JTTA: Selection System to be Revamped for Paris 2024

[jfolsen]

Ito and Pavade, Pavade has lots and lots of practice against short pips (Jia Nan Yuan). So the disruption factor was pretty much nil.

 

[zeio]

YJN has pips on her FH and that difference was made clear as Pavade was uncomfortable with Ito's serves and shot paths until late G3.

 

[zeio]

卓球ニッポン金メダルへの絆 ～涙と笑顔と結束と 完全密着4317日～
https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Q6421f7Jd/?vd_source=9b4bee64b7435c626607968135e168b3

 

[zeio]

Bigger picture:
Unlikely for Miwa to mature much in 1 month's time ahead of Paris 2024, even with the BH tweak, but should be adequate before WT F.
As hinted by Miwa's brother before, unnecessary of him to adapt his game to that of Togami in exchange for his end goal for Paris 2024.

WTT CT Zagreb 2024
WS F
Hayata 4-0 Harimoto (8, 10, 8, 3)

MS F
Togami 1-4 A. Lebrun (-4, -6, -7, 5, -7)

WTT CT Zagreb 2024
MS SF
Harimoto 2-3 Togami (-13, -12, 8, 9, -10)

In terms of mindset, Harimoto and Hirano are practically identical now that the top seeds are out of their hands. What matters is the bigger picture as Harimoto told in an interview at WTT CS Chongqing 2024.

 

[Takkyu_wa_inochi]

卓球ニッポン金メダルへの絆 ～涙と笑顔と結束と 完全密着4317日～
https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Q6421f7Jd/

cant access it. what was it about ? who cried ?

 

[zeio]

Fixed the link. The query parameter is necessary for this video.

 

[Takkyu_wa_inochi]

still doesnt work, maybe need VPN. set to HK ? nope...

 

[zeio]

The link and video are fine, but the redirect doesn't work with this one for some reason. Could be an issue with the http header. Try to copy and paste the link manually instead.

 

[driversbeat]

After Zagreb 2024:

5. Hayata (no change)
7. Shin (no change)
8. Miwa (2185, less than 100 behind Shin's 2270)
9. Hirano (1628, still ways to go from Shin but currently 5 seed if no deductions taken into account)
10. Szocs
11. Ito
19. Kihara

 

[NextLevel]

After Zagreb 2024:

5. Hayata (no change)
7. Shin (no change)
8. Miwa (2185, less than 100 behind Shin's 2270)
9. Hirano (1628, still ways to go from Shin but currently 5 seed if no deductions taken into account)
10. Szocs
11. Ito
19. Kihara

It is weird that Shin maintains that good ranking though she has some events she will have to switch out coming in June and maybe July. But I do not see how Hirano can cover it. But Miwa will overtake Shin for sure before Olympics.

 

[FIXPOINT]

After Zagreb 2024:

5. Hayata (no change)
7. Shin (no change)
8. Miwa (2185, less than 100 behind Shin's 2270)
9. Hirano (1628, still ways to go from Shin but currently 5 seed if no deductions taken into account)
10. Szocs
11. Ito
19. Kihara

Valid ( or Remaining) Points Ranking as of July 16, Just Before the Olympics:

The seeding for the team and individual events of the Paris Olympics, which will be held from July 27 to August 10, 2024, will be determined by the world rankings announced on July 16. Therefore, based on the world rankings as of June 11, I have calculated the valid ( or remaining) points ranking as of July 16. The actual ranking will be determined by adding the results of WTT matches held by July 7 to the valid points. Thus, players with higher valid points calculated here are considered to have a more advantageous position.

 

[pongfugrasshopper]

It is weird that Shin maintains that good ranking though she has some events she will have to switch out coming in June and maybe July. But I do not see how Hirano can cover it. But Miwa will overtake Shin for sure before Olympics.

Hirano is probably going to have to win SC Ljubljana or SC Bangkok, and the JNT women are going to have to help her by playing prevent defense on SYB like what Kihara did by beating SYB in the 1st round at Zagreb. Incidentally, the one tournament that SYB is skipping, Contender Tunis, is the same one that Hirano is skipping.

