Favorite to win 2024 Olympics?

[Tony's Table Tennis]

Why can't they match it/ beat it?
Ma Lin and WH did not play any more Olympics because they had juniors that could beat them and the opps consistently, that's my point.

On one hand, you're attesting to the CNT being weak, and on the other hand you're saying this weak CNT will most likely be lax with their winning incentives/ strategies. There's no concordance.

Humans adapt or they get left in the dirt, if the CNT doesn't find new players that'll shake off the top guys, they'll play as long as possible like the Europeans. The Chinese's gene isn't some special gene doomed to die out in their early 30s. What's in paying them a few more million yuan( and that's if your assertion about ML is true) cos all the interviews I've seen, even just after winning the Olympics, he reiterated that he wanted to keep playing, but of course people can always say "He was following the CTTA script bruh". Talk is cheap.

if you ever compared how they trained CNT players you would never had compared them to Europeans. So, I'm assuming you don't know.

Ma Long has been training and competing at the highest level for almost 30 years at 40 hours a week.
He is really burnt out.

They don't play as long as possible, as it is just humanely impossible.
You will know it if you trained even 30 hours a week.

 

[Shine]

if you ever compared how they trained CNT players you would never had compared them to Europeans. So, I'm assuming you don't know.

Ma Long has been training and competing at the highest level for almost 30 years at 40 hours a week.
He is really burnt out.

They don't play as long as possible, as it is just humanely impossible.
You will know it if you trained even 30 hours a week.

I know that's how they've train, most fans have heard tales of all their antics and tactics. What I'm saying is the team will adapt when it needs it. It hasn't needed to adapt much, so it has stuck to the old paradigm. I think in recent years with more hours devoted to strength training, physiotherapy and introduction of sport science, things are liberalizing a little bit, before there was punishments for losing, now it's not as clear.

They'll eventually moderate the training routine of their top players, manage their conditions as best as they can to reduce injuries and to keep them at the top. It's only natural. We can see that approach in the way they've managed Ma Long in the past 5 years.

 

[NextLevel]

Why can't they match it/ beat it?
Ma Lin and WH did not play any more Olympics because they had juniors that could beat them and the opps consistently, that's my point.

On one hand, you're attesting to the CNT being weak, and on the other hand you're saying this weak CNT will most likely be lax with their winning incentives/ strategies. There's no concordance.

Humans adapt or they get left in the dirt, if the CNT doesn't find new players that'll shake off the top guys, they'll play as long as possible like the Europeans. The Chinese's gene isn't some special gene doomed to die out in their early 30s. What's in paying them a few more million yuan( and that's if your assertion about ML is true) cos all the interviews I've seen, even just after winning the Olympics, he reiterated that he wanted to keep playing, but of course people can always say "He was following the CTTA script bruh". Talk is cheap.

Nah, it isnt just about maintaining the best players, it is also about keeping the upcoming players in other countries from gaining confidence. And Ma Long is a special player but even he had a period of injury to his physical form that threated his career. Had the Olympics not been postponed by Covid, Ma Long not playing the Olympics was a realistic possibility. These things are not mathematics. Wang Hao felt off a cliff in his 30s, so did Ma Lin.

 

[Tony's Table Tennis]

Nah, it isnt just about maintaining the best players, it is also about keeping the upcoming players in other countries from gaining confidence. And Ma Long is a special player but even he had a period of injury to his physical form that threated his career. Had the Olympics not been postponed by Covid, Ma Long not playing the Olympics was a realistic possibility. These things are not mathematics. Wang Hao felt off a cliff in his 30s, so did Ma Lin.

Ma Long is the most complete player from China and is really unmatchable.
Gotto watch this WCQ game (front part I was talking about something else)
This would have never happened to Ma Long at any age.

 

[Shine]

Nah, it isnt just about maintaining the best players, it is also about keeping the upcoming players in other countries from gaining confidence. And Ma Long is a special player but even he had a period of injury to his physical form that threated his career. Had the Olympics not been postponed by Covid, Ma Long not playing the Olympics was a realistic possibility. These things are not mathematics. Wang Hao felt off a cliff in his 30s, so did Ma Lin.

Confidence is related to skill level and success, fear is naturally derived from other's abilities, not something that the mandarins in Beijing are scheming about, they've got better things to worry about. China simply kept winning easily because of the gap in skill and organizational acumen. Other countries have taken their time to develop their skills and acumen, it has translated into results, close calls and success, and so the confidence has risen.

