Caronavirus & Tokyo 2020

[Baal]

SARS outbreak ended abruptly in May, naturally hot weather is speculated as the factor. SARS virus also has membrane as outer shell. Maybe affinities between spike proteins on the virus and receptors on host are sensitive to temperature.
Aerosol transmission is confirmed for coronavirus. Not sure if it should be qualified as airborne.

Please see the article I linked to up -thread from the Harvard scientist for more details about SARS and what actually made it go away. It is not known for sure how much was due to temperature.

Also temperature in region of host cells (type 2 pneumocytes) doesnt depends upon season or external temperature.

For now we can hope temperature helps shut this down but we cant count on it.

 

[Baal]

This came out today. It is a preprint, not yet peer reviewed. It concludes that about 12% of cases were transmitted by people not yet showing symptoms. -------------

The serial interval of COVID-19 from publicly reported confirmed cases
Zhanwei Du, Xiaoke Xu, Ye Wu, Lin Wang, Benjamin J Cowling, View ORCID ProfileLauren Ancel Meyers

Abstract
As a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) continues to emerge throughout China and threaten the globe, its transmission characteristics remain uncertain. Here, we analyze the serial intervals-the time period between the onset of symptoms in an index (infector) case and the onset of symptoms in a secondary (infectee) case-of 468 infector-infectee pairs with confirmed COVID-19 cases reported by health departments in 18 Chinese provinces between January 21, 2020, and February 8, 2020. The reported serial intervals range from -11 days to 20 days, with a mean of 3.96 days (95% confidence interval: 3.53-4.39), a standard deviation of 4.75 days (95% confidence interval: 4.46-5.07), and 12.1% of reports indicating pre-symptomatic transmission.

 

[Der_Echte]

I was planning on an April 2020 secret mission to east coast to get Next Level, Carl, and any NYC based members some action, well, we could always have that fun a few months later. Been a year plus, waiting another few months and making it bigger/better isn't gunna kill anything.

 

[Free bird]

Please see the article I linked to up -thread from the Harvard scientist for more details about SARS and what actually made it go away. It is not known for sure how much was due to temperature.

Also temperature in region of host cells (type 2 pneumocytes) doesnt depends upon season or external temperature.

For now we can hope temperature helps shut this down but we cant count on it.

when we talk about ambient temperature effect, it’s mainly about the virus spike glycoprotein, not the host receptor. It’s not that radical to think conformations of the virus S protein will change as temperature goes high, and thus affecting the affinity to the host.

 

[Baal]

when we talk about ambient temperature effect, it’s mainly about the virus spike glycoprotein, not the host receptor. It’s not that radical to think conformations of the virus S protein will change as temperature goes high, and thus affecting the affinity to the host.

It is definitely possible that high temperatures cause the S-protein to denature in virus particles that are on surfaces especially if UV light from the sun is present. But bear in mind, the virus spreads to other cells within the respiratory epithelium after it hijacks the machinery of the first type-2 pneumocytes that are infected. (Those cells then produce and secrete more virus particles which infect adjacent cells, and some are exhaled to infect other hosts). This spread is what ultimately causes widespread inflammation that causes pneumonia and ultimately brings on the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) that kills the unluckiest people who are infected. That alone implies that the S-protein is stable at body temperature at least in an aqueous environment. Of course, in air or on a surface they may not be so thermostable. Body temperature is about 98.2 degrees or 37.3 degrees depending on your preferred scale. We see that in Houston in July and August. Seattle? Boston? New York? Paris? Not so much.

Summarizing the conclusions of lots of people who study this for a living, a decline of this pandemic in the northern hemisphere as summer approaches may happen (I definitely hope so!!!) but is not guaranteed to happen. As has been emphasized repeatedly in a bunch of sources I have searched out today, it is simply not known why original SARS appeared to diminish as the summer came on. There are a lot of possible explanations and quite a few of them have nothing to do with the virus and more to do with the people it infects. And of course, all of the factors come in to some extent. It's just not clear how to weight them.

 

[Dr Evil]

Bill Gates Q and A on COVID-19.

 

[Baal]

Sobering numbers.

In France half (50%!!!) of Covid 19 patients in ICUs are age 19 to 50. This is from French government stats. The same pattern is emerging in Italy.

People who survive ARDS (the syndrome that occurs with severe Covid 19) will have pulmonary fibrosis which leads to much higher likelihood of COPD later in life.

You can no longer assume you are safe because you are young. One possibility is that the virus mutated to a more severe form.

Stay home!!!!!!!!! Its not just being altruistic to save old people. It's for everyone.

TT will come back.

 

[zeio]

If I get corona, I get corona.
That's why I got to be 93.

 

[Takkyu_wa_inochi]

Sobering numbers.

In France half (50%!!!) of Covid 19 patients in ICUs are age 19 to 50. This is from French government stats. The same pattern is emerging in Italy.

People who survive ARDS (the syndrome that occurs with severe Covid 19) will have pulmonary fibrosis which leads to much higher likelihood of COPD later in life.

You can no longer assume you are safe because you are young. One possibility is that the virus mutated to a more severe form.

Stay home!!!!!!!!! Its not just being altruistic to save old people. It's for everyone.