 

[zeio]

4 of the 5 core JNT players (6 of the top 7) experiencing a substantial decrease in WR points a little over 1 month from Paris 2024 is the last straw that the revamped selection system has been maimed beyond recognition for the sake of fairness.

Kudos to Hirano for getting back up under this condition and Kihara for her sacrifices behind the scenes.

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/fo...-be-revamped-for-paris-2024.24977/post-461225

It's needless to say SYB is the oddball that doesn't belong to the top 10, but looking at the long list of events many KNT players have attended in 2023 and 2024, it does highlight the naivety of JTTA and DTTB, the former in particular with its selection system that has done more harm than good. Good in that the only current Olympic gold medalist but solo (can I just say selfish?) Ito will not play WS and in turn WT, but bad in that Hayata is no way close to being the top 2 seeds at Paris 2024 (let alone challenge) and Hirano wasting precious time on fending off Ito until Zennihon Takkyu 2024 that could've been used for raising her WR at WTT SCT Doha, CT Doha and SCT Goa 2024. If you ask me, the chemistry between Hayata and Harimoto in XD has also been stagnant for the past 2 or even 3 years. Things could've been better for the top players who really bring home the glory but the higher-ups were so naive to talk about fairness and let those who wouldn't ever make the cut have an input on how the selection system should be organized.

As the CNR criticized the CNT's selection system, it's just lazy governance.

 

[pongfugrasshopper]

4 of the 5 core JNT players (6 of the top 7) experiencing a substantial decrease in WR points a little over 1 month from Paris 2024 is the last straw that the revamped selection system has been maimed beyond recognition for the sake of fairness.

Kudos to Hirano for getting back up under this condition and Kihara for her sacrifices behind the scenes.

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/fo...-be-revamped-for-paris-2024.24977/post-461225

Although the selection system may need some tweaks, I'm not sure what you mean by substantial decrease in WR points. Mima Ito is probably the only one that stands out but I'm not sure that's because of the trials. Hayata is about the same. Miwa's ranking is the highest it's ever been. Hirano is back into the top 10 after years of being out of the top 10. Kihara at WR#19 is not far off her mid teens average. Nagasaki's WR reached an all time high recently.

They will easily take the #2 seed in WT at the Olympics. We knew a while back that it was a tough road for Hirano, but it was up to her to maintain her ranking throughout the trials. And she had good chances but let her game drop at the Asian Games and a number of Contender/Star Contenders last year. Hayata was able to not only maintain her form but excel during the Paris Trials period (Asian Games, World Champs, winning a number of Contenders).

 

[zeio]

Fixpoint's graph was for nothing.

https://www.ittf.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024_24_SEN_WS.html
5 Hayata, N/A
8 Harimoto, 6/25, -400+140=-260, -260/2185=-11.9%
9 Hirano, 7/2, -400+45=-355, -355/1628=-21.8%
11 Ito, 7/9, -210+70=-140, -140/1600=-8.75%
19 Kihara, 7/9, -105-70+45+20=-110, -110/1015=-10.8%
23 Nagasaki, 7/9, -140-55+20+20=-155, -155/900=-17.2%
26 Mori, 7/9, -75-50+25+4=-96, -96/839=-11.4%

Ito stands out but not sure that's because of the trials? Sponichi picked up Ito's part of TV Tokyo's latest documentary (which was mostly recaps), in which she complained about how she was totally not ready for the trials. Remember your arguments against Hirano that she should not have lost to non-CNT players? Now you're defending Ito when she's fared worse despite the seeding advantage?

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/forum/topics/world-cup-2024.33476/post-455085

Would've been nice of you to mention Ito's fate at World Cup 2024. Why the arguments against Hirano when she lost to non-CNT players but nothing for Ito now? You're just living in the past like Ito.

