SARS-CoV-2; CoVID-19; Coronavirus; Updates and Information

[UpSideDownCarl]

This thread is for information on the spread of CoVID-19. Please do your best to keep this A-Political and about information on the science of the coronavirus pandemic and things that can mitigate spread. Ideally the information is forward looking and not about casting blame or hashing out mistakes different people feel have been made?

Thank you.

 

[Free bird]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...virus-genome-bad-news-wrapped-in-protein.html

A very impressive piece of work on explaining coronavirus genetic code to general public. Can’t believe it - it manages to present all those gene sequences without boring readers to death. That non-structural protein 14 proofreads RNA replication and is what makes coronaviruse not as easily mutated as flu viruses.

 

[Simas]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...virus-genome-bad-news-wrapped-in-protein.html

A very impressive piece of work on explaining coronavirus genetic code to general public. Can’t believe it - it manages to present all those gene sequences without boring readers to death. That non-structural protein 14 proofreads RNA replication and is what makes coronaviruse not as easily mutated as flu viruses.

Nice stuff. Someone should make a video with all this!

 

[Baal]

This just came out in Science, one of the world's two most elite scientific journals. Authors are from several countries (London, NYC, Beijing, Davis CA, Hong King). It shows the biggest challenge controlling this virus. Basically the vast majority of spread is from people with few or no symptoms. it’s hard to get people who feel fine to stop engaging with other people, who also feel fine.
--‐--------‐‐
Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2)
Ruiyun Li1,*, Sen Pei2,*,†, Bin Chen3,*, Yimeng Song4, Tao Zhang5, Wan Yang6, Jeffrey Shaman2,†

Science 16 Mar 2020:
eabb3221
DOI: 10.1126/science.abb3221


Abstract
Estimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Here we use observations of reported infection within China, in conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with SARS-CoV2, including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness. We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. Per person, the transmission rate of undocumented infections was 55% of documented infections ([46%–62%]), yet, due to their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the infection source for 79% of documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV2 and indicate containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.

 

[igorponger]

HAVE PATIENCE A LOT, MEN.
this is much like a plague and came to the world to stay, for one year at least. People have incured a delusion of "happy end" being unaware of the real nature of the virusal invasion. 2 billions humans will be affected within a year.

 

[Baal]

Sadly, what Igor wrote is indeed possible.

 

[Vlad Celler]

Ivermectin.....this is serious ?

 

[Simas]

HAVE PATIENCE A LOT, MEN.
this is much like a plague and came to the world to stay, for one year at least. People have incured a delusion of "happy end" being unaware of the real nature of the virusal invasion. 2 billions humans will be affected within a year.

I wouldn't be that pessimistic in a longer run. In a year or two it's high chance we will have a drug for ill and a vaccine for prevention and it will become more like a seasonal flu I suppose...

 

[Baal]

Ivermectin.....this is serious ?

Yes. It markedly reduced virus load in cultured human cells (in a dish) and is very effective in that experimental model (at first glance looks better than chloroquine, although the experiments are not easy to compare). So far there is no data in humans or animals in any coronavirus model. It blocks movement of several molecules into the cell nucleus which many viruses need to replicate. It works against many different families of viruses, including a Thai Dengue virus, but in that case it had no effect to reduce the virus in mice. Reports of its anti-viral activity go back several years.

So add ivermectin to the growing list of "promising candidates" but there is zero evidence as yet that it will actually work in people. Hopefully it works because it is cheap and plentiful. Experience shows (including my own!) that lots of drugs work great in a dish and fail when you try to use them in animals. Often it is a safety issue, at least at the doses needed.

 

[Vlad Celler]

Yes. It markedly reduced virus load in cultured human cells (in a dish) and is very effective in that experimental model (at first glance looks better than chloroquine, although the experiments are not easy to compare). So far there is no data in humans or animals in any coronavirus model. It blocks movement of several molecules into the cell nucleus which many viruses need to replicate. It works against many different families of viruses, including a Thai Dengue virus, but in that case it had no effect to reduce the virus in mice. Reports of its anti-viral activity go back several years.

So add ivermectin to the growing list of "promising candidates" but there is zero evidence as yet that it will actually work in people. Hopefully it works because it is cheap and plentiful. Experience shows (including my own!) that lots of drugs work great in a dish and fail when you try to use them in animals. Often it is a safety issue, at least at the doses needed.

If I'm not mistaken, you are a professional doctor ....
Tell me ... Is it possible to take this drug preventively to reduce the severity of the disease in case of a possible infection?
Or is it too risky due to possible side effects?

