Honestly, Takkyu_wa_inochi has every reason to be freaked out.
Before Johnson tried to sell his proposal of herd immunity on Mar 13, folks in Japan had already contemplated the idea.
Shinohara of NLI Research Insitute published an article on Feb 28,
the day after all passengers and
2 days before the remaining crew members had disembarked from the Diamond Princess, with a total of
712 confimed cases, compared to
254 domestic cases at the time. He compared the basic reproduction numbers of various infectious diseases such as measles, chickenpox, polio, influenza, SARS, MERS etc. and came to the conclusion that herd immunity was not feasible for COVID-19.
https://www.nli-research.co.jp/report/detail/id=63806?site=nli
2020年02月28日
感染力でみる新型コロナの脅威－ワクチンができるまで「集団免疫」の予防策はとれない
保険研究部 主席研究員・ヘルスケアリサーチセンター兼任 篠原 拓也
...
総合的な感染力でみたときの新型コロナウイルスの脅威
一般に、感染症は免疫をもっている人にはかからない。そこで、日本では、さまざまな感染症に対するワクチンの予防接種が行われている。その結果、現在、ワクチンがある感染症に対しては、9割を超える人が免疫をもつようになっている。
ただし、インフルエンザの場合は、流行しているウイルスの株とワクチンの株が違うと、予防接種を受けていても感染拡大を防ぎきれないこともあるとされている。
この「免疫を持つ人が多ければ多いほど、感染症が流行しにくくなる」という考え方にもとづいた感染拡大の予防策は、「集団免疫」といわれる。感染症の拡大防止のための、重要な予防策となる。
基本再生産数で表される素の感染力でみれば、はしかやおたふくかぜのほうが断然高い。しかし、ワクチン効果を含めた総合的な感染力でみると、効果が限定的なインフルエンザや、ワクチンがないSARS、MERSの脅威が高まってくる。
そして残念ながら、いま流行している新型コロナウイルスに対しても、まだワクチンはない。今後、ワクチンを開発して臨床試験を経て実用化するまでには、相当な時間がかかる見込みとされている。
そこで、いますぐにすべき予防策として、帰宅時、食事前、トイレ後の石鹸での手洗いや、電車内での咳エチケットの励行など、一人ひとりが日常生活のなかで感染症対策を行うことが重要となる。
新型コロナウイルスは流行のピークが見えず、今後も新たな感染拡大の状況が明らかになることが予想される。2月27日、政府は、全国の小中学校、高等学校、特別支援学校について、3月2日から春休みまで臨時休校を要請した。今回の感染拡大防止の動きは、史上に例をみない展開となっている。
一般の市民として、大切なことは、メディアが報じる数値にあまり踊らされることなく、一人ひとりが、いますぐにすべき予防策を粛々ととっていくことだと思われるが、いかがだろうか。
Feb 28, 2020
On Threat of Novel Coronavirus in Terms of Infectiousness - Preventive Measure by "Herd Immunity" Cannot Be Taken until Vaccine Becomes Available
SHINOHARA Takuya - Senior Researcher, Healthcare Research Center, Insurance Research Department
...
Threat of the novel coronavirus in terms of overall infectivity
In general, infections do not affect immunized people. Therefore, vaccination against various infectious diseases is being carried out in Japan. As a result, more than 90% of people now have immunity against infectious diseases with vaccines.
However, in the case of influenza, it is said that if the strain of the prevalent virus and the strain of the vaccine are different, even if vaccinated, the spread of the infection may not be prevented.
This preventive measure against the spread of infection based on the idea that "the more people who have immunity, the less likely it is for infectious diseases to spread" is called "herd immunity." It is an important precautionary measure to prevent the spread of infectious diseases.
The measles and mumps are by far the highest in terms of the infectivity of the element expressed as the number of basic reproductions. However, in terms of overall infectivity, including vaccine efficacy, threats from influenza with limited efficacy, SARS without vaccine, and MERS are increasing.
And unfortunately, there is no vaccine yet for the new epidemic of coronavirus. It is expected that considerable time will be required for vaccines to be developed and put into practical use after clinical trials.
Therefore, as a precautionary measure that should be taken immediately, each person should take measures against infectious diseases in their daily lives, such as washing their hands with soap after returning home, before meals, after toilets, and enforcing cough etiquette on trains. It becomes important.
The epidemic peak of the new coronavirus is not visible, and it is expected that the status of new infection spread will become clear in the future. On February 27, the government requested that elementary and junior high schools, high schools, and special schools nationwide be temporarily closed from March 2 until spring break. This move to prevent the spread of infection is unprecedented in history.
As an ordinary citizen, the important thing seems to be that each person should take a precautionary measure that should be taken immediately without being distracted by the figures reported by the media.