伊藤美誠　パリ五輪ロードへの葛藤「最初のスタートは思い出したくないくらい最悪でした」
https://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2024/06/09/kiji/20240609s00026000516000c.html
eij********
2日前
他の選手や若手選手はTリーグを大事にしながら、国際大会も頑張ってる。疲れて、調子悪いときもあるだろうに…。でも強くなっている。負けたときも相手へのリスペクトを忘れない。皆と同じで国内の試合から頑張っていかなきゃ。若手選手のほうが強かったりもするよ。
Other players and young players are doing their best in international competitions while cherishing the T.League. They may be tired and not in good shape at times... But they are getting stronger. Even when they lose, they don't forget to respect their opponents. Just like everyone else, they have to work hard in domestic matches. Young players can be stronger.

ken********
2日前
コーチ不在なのは単純な理由ではなさそうだ。今後世界ランキング1位（＝2000ポイントの大会で優勝複数必要）をめざすのなら、優秀なコーチを付けて対戦相手の分析、練習などを見てもらわないと難しいだろう。
The reason for the absence of a coach does not seem to be simple. If she aims to be WR1 (= multiple wins in 2000-point tournaments necessary), it will be difficult unless she hires a good coach to analyze her opponents and train her.

kym********
2日前
伊藤さんさあ、外部の意見って、結構的得てるよ。それを活用出来るか、否かで四年後決まっちゃうよ。早めに呪縛から放たれた方がいいで。
Ito-san, outside opinions are quite accurate. Whether you can utilize them or not will determine your future in four years. It would be better to break free from the curse as soon as possible.

wgo********
2日前
これから世界ランキング１位を目指すお方です。　
過ぎた事を語る必要はないでしょう。
She is someone who is aiming to become WR1 from now on.
There is no need to talk about the past.

ｋ********
2日前
伊藤さんには人は一人では生きていけないということを理解して欲しい。
tec********
2日前
記事を鵜呑みにしすぎです。
恐らくここにコメントしている人よりも人生経験は豊富だと思いますし、トップアスリートとして様々な教育を受けています。

その上での判断です。
記事になっていないことが多く、それらは永遠に明らかになりませんが、彼女の立場になれば納得の判断でしょう。

我々は彼女のほんの一部しか知らず、ミスリードされているかもしれません。

なにより、彼女の生き方と、我々とは何の関係も無いのです。

正に釈迦に説法だと思います。
You're taking the article too literally.
She probably has more life experience than the people commenting here, and as a top athlete she has received a wide range of education.

This is her judgment based on that.
There is a lot that was not included in the article and will never be revealed, but if you were in her position, it would make sense.

We only know a small part of her and may be misled.

Above all, her way of life has nothing to do with us.

I think this is like preaching to the choir.
ｋ********
2日前
tec********
　彼女はアスリートとしてはトップを極めた人ですが、一人の大人として成
　熟しているとは限りません。例えば、五輪の件に関する発言でもそうで
　す。強化本部から何の発表も打診もない段階で団体要員の辞退を示唆する
　ような発言、あるいは補欠は向かいなどとも言いました。普通の大人は
　そういうことを公の場では言いませんね。彼女の一連の言動を垣間見ると
　やはり幼い頃から卓球一筋でやってきたことが一般人の大人としての成長
　の妨げとなっているとも言えるのではないでしょうか。彼女がコーチを付
　けないことに関して卓球の専門的な見識からそれが妥当であるかどうかは
　私にはわかりません。ただ、彼女はコーチを付けなくなってから結果が出
　ず悪くなるばかりということは事実であり、それでも素人の他人がとやか
　く言うことではないと言われてもそれはどうなのかと思いますが。
She is a top athlete, but that doesn't mean she is mature as an adult. For example, her comments about the Olympics. She made comments that suggested she would withdraw from the team when there was no announcement or consultation from the development headquarters, and she even said that she would not be able to fill in as a reserve player. Normal adults don't say such things in public. Looking at her series of words and actions, I think it can be said that her dedication to table tennis since she was a child is hindering her growth as an adult. I don't know whether it is appropriate from a professional perspective on table tennis that she doesn't have a coach. However, it is true that since she stopped having a coach, she has not been able to get results and her performance has only gotten worse, and I wonder if it is true that it is not something that an amateur other than her should say.

vrt********
2日前
中国に目をつけられると徹底的に研究されボコボコにされ選手生命に影響出るレベルで心を折られる
これ以上無い大舞台で中国を負かした後すぐ引退で勝ち逃げした水谷選手は賢かったのかもしれない
If China sets its sights on you, you will be thoroughly studied and beaten to the extent that could affect your career as an athlete, and you will be heartbroken. Mizutani may have been wise in retiring right after beating China on the biggest stage possible.

