Caronavirus & Tokyo 2020

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I disagree too about Der Echte's somewhat casual dismissal of this threat. In the US it is very early stages, we don't know where it is headed, and it is clear we have been caught unprepared so it could be bad. I emphasize again that up to 20% may need to be hospitalized. And too many of those people in the US will be ruined financially as a result.
 
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@Baal
we know its not possible. Those 20% won't be hospitalized. They don't have enough money. There aren't enough hospitals, doctors, nurses, there isn't enough medical equipment and medicine.

They will be left dying at home without any treatment and contaminating others, or in "quarantine facilities" which will be basically dying camps.

So we really must do all we can to avoid the virus from spreading so we never reach such cataclysmic situation.
 
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There aren't enough hospitals, doctors, nurses, there isn't enough medical equipment and medicine.

They will be left dying at home without any treatment and contaminating others, or in "quarantine facilities" which will be basically dying camps.

Call me a cynic, but this scenario would be just the logical next step in the steady stream of voter suppression tactics that lies at the base of the current US minority regime.

It speaks worlds that the person supposedly in charge after all organisations that could have dealt with major incidents like this, the veep, is a stout believer in the optionality of scientific fact. Let's get our hopes & prayers out, then…

We need more than this, but alas, http://scripting.com/urgent/2020/03/05.html.
 
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https://twitter.com/PAHOemergencies/status/1235935957570007042/photo/1

GLOOMY ASSUMPTION BY WHO
20:17 Under the current сonditions we have to assume that
20:18 the virus will continue to have the capacity
20:21 to spread and it's a false hope to say
20:24 the plague will just disappear in the summertime
20:25 same way as influenza viruses would do.
20:29 So, we can now make that gloomy assumption and there is no evidence
20:32 that the virus going to expire by the summertime . If it happens it would be a blessed godsend.
20:36 So we need to fight the virus now and not live in delusion
20:38 that the virus may disappear on its own.
 
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It is almost impossible to help things like this from spreading. It could be one of these infected people entered the US before people really knew this was a problem, and that's all it takes.

The problem you are talking is that you can infect someone while the virus is in incubation period and you don't know that you have it (cause when you are ill, you try to isolate yourself, or the institutions will). This could be solved (or could have been..) by forcing everyone to wear masks in public (as it is a custom in Asia). The mask won't protect you from inhaling droplets with the virus (respirators are for that), but they will stop you from coughing the droplets to others during the period you have it but don't know you do
 
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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51787238
Coronavirus: Northern Italy to 'quarantine 16 million people'

still a small flu ????

Today's very worrying news from Japan
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20200308/k10012319561000.html?utm_int=news_contents_news-main_003

a 20yo who got infected is in critical state after the virus got hold into his brain and got a meningitis. He had no pre-existing condition
its the first such case I am hearing of (apart possibly in China), on the top of that its happening on a young person
 
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We have the first 4 covid cases.
Here every suspicious case is tested twice in two different labs. The positive are tested again.
The bad alarm is that the tests, produced in Spain, show negative while the others show positive.
Wrong test results can be very dangerous, especially if in some countries people are tested only once.
Looking at the situation, the epidemic is just beginning.
 
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The WHO is corrupt. Now the rest of the world is paying the price.

I am not in any position to judge that. I don't have facts at my disposal about WHO, at least not from sources that I can trust. I wouldn't surprise me.

But while you are all in a lather about the "globalists" keep a few other things in mind, which are based on facts that we have at hand. In the US authorities wasted a couple of months doing very little to prepare for this when it was obvious that this was going to spread. Even now, testing in the US is done less than almost everywhere else in the developed world (because the CDC insisted they should do all the testing using a kit with only 70% sensitivity). The scientists who actually know what they are talking about have been muzzled because the administration wants you to think they have things under control. The kinds of pandemic early warning public health efforts that had been put in place after SARS and MERS were mostly dismantled two years ago. (Trump apparently couldn't understand why you would want to do something to help other countries with that, failing to recognize that these things can spread, as we see now, so helping others is actually helping yourself, and boots on the ground where these things often start is the best way to get a leg up on preparations in your own country). The guy in charge of the CDC, a political appointee, chosen because of a history of documented "Christian" homophobia in the context of HIV, is a clinical virologist but he has never been previously in charge of any large public health agency, and he has a history of PERSONALLY being at best very careless with his reporting of scientific data (or worse). And on and on. People even now can enter the country from Italy without being screened for a fever or symptoms! How do I know this? People I know did it and told me! They are self-quarantining now. Even now there a bunch of people on a cruise ship off the coast of California, and nobody seems to have a clue what to do with them.

Oh, and Mike Pence is the guy in charge. A guy who doesn't believe in evolution. When someone like Anthony Fauci was available (or lots of other people who actually know things about this). Problem is Dr. Fauci would tell things like they are. That would be unacceptable to the White House who see this is simply a political problem they can blame on Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton.

None of that has anything to do with the WHO.

This is going to get worse before it gets better.