Everyone falls off in their 30s, it's natural.People that play decently well in their 30s often take breaks from the scene. Ma Lin and Wang Hao in their "fell off the cliff" years would still beat most of the top players in their years.

 

[Shine]

Ma Long just won the worlds in 2019, was runner up at the World Cup in 2020 and won the World tour Grand Finals in that same 2020; Doesn't look like there was a possibility of him missing Tokyo.

 

[NextLevel]

Ma Long just won the worlds in 2019, was runner up at the World Cup in 2020 and won the World tour Grand Finals in that same 2020; Doesn't look like there was a possibility of him missing Tokyo.

He lost the World Cup and multiple matches in 2020. His health was a red flag. It is easy to forget how much the delay helped him.

 

[Shine]

He lost the World Cup and multiple matches in 2020. His health was a red flag. It is easy to forget how much the delay helped him.

"Multiple match losses" could mean 5 in a year- not really a cause for alarm, most of them may have been to FZD for all we know, that's right! he actually lost that world cup to FZD. Nervetheless he won 2 out of 3 majors at that time, what matters more?? I think his health was under good control actually. I don't even think he was playing a lot of tournaments to be losing a lot of matches.

 

[NextLevel]

"Multiple match losses" could mean 5 in a year- not really a cause for alarm, most of them may have been to FZD for all we know, that's right! he actually lost that world cup to FZD. Nervetheless he won 2 out of 3 majors at that time, what matters more?? I think his health was under good control actually. I don't even think he was playing a lot of tournaments to be losing a lot of matches.

I was mixing up 2019 and 2020, so yes, he was arguably ready by 2020, though the 2020 World Cup was well after the Olympics on the original calendar. Whether he would have beaten Fan in 2020 is neither here nor there, but my main point is that his recovery from knee surgery needed time and the injury and recovery led to a lot of uncertainty. Whether it was under good control depends on whether he would have been a clear favorite against Harimoto or Lin Yun Ju in July 2020 and I would argue that his forehand issues at that time were such that he wasn't.

 

[mnt]

Although I've already said that WCQ looks like the most favorite one at the moment, but why not Ma Long?

ML is still top 3, if not top 2 players in the world. Except FZD and WCQ, no one in the CNT is at his level currently. LSD is still too young, lack of experience. LGY, if in great form and with a cold head, can cause some troubles, but he usually choked at the most important moments. And LJK still looks like a noob against ML last week. Even FZD still lost to ML last month. The only exception is WCQ.

Outside of CNT, LJY used to be a thread to ML in the past, but not any more. He couldn't take a single game from ML in their latest match. Harimoto is having a bad year, not sure how he can come back from this. 'nough said about the European players, none of them can touch ML. Felix shows a lot of potential but still too young, lack of mental strength. If he continues to improve, his chance in 2028 is very bright, but not 2024.

That said if one of WCQ or FZD had bad luck and got injured just before the Olympic, ML will surely take a spot to play singles at Paris. If so he'd be my favorite.

 

[Tony's Table Tennis]

Although I've already said that WCQ looks like the most favorite one at the moment, but why not Ma Long?

ML is still top 3, if not top 2 players in the world. Except FZD and WCQ, no one in the CNT is at his level currently. LSD is still too young, lack of experience. LGY, if in great form and with a cold head, can cause some troubles, but he usually choked at the most important moments. And LJK still looks like a noob against ML last week. Even FZD still lost to ML last month. The only exception is WCQ.

Outside of CNT, LJY used to be a thread to ML in the past, but not any more. He couldn't take a single game from ML in their latest match. Harimoto is having a bad year, not sure how he can come back from this. 'nough said about the European players, none of them can touch ML. Felix shows a lot of potential but still too young, lack of mental strength. If he continues to improve, his chance in 2028 is very bright, but not 2024.

That said if one of WCQ or FZD had bad luck and got injured just before the Olympic, ML will surely take a spot to play singles at Paris. If so he'd be my favorite.

For Ma Long to play, he needs to make sure he is top 3 in the world, and no other non Chinese player will surpass him in WR
CNT will not risk not having 2 top seeds, they won't want no1 and no3 seed in the same half.

HT had a bad run, so he didn't really gain good points.
But Ma Long will expire over 2800 points before seeding.
So he will need to get some wins, and hope current wr4, 5 do not surpass him
It is mathematical difficult to surpass Ma Long, but it is still possible if Ma Long don't gain points and the others do.

 

[Shine]

For Ma Long to play, he needs to make sure he is top 3 in the world, and no other non Chinese player will surpass him in WR
CNT will not risk not having 2 top seeds, they won't want no1 and no3 seed in the same half.