 

[pongfugrasshopper]

Fixpoint's graph was for nothing.

https://www.ittf.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024_24_SEN_WS.html
5 Hayata, N/A
8 Harimoto, 6/25, -400+140=-260, -260/2185=-11.9%
9 Hirano, 7/2, -400+45=-355, -355/1628=-21.8%
11 Ito, 7/9, -210+70=-140, -140/1600=-8.75%
19 Kihara, 7/9, -105-70+45+20=-110, -110/1015=-10.8%
23 Nagasaki, 7/9, -140-55+20+20=-155, -155/900=-17.2%
26 Mori, 7/9, -75-50+25+4=-96, -96/839=-11.4%

Ito stands out but not sure that's because of the trials? Sponichi picked up Ito's part of TV Tokyo's latest documentary (which was mostly recaps), in which she complained about how she was totally not ready for the trials. Remember your arguments against Hirano that she should not have lost to non-CNT players? Now you're defending Ito when she's fared worse despite the seeding advantage?

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/forum/topics/world-cup-2024.33476/post-455085


伊藤美誠　パリ五輪ロードへの葛藤「最初のスタートは思い出したくないくらい最悪でした」
https://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2024/06/09/kiji/20240609s00026000516000c.html
eij********
2日前
他の選手や若手選手はTリーグを大事にしながら、国際大会も頑張ってる。疲れて、調子悪いときもあるだろうに…。でも強くなっている。負けたときも相手へのリスペクトを忘れない。皆と同じで国内の試合から頑張っていかなきゃ。若手選手のほうが強かったりもするよ。
Other players and young players are doing their best in international competitions while cherishing the T.League. They may be tired and not in good shape at times... But they are getting stronger. Even when they lose, they don't forget to respect their opponents. Just like everyone else, they have to work hard in domestic matches. Young players can be stronger.

ken********
2日前
コーチ不在なのは単純な理由ではなさそうだ。今後世界ランキング1位（＝2000ポイントの大会で優勝複数必要）をめざすのなら、優秀なコーチを付けて対戦相手の分析、練習などを見てもらわないと難しいだろう。
The reason for the absence of a coach does not seem to be simple. If she aims to be WR1 (= multiple wins in 2000-point tournaments necessary), it will be difficult unless she hires a good coach to analyze her opponents and train her.

kym********
2日前
伊藤さんさあ、外部の意見って、結構的得てるよ。それを活用出来るか、否かで四年後決まっちゃうよ。早めに呪縛から放たれた方がいいで。
Ito-san, outside opinions are quite accurate. Whether you can utilize them or not will determine your future in four years. It would be better to break free from the curse as soon as possible.

wgo********
2日前
これから世界ランキング１位を目指すお方です。　
過ぎた事を語る必要はないでしょう。
She is someone who is aiming to become WR1 from now on.
There is no need to talk about the past.

ｋ********
2日前
伊藤さんには人は一人では生きていけないということを理解して欲しい。
tec********
2日前
記事を鵜呑みにしすぎです。
恐らくここにコメントしている人よりも人生経験は豊富だと思いますし、トップアスリートとして様々な教育を受けています。

その上での判断です。
記事になっていないことが多く、それらは永遠に明らかになりませんが、彼女の立場になれば納得の判断でしょう。

我々は彼女のほんの一部しか知らず、ミスリードされているかもしれません。

なにより、彼女の生き方と、我々とは何の関係も無いのです。

正に釈迦に説法だと思います。
You're taking the article too literally.
She probably has more life experience than the people commenting here, and as a top athlete she has received a wide range of education.

This is her judgment based on that.
There is a lot that was not included in the article and will never be revealed, but if you were in her position, it would make sense.

We only know a small part of her and may be misled.

Above all, her way of life has nothing to do with us.