 

[Baal]

If I'm not mistaken, you are a professional doctor ....
Tell me ... Is it possible to take this drug preventively to reduce the severity of the disease in case of a possible infection?
Or is it too risky due to possible side effects?

I'm not an MD. I am a PhD (in pharmacology) and I do medical research. I can't really advise you on that. Bear in mind that it is completely unproven.

 

[Vlad Celler]

Thank you ... Yes, of course, I understand ....
Doctors, of course, simply do not have the right to apply this to already sick people until appropriate checks are carried out and the effectiveness of treatment with this agent is confirmed ...
It was just interesting ... Did the demand for this medicine increase in the USA? Or is it not sold over the counter?
Sick people can take a chance and take it themselves ... they have nothing to lose ....

 

[ejcool]

https://www.researchgate.net/public...t_antiviral_activity_against_SARS_coronavirus
How about this one ?
Be confident , we will be fine .

 

[ejcool]

Someone already got a patent
https://patents.google.com/patent/EP1660078A1/en18

 

[Baal]

Indomethacin is an NSAID. It's a problem when we dont even have proper case reports to go on, but see below. Until its resolved I wouldn't use it.
-------------

March 17, 2020 -- A warning from French health officials suggests that grave adverse events have been reported with the use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), such as ibuprofen, in people with COVID-19, and they recommend treatment instead with acetaminophen.

But many doctors, particularly outside of France, reacted on social networks saying there isn’t enough evidence for such a recommendation.

The Spanish Ministry of Health stated on Sunday that there is no evidence that ibuprofen (or other NSAIDs) makes COVID-19 infection worse.

British doctors broadly agreed, although they say acetaminophen is a better choice for infection in general.

One U.S. expert says evidence of risks to people with COVID-19 beyond those already well-known with infections in general and NSAIDs hasn’t been established.

On March 14, the French government reported "serious adverse events" linked to NSAIDs in people with COVID-19. Soon after, French Health Minister Olivier Véran tweeted that "taking anti-inflammatory drugs (ibuprofen, cortisone...) could be an aggravating factor of the [COVID-19] infection."

"If you have a fever, take paracetamol," Veran tweeted. "If you are already on anti-inflammatory drugs or in doubt, ask your doctor for advice."
-----‐-------------------

Of course I can give several reasons why someone taking an NSAID might do poorly with a Covid-19 infection that have nothing to do with the NSAID and more to do with their underlying condition. I can also propose rational mechanisms about how they could make things worse. That's the problem with a lot of what is reported out there. We need properly designed studies to actually learn things.

 

[Free bird]

Yes. It markedly reduced virus load in cultured human cells (in a dish) and is very effective in that experimental model (at first glance looks better than chloroquine, although the experiments are not easy to compare). So far there is no data in humans or animals in any coronavirus model. It blocks movement of several molecules into the cell nucleus which many viruses need to replicate. It works against many different families of viruses, including a Thai Dengue virus, but in that case it had no effect to reduce the virus in mice. Reports of its anti-viral activity go back several years.

So add ivermectin to the growing list of "promising candidates" but there is zero evidence as yet that it will actually work in people. Hopefully it works because it is cheap and plentiful. Experience shows (including my own!) that lots of drugs work great in a dish and fail when you try to use them in animals. Often it is a safety issue, at least at the doses needed.

Interesting. As far as I know, coronaviruses replicate themselves without getting into cell nucleus. So blocking entry into nucleus doesn’t seem to be a good reason. ivermectin is rather large molecule and highly hydrophobic. Could it be messing up with membrane?

 

[NextLevel]

Seems by the time you get one ventilator, in most cases it is too late. I find it interesting that there are no stats anywhere (probably to reduce fear), but a Channel 4 video mentioned it and a doctor from an unofficial channel gave a high %. So the focus on very ventilators is likely misguided and probably part of the reason why many states can free up capacity and give some away.

After all the noise, chloroquine and zinc sounds like the way to go. Especially zinc. But not to the point of toxicity.

 

[Baal]

Interesting. As far as I know, coronaviruses replicate themselves without getting into cell nucleus. So blocking entry into nucleus doesn’t seem to be a good reason. ivermectin is rather large molecule and highly hydrophobic. Could it be messing up with membrane?

Yes, that was my thought too, so I did a little more digging into the literature. Apparently the main effect in the case of coronavirus is that inhibition of nuclear import helps it evade human immune responses. The pathways are fairly complex but include multiple transcription factors that cant get into the nucleus.

Good search terms are coronavirus, importin A, importin B, interferon, if you're interested.

Ivermectin effects on SARS-CoV-2 in cultured cells were very large.

 

[Brs]

Isn't that what I give my dogs every month?

 

[Brs]

For heartworm