HT had a bad run, so he didn't really gain good points.
But Ma Long will expire over 2800 points before seeding.
So he will need to get some wins, and hope current wr4, 5 do not surpass him
It is mathematical difficult to surpass Ma Long, but it is still possible.

The Olympics point must expire before the next Olympics start??

 

[Tony's Table Tennis]

The Olympics point must expire before the next Olympics start??

Not sure if its my English or yours, but i'm not certain what you are asking.
But I'm guessing....
Ma Long's Olympic point from Tokyo expired 6 months ago already lol

 

[superbackhand]

WHAT ABOUT DAN, the founder of TTD?

 

[Shine]

Not sure if its my English or yours, but i'm not certain what you are asking.
But I'm guessing....
Ma Long's Olympic point from Tokyo expired 6 months ago already lol

Wow interesting, so what's the 2800 points due to expire? I assume the bulk of Ma Long's points are his Olympic points. And he's not been playing at the big tourneys for China for almost 2 years now. Is it the WTTC?

 

[Tony's Table Tennis]

Wow interesting, so what's the 2800 points due to expire? I assume the bulk of Ma Long's points are his Olympic points. And he's not been playing at the big tourneys for China for almost 2 years now. Is it the WTTC?

WTTC points is only valid for 12 months, so yes, WTTC points will also expire by then.
There are other tournaments he played end of last year with the points expiring soon.
and the tournaments from early in the year that is going to be expired early next year.

Correction - he stands to loose 3600 points, thus leaving him with only 555 points should he gain 0 more from now on.

Its all mathematics now.
If Ma Longs is outside top 2 seeds, it is very high risk for CNT to take him as a singles player.
With Wang Chuqin now WR1 and FZD WR2, and with plenty of recent points, they won't expire until after the OG

But the question is, WCQ does have a terrible 0-19 on him forever. If that comes again between now and final entry... what would CNT do?

See here

 

[Shine]

WTTC points is only valid for 12 months, so yes, WTTC points will also expire by then.
There are other tournaments he played end of last year with the points expiring soon.
and the tournaments from early in the year that is going to be expired early next year.

Correction - he stands to loose 3600 points, thus leaving him with only 555 points should he gain 0 more from now on.

Its all mathematics now.
If Ma Longs is outside top 2 seeds, it is very high risk for CNT to take him as a singles player.
With Wang Chuqin now WR1 and FZD WR2, and with plenty of recent points, they won't expire until after the OG

But the question is, WCQ does have a terrible 0-19 on him forever. If that comes again between now and final entry... what would CNT do?

See here

The guy has literally reached like 3 finals this year, was 3rd place in the WTTC, and won the Asian championships. Those should expire in a year. Are you trying to say the finals and Asian championships/ WTTC are all worth 555 points?
This sounds like sensationalism to me, without even looking up his world ranking points earnings. If his 3600 points are about to expire, How are those that have 2500 points and have only been in one final the entire year gonna survive? Remember Ma Long is ahead of 4th place by 1400 points at least. As long as Ma Long is not inactive till July, it's unlikely his place will be shaken.

 

[Shine]

If Wang Chuqin is terrible because of a 0-19 bagel and yet he's WR1, that's an eyesore for TT and for the rest of the players.

 

[Tony's Table Tennis]

The guy has literally reached like 3 finals this year, was 3rd place in the WTTC, and won the Asian championships. Those should expire in a year. Are you trying to say the finals and Asian championships/ WTTC are all worth 555 points?
This sounds like sensationalism to me, without even looking up his world ranking points earnings. If his 3600 points are about to expire, How are those that have 2500 points and have only been in one final the entire year gonna survive? Remember Ma Long is ahead of 4th place by 1400 points at least. As long as Ma Long is not inactive till July, it's unlikely his place will be shaken.

definitely language issue between you or is it me? or is it my typing or your reading?

asian champs is worth 500 points
then the other is a R16 finish in TWTT Star Contender Ljubljana worth 55 points
the rest is going to be zero.

Why you taking WTTC when I already told you it will be zero by the seeding?
"WTTC points will also expire by then."

Like I said, Ma Long needs to be very busy for the next 8 months to even be able to get a shot.
Is results up until now, is history. Who ever goes, needs to give CNT top 2 seeds.

 

[Tony's Table Tennis]

If Wang Chuqin is terrible because of a 0-19 bagel and yet he's WR1, that's an eyesore for TT and for the rest of the players.

I can feel it is your reading or English comprehension
Who said Wang Chuqin is terrible?
read again!