I think this is like preaching to the choir.
ｋ********
2日前
tec********
　彼女はアスリートとしてはトップを極めた人ですが、一人の大人として成
　熟しているとは限りません。例えば、五輪の件に関する発言でもそうで
　す。強化本部から何の発表も打診もない段階で団体要員の辞退を示唆する
　ような発言、あるいは補欠は向かいなどとも言いました。普通の大人は
　そういうことを公の場では言いませんね。彼女の一連の言動を垣間見ると
　やはり幼い頃から卓球一筋でやってきたことが一般人の大人としての成長
　の妨げとなっているとも言えるのではないでしょうか。彼女がコーチを付
　けないことに関して卓球の専門的な見識からそれが妥当であるかどうかは
　私にはわかりません。ただ、彼女はコーチを付けなくなってから結果が出
　ず悪くなるばかりということは事実であり、それでも素人の他人がとやか
　く言うことではないと言われてもそれはどうなのかと思いますが。
She is a top athlete, but that doesn't mean she is mature as an adult. For example, her comments about the Olympics. She made comments that suggested she would withdraw from the team when there was no announcement or consultation from the development headquarters, and she even said that she would not be able to fill in as a reserve player. Normal adults don't say such things in public. Looking at her series of words and actions, I think it can be said that her dedication to table tennis since she was a child is hindering her growth as an adult. I don't know whether it is appropriate from a professional perspective on table tennis that she doesn't have a coach. However, it is true that since she stopped having a coach, she has not been able to get results and her performance has only gotten worse, and I wonder if it is true that it is not something that an amateur other than her should say.

vrt********
2日前
中国に目をつけられると徹底的に研究されボコボコにされ選手生命に影響出るレベルで心を折られる
これ以上無い大舞台で中国を負かした後すぐ引退で勝ち逃げした水谷選手は賢かったのかもしれない
If China sets its sights on you, you will be thoroughly studied and beaten to the extent that could affect your career as an athlete, and you will be heartbroken. Mizutani may have been wise in retiring right after beating China on the biggest stage possible.

You're just describing the world ranking process of point expiration and substitution. Happens to all players, and they'll need to replenish their expiring points by doing well in current and future tournaments. That doesn't erase the fact that most Japanese women's rankings have actually gone up. I'm not even sure if Hirano is actually concerned that much about her ranking because why not enter Contender Tunis like her compatriots, or if she wants a direct challenge to SYB, then enter Contender Lagos which would give her even greater control of the rankings race.

As for Mima Ito, I'm actually not defending her for faring worse. I'm just saying I'm not sure if the trials have anything to do with her rankings decline. They might have ... I'm not sure. But I think rather, as she's been in the limelight for 10 or so years with tons of video to analyze, players other than the CNT are developing tactics to attack her weaknesses resulting in her moving down the rankings. It seems to be a mixed bag though with Mima. She'll lose to Pavade or JJH. On the other hand, she has recent wins against players like Hirano, Kihara, and Szocs.

 

[zeio]

Before I forget. JTTA has come up with a "Promotion Project" in preparation for a potential decrease of registered players, which has yet to recover (~55,000 less).

協会理事会でWTTでの個人ウエア着用が承認。また登録人口減少に備え、「普及対策プロジェクト」を発足予定
https://world-tt.com/blog/news/archives/185458
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/21052de344d94c3e129b59b6c520c41e7ffa5820

【卓球】日本卓球協会が登録人口減少に備え、「普及対策プロジェクト」を発足予定
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/e0d6919c775a2255c6760921463ce8dc96062483

日本卓球協会の最近の登録人口は以下の通り（協会HPより）
2022年度（2021年4月～2023年3月）303,229人
2021年度（2020年4月～2022年3月）301,984人
2020年度（2019年4月～2021年3月）262,175人
2019年度（2020年4月～2022年3月）358,124人
2018年度（2020年4月～2022年3月）358,600人

 

[KiwiPong]

Rumour has it that Hirano has been dating LYJ from Taiwan?

 

[zeio]

Just ran into this piece by Nikkei on WTTC 2024. An example usage of the term "扛住".