TT will come back.

do you have a link to that info ? thanks

 

[NextLevel]

do you have a link to that info ? thanks

https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...zations-united-states-according-new-cdc-data/

 

[NextLevel]

https://youtu.be/BIymfznD7YA

 

[NextLevel]

https://www.wired.com/story/an-old-malaria-drug-may-fight-covid-19-and-silicon-valleys-into-it/

This is a more "balanced" appraisal of chloroquine. The thing is that I have become so skeptical of modern medicine since most pharma companies try to get doctors fo push drugs under patents and avoid doing clinical trials on anything that isn't under patent (like chloroquine). But others may have specific reasons to be skeptical of chloroquine. That said it is relatively harmless drug for those not allergic to it and might help someone who is not on it for a long period.

 

[tropical]

I remember I got the nasty bug >40 years ago when I was a high school student. We were forced to go to nearby jungles to turn them into "new economical" zones. Many kids got malaria! Nasty bug indeed which caused extreme cold and fever alternately inside your body. I couldn't feel warm enough even with 5 blankets and outside temp was around 40C!
This drug (I actually took quinine, a natural form) saved me. Almost immediately the cold and fever were gone. Don't remember how many dozes I took but the malaria didn't come back almost 2 years later when I was in a refugee camp. I took it one more time and have never seen the malaria symptoms again. Not sure how it can treat Covid-19 but it is almost harmless to take (don't overdose) just in case you got the virus. Trump seems to jump on it to get the credit if it turns out it works. What an opportunist!

 

[Der_Echte]

A USA NIH article on Quercetin showing a lot of the potential taken with another flavenoid against several classes of viruses.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4808895/

 

[Der_Echte]

Interesting story tropical !

In the early days of the Iraq deployments, Solders were given bottles of Doxycycline, an anti-malaria drug and ordered to take it daily beginning a week before deployment and for the first few months.

Mosquitoes were said to be around over there in April, so no mass numbers at first protested the logic of a lot.

Getting anyone to take anything every day for any period of time as a preventative is a challenge. Some Soldiers discovered that they really didn't get along with that pill. It is damn near impossible to call a formation at a set time every day and force everyone to down it when the units are spread out from hell to breakfast. Naturally, by the end of the first month, way less than half of us were still taking it.

 

[brokenball]

The thing is that I have become so skeptical of modern medicine since most pharma companies try to get doctors fo push drugs under patents and avoid doing clinical trials on anything that isn't under patent (like chloroquine).

I know this to be fact. It cost me about $6K until I finally switched to a generic drug that worked just as well.

 

[Baal]

I remember I got the nasty bug >40 years ago when I was a high school student. We were forced to go to nearby jungles to turn them into "new economical" zones. Many kids got malaria! Nasty bug indeed which caused extreme cold and fever alternately inside your body. I couldn't feel warm enough even with 5 blankets and outside temp was around 40C!
This drug (I actually took quinine, a natural form) saved me. Almost immediately the cold and fever were gone. Don't remember how many dozes I took but the malaria didn't come back almost 2 years later when I was in a refugee camp. I took it one more time and have never seen the malaria symptoms again. Not sure how it can treat Covid-19 but it is almost harmless to take (don't overdose) just in case you got the virus. Trump seems to jump on it to get the credit if it turns out it works. What an opportunist!

It is not known for sure how it works in viral infections. One theory, in basic terms, is that the virus needs intact function of acidic granules such as lysosomes inside the cells they infect to hijack them into making more virus. Quinine and chloroquine are known to enter the acidic granules and raise their pH (i.e. neutralize the acidity) and this could allow them to slow the infection to adjacent cells. Another theory is that chloroquine promotes entry of zinc into cells, which in turn inhibits the RNA replicase the virus uses to reproduce itself inside your cells. These are not mutually exclusive.

In malaria the drugs inhibit acidic lysosomes in the parasite that causes the disease. It definitely works there, or did, but a lit of malaria strains are now resistant to it.

Korean doctors have been using it already in Covid-19. I would personally want to take it, probably along with a substantial zinc supplement. In case theory 2 is correct. Because what else have we got?

 

[Baal]

I should add that if the acidic granule theory for chloroquine is correct it suggests some other drugs that might also be effective in Covud-19. Der Echte mentioned quercetin. It actualky inhibits the enzyme (H+-ATPase) that makes those granules acidic. I think you would need a whopping big dose in vivo though because I dont think it gets into cells very well. But there are other drugs. Chloroquine is good for most people because it is surprisingly well tolerated.

 

[diavolo]

Would you recommend taking chloroquine as a preventive measure or only when you get symptoms? I assume you need a prescription from the doctor?

 

[Takkyu_wa_inochi]

in the meanwhile, the cherry blossom season has begun in Japan

There are many people outside, as if nothing... Is this country mad ?
the official numbers are low, but there are more and more reports of sick people with heavy symptoms who were refused testing.

https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20200318-00000096-jij-pol

https://www.oita-press.co.jp/1010000000/2020/03/20/JD0059074540

I think the next 2-3 weeks will be telling

maybe indeed the progression is contained (polynomial)... or because its exponential, they can't hide it anymore

I fear the government wants to prove they can deal with the virus better than China or Korea, but how can they succeed without quarantining as severely as in China ? or without testing massively like in Korea ? I think the government pride and arrogance, as well as their greed (sticking to the Olympics) is putting their people at risk.

They are even now even talking about reversing the few quarantine measures (reopening schools or some sports events..)