a lot of tests
To keep the pandemic in Hong Kong under control, until summer comes
We'll be better off then
I'm not saying the virus will disappear in summer, no, it'll stick around
But the pandemic usually tapers off in the summer
So only then do we get a natural infection, and get a natural immunity
That'd be better than if it happened during the winter
Our healthcare system will not be paralyzed because of it
So I think our own approach in Hong Kong
Compared to some countries where they take a gamble
To take the risk, continuously, not taking any action...
Within the next 8 weeks, pray that the public will become immune, naturally
This is a big gamble
As it could paralyze the healthcare system
And many elderly people will die within a short period of time
@38:40
This is the approach put forward by British Prime Minister Johnson
Telling people to do home isolation
See how it goes
Or make consultation over the phone
As for testing, that's not feasible for the time being
Alas, this is exactly the measure taken by the UK
In the last week, we found out a few confirmed patients who've been to London
But right now, the government says for those from Europe, 20 countries of the Schengen Area, and even Hokkaido of Japan, South Korea, etc
Forced quarantine upon arrival, whether home isolation or quarantine centers
However, it does not include the UK, and also the US
Your opinion, professor?
I think it’s necessary to respond to the situation. All of them have to go through home isolation
Because they(UK and US) aren't taking any action
You don’t know the actual number either
So when you reach a certain point, a certain time, when more and more imported cases are from the UK and the US, you've got to consider it
But if they don’t do anything, the number of infections will be like what we call a "rocket-style ascent"
Which will happen within the next 4-8 weeks
We can't just sit around and do nothing
There must be some measures to reduce the impact on Hong Kong
@54:27
As we can see, the leaders in Europe and the US don't wear masks
Those who do even get discriminated
For Hong Kong, I've consulted Professor Leung last time, and that we might have to continue until August
What's your opinion?
I believe everyone must understand that there's a cultural difference
Foreigners feel that wearing a mask is a sign that you are ill or the weak
But for us Chinese, that's not the case
We think you're sick, so you wear a mask, or that you wear as a precaution, or that it's the norm for everyone to wear one
So we can't change this cultural difference, and not change it at will
But we also understand that Hong Kong is different from other places
We are the most densely populated place in the world
Our pandemic could spiral out of control
It could spread very rapidly in a short time
And we're in the middle of winter
On top of that, our homes and workplaces are also very cramped
So if we didn't use the masks to increase the social distance
We'd essentially be creating a disaster for ourselves
Therefore, how they read the situation and how they deal with it are totally different from us
We think some folks in foreign countries are pretending to be experts here
Have they gone through SARS, honestly?
No, they haven't
Do they know about coronavirus?
They're in fact clueless
Yet, they tell you you have to listen to them and not others
I remember the bird flu outbreak in '97
The experts from abroad...we thought everything they said had to be right
But in fact, they had never encountered the bird flu
How could they know?
So I think we have to think through it ourselves
What're the circumstances in Hong Kong?
We make the best decision for ourselves based on our circumstances
@56:18
What do you think of this outbreak in Wuhan?
From what you've seen, how has the mainland done so far?
And what can we learn from them?
I think, after the outbreak in the mainland, it's very clear they've contained it very well
They're able to deal with it from the top down, in a focused manner, and it shows that they are successful
So what can Hong Kong learn from them?
The most important thing I think is IT
They make use of IT way better than Hong Kong
We're very backward, so to speak
But Hong Kong must also pay attention to one thing, that is, it must strike a balance between the so-called human rights and privacy
But say, you stay put and go about it the same way you did for SARS 17 years ago
This is a very backward approach, not how it should be done
This time, it seems that even the police MIIDSS(Major Incident Investigation and Disaster Support System, AKA supercomputer), that tracker...that supercomputer...It seems it hasn't even been put to use...I don’t even know why
(- Yes, they've started) They have? My bad
They hadn't yet the morning before...Hopefully they have now
So I think this is one aspect
But at the same time, it indicates that
For mainland, there's a lot of room for improvement in the wildlife market, the hygiene...
If not for these, if these problems were not there to begin with, then it probably wouldn't have led to where we are today