OK, some more info. Probably the best data in existence on this thing now comes from Korea because they have a lot of cases and have tested THOUSANDS and THOUSANDS of people (which is what we should be doing in the US but aren't). This provides the single best estimate of the case fatality rate in a country with modern medical infrastructure, which there seems to be 0.6%. By comparison, this is ~ 6-fold higher than last year's influenza strain. However, the number of people who get seriously ill is scary high.

This is going to require some of the same measures here that we see in other places at some point to keep people from congregating in groups.

For me, this means lots of solitary road cycling and no table tennis, no gym. The university where I am teaching is making plans for how to deliver all of our course content online in case we have to cancel classes. I am betting that will happen, just like other places.
 
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I am not in any position to judge that. I don't have facts at my disposal about WHO, at least not from sources that I can trust. I wouldn't surprise me.
The WHO was advising against travel restrictions for too long. The WHO kowtowed to the CCP in down playing the severity of the problem. Only at the end of February did this change.

In the US authorities wasted a couple of months doing very little to prepare for this when it was obvious that this was going to spread.
When was it obvious? The Chinese didn't even acknowledge person to person infection until January. The Chinese soon locked down Wuhan but it was probably too late even then.

Even now, testing in the US is done less than almost everywhere else in the developed world (because the CDC insisted they should do all the testing using a kit with only 70% sensitivity). The scientists who actually know what they are talking about have been muzzled because the administration wants you to think they have things under control. The kinds of pandemic early warning public health efforts that had been put in place after SARS and MERS were mostly dismantled two years ago. (Trump apparently couldn't understand why you would want to do something to help other countries with that, failing to recognize that these things can spread, as we see now, so helping others is actually helping yourself, and boots on the ground where these things often start is the best way to get a leg up on preparations in your own country). The guy in charge of the CDC, a political appointee, chosen because of a history of documented "Christian" homophobia in the context of HIV, is a clinical virologist but he has never been previously in charge of any large public health agency, and he has a history of PERSONALLY being at best very careless with his reporting of scientific data (or worse).
Have I said anything good about governments, politicians and bureaucrats? They are stupid, incompetent or corrupt.

And on and on. People even now can enter the country from Italy without being screened for a fever or symptoms! How do I know this? People I know did it and told me! They are self-quarantining now. Even now there a bunch of people on a cruise ship off the coast of California, and nobody seems to have a clue what to do with them.
Yes, I know this because our office manager was born in Italy and talks to her parents every other day in Aviano IT, north of Venice.

This is going to get worse before it gets better.
Yes.

OK, some more info. Probably the best data in existence on this thing now comes from Korea because they have a lot of cases and have tested THOUSANDS and THOUSANDS of people (which is what we should be doing in the US but aren't).
Agreed but two months ago no one believed there was a serious problem because of the down play by the WHO.

This provides the single best estimate of the case fatality rate in a country with modern medical infrastructure, which there seems to be 0.6%. By comparison, this is ~ 6-fold higher than last year's influenza strain. However, the number of people who get seriously ill is scary high.
Where did you get 0.6%?
Italy has 366 deaths. How many have recovered? I see no number for that. You have to remember that the infected are going to eventual be divided into the death or recovered group.

For me, this means lots of solitary road cycling and no table tennis, no gym. The university where I am teaching is making plans for how to deliver all of our course content online in case we have to cancel classes. I am betting that will happen, just like other places.
I have my own table with lots of space and balls but if things get bad I have my truck camper and can go out into the sticks and boon dock away from people.

The Costcos and Walmarts around here are short or out of a lot of things.
 
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Some years ago I read an article by a japanese doctor who claimed that viruses are able to travel with the clouds in the sky and foll whereever they like. :rolleyes:
But now I can't find it coz any kind of "virus" googling returns only Corona and nothing else.
It seems Google's got some panic virus too.
 
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I was planning to visit Japan and Korea with my family this year. But since we have little kids we decided not to go. We live in Poland and here actually more and more flights to Asia and Italy are being cancelled constantly. I'm afraid that 2020 Olympic Games may gather a really small audience.
 
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https://www.niikei.jp/31566/

a new TT player found with the virus in Niigata. He wasn't part of the other group of infected TT players whom i was speaking of the other day, but he played a tournament with one of these players...
 
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I have had a fever for the past 3 days and I am not sure what to make of it. But other than my difficulty digesting food, it hasn't been terrible. But I have had to sleep a lot. Since I am. Ot showing any major respiratory symptoms I consider it a stomach flu. But I did have to miss work on Friday. Who really knows...
 
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you get 0.6%?
Italy has 366 deaths. How many have recovered? I see no number for that. You have to remember that the infected are going to eventual be divided into the death or recovered group.

Data from Korea like I said. Because of more extensive testing there they have better estimate of number of people infected. That is where 0.6% comes from. It's still an estimate but it seems like the best estimate.

It was obvious in January that a response was needed no matter what the WHO might have said. It is a novel coronavirus but it is still a coronavirus. But not having competent people making key decisions prevents good decisions from being made. That includes eliminating US pandemic response teams (2017-2018 decisions).

Langel, there is no evidence that viruses fall from the sky. What leads to spread is congregations of people, which iscwhybitvoften happens around high population densities.
 
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