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On Feb 23, in a piece by what appears to be a journalist, the author looked into the possible reasons for the poor handling of the then epidemic by the Abe administration.
https://note.com/nihon_koutei/n/nd722131d6f55
検査をしなければ感染者数は検査した数以上には絶対に増えない。つまり検査をしないことで公表する感染者数を減らすことが可能なのだ。
桜を見る会、黒川検事長の定年延長の問題などで、流石に安倍への逆風が強まっているし、もはや安倍の悲願とも言える改憲、改憲案の発議や国民投票はほぼ不可能という状態。そんな中、いま安倍がこれだけは是が非でもと思っているのは東京五輪の開催なのはほぼ間違いない。
ただ、新型コロナウィルスの感染者が激増すれば、当然、国内外からも東京五輪の中止という話も出てくる。改憲をする為にも四選を目指すとすれば、みんながまだお祭り気分の五輪後に解散総選挙をするしかない安倍にとってはそれは何としても避けたい筈。勿論、五輪のメインスタジアムでスピーチするような真似も安倍は大好きだろうが。
で、その為に一番てっとり早い、効果的な方法は何かと言えば、日本での感染者数を減らすこと。勿論、実際の数ではなくても、公表する感染者数でも構わない。こう考えると、安倍政権が検査をしない、検査の数を増やさない理由が判る筈だ。
また、あまり知らない人が多いが、今回の新型コロナウィルスのような感染症はそれこそ何の対策もせず、感染者をどんどん増やしてしまっても数カ月から半年ぐらいでほぼ確実に終息する。これは感染者が増えることで多くの人が免疫を持つようになる「集団免疫」という仕組みがあるからなのだが、そういう意味では本当の感染者数を調べず、感染拡大をわざわざ防がなくても大丈夫だとも言えるのだ。
...
つまり、何の対策もせずに一挙に感染者を増やせば、「集団免疫」でそれこそ早く感染は終息する可能性があるのだが、一気に感染者が増加。今の医療体制を超えた患者が医療機関に押しかけ、つまり医療を受けられない感染者、患者が巷に溢れる「医療崩壊」を引き起こすのだ。
Without testing, the number of infected people will never increase beyond the number tested. In other words, it is possible to reduce the number of infected people by not performing tests.
On issues such as the Cherry Blossom party and the extension of the retirement age of the Attorney General of Kurokawa, headwinds against Abe are indeed getting stronger and stronger, and it can be said that Abe’s wishful constitutional amendment, the constitutional amendment proposal and the national referendum are almost impossible. Under such circumstances, it's almost certain that the only thing on Abe's mind is the hosting of the Tokyo Olympics by all means.
However, if the number of people infected with the novel coronavirus increases dramatically, it will naturally be said that the Tokyo Olympics will be canceled from Japan and overseas. If Abe is aiming for a fourth term in order to reform the constitution, then Abe, who has no choice but to hold a general election after the Olympics, should definitely avoid that. Of course, it's Abe's favorite imitation, like giving a speech in the Olympic stadium.
And the fastest and most effective way to do that is to reduce the number of infected people in Japan. Of course, the number of infected people may be publicly announced, though not necessarily the actual number. Given this, you can see why the Abe administration does not conduct tests and does not increase the number of tests.
In addition, although many people do not know, there is no countermeasure for infections like the novel coronavirus this time. Even if the number of infected people increases rapidly, it will almost certainly end in a few months to half a year. This is because there is a mechanism called “herd immunity” in which many people become immunized as the number of infected people increases. In this sense, it does not matter if you do not investigate the actual number of infected people and do not intentionally prevent the infection from spreading.
...
In other words, if the number of infected people is increased at once without taking any measures, "herd immunity" may end the infection as soon as possible, but the number of infected people increases at a stretch. Patients beyond the current healthcare capacity rush to medical institutions, that is, infected people and patients who cannot receive medical treatment can cause a "healthcare collapse" that floods the streets.
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On Mar 19, the NHK published the full text of the goverment experts' meeting and it is said that herd immunity could not be expected for Hokkaido, the hardest hit region.
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/special/coronavirus/view/
４．北海道で実施すべき対策
感染を急速に収束の方向に向かわせるためには、人と人との接触を最大限に避けることが必須です。これを、いま集中して実施すべきです。
もし、こうした対策が行われず、人々が何も行動を変化させない場合、感染者数が急増し(赤い上 昇線)、一定の潜伏期間後に発症者数も急増することが予想されます(青い上昇線)。その一部の方々は、重症化する可能性があります。こうした事態に至ると、多くの人々に健康被害をもたらすほか、医療提供体制に甚大な悪影響を及ぼす事態を招きます。
しかし、現時点で、人々が急速な感染拡大を抑制するために適切な行動へ切り替えれば、新規の 感染者数は急速に減少していくと見込まれます(赤い点線)。これがうまくいけば、今後、患者数が急激に増えることはありません(青い点線)。ただし、潜伏期間があるため、患者数の減少が確認できるまでにはタイムラグがありますので、人々の行動が大きく変わってから2週間ほど経過しないと、その効果を評価することはできません。
なお、感染症のなかには、大多数の人々が感染することによって、感染の連鎖が断