日本女乒離戰勝中國僅一步之遙
https://zh.cn.nikkei.com/politicsaeconomy/politicsasociety/54917-2024-02-26-10-32-36.html

日本女乒打破中國輕鬆奪冠常態，隊員説出原因
https://zh.cn.nikkei.com/politicsaeconomy/politicsasociety/54936-2024-02-27-10-57-31.html

在對陣的第8場比賽中首次打敗陳夢的早田希娜表示，獲勝的原因是把比賽拖入了「非常難受的局面」。比賽中，早田根據比賽的進展情況猜測對方的想法，偶爾會果斷放棄自己擅長的爽快拉球的打法。早田説「（自己借助）避免對方強力擊打，堅持扛住」這一可以轉變戰術的技術以及頻繁發長球等「靈光一閃」的策略把陳夢的無比精確的球打亂，以微弱優勢獲得了勝利。

 

[zeio]

You're just describing the world ranking process of point expiration and substitution. Happens to all players, and they'll need to replenish their expiring points by doing well in current and future tournaments. That doesn't erase the fact that most Japanese women's rankings have actually gone up. I'm not even sure if Hirano is actually concerned that much about her ranking because why not enter Contender Tunis like her compatriots, or if she wants a direct challenge to SYB, then enter Contender Lagos which would give her even greater control of the rankings race.

As for Mima Ito, I'm actually not defending her for faring worse. I'm just saying I'm not sure if the trials have anything to do with her rankings decline. They might have ... I'm not sure. But I think rather, as she's been in the limelight for 10 or so years with tons of video to analyze, players other than the CNT are developing tactics to attack her weaknesses resulting in her moving down the rankings. It seems to be a mixed bag though with Mima. She'll lose to Pavade or JJH. On the other hand, she has recent wins against players like Hirano, Kihara, and Szocs.

Still not getting it and still in denial.

Past selection systems used to end right before the Olympic year, with the 3rd member announced early the following year. With the revamped selection system, the time that should've been spent on training is now being used to play tournaments in a last-ditch effort to catch up and secure better seeding. How did they end up like this? Where were they again when players from other teams were busy grabbing points at WTT SCT Doha, CT Doha and SCT Goa 2024? Now they won't even have time for a proper training camp before heading for Paris. Despite being the 2nd seed after CHN, the teamwork of JPN does not even compare to that of KOR.

卓球女子が仙台で合宿開始／福原「また宮城にメダル」
https://www.shikoku-np.co.jp/sports/international/20160701000603
宮城）福原、伊藤両選手が仙台で合宿　リオへ追い込み
https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASJ74554ZJ74UTIL018.html

I shouldn't have to write it out here. Hirano and Ito's game plan (identical events) is to get as many WR points in as few tries here. There are only 4 SCTs before Paris 2024 and because of Zennihon Takkyu 2024 they've missed the two at the start of the year. However, more doesn't necessarily mean better as Hayata demonstrated she couldn't win with 100% certainty even without CNT players around. For Hirano, it's clear as day she wants to focus on replacing the two double-digit points in Ljubljana and Bangkok and that's it. Playing in Lagos and/or Tunis is meaningless if that affects her performance in Ljubljana and Bangkok.

1/2024
WTT SCT Doha
WTT SCT Goa
6
WTT SCT Ljubljana
7
WTT SCT Bangkok

Once again, Ito's current state in the domestic and international scenes has everything to do with the selection race. Recent wins over those teammates and foreign players don't mean jack when they mattered the least. The fact is she has even greater trouble keeping her WR up despite the seeding advantage, all the while having the POOREST record against CNT players and having fared worse than Hirano against non-CNT players in this cycle. As with NextLevel, stop wasting my time with your opinions that don't align with the facts.

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/fo...-be-revamped-for-paris-2024.24977/post-450783

In the more detailed interview with 47news, Ito even admits she felt the best she could do was WS bronze. As for the selection race, Ito admits her style is not suited to that kind of selection as people get used to it the more she becomes exposed. But on the other hand, she is the type that wins by getting used to other players and if she doesn't keep playing overseas, then her game becomes stagnant. It is a style that fits Japanese players but it is boring, and that is why she has not been able to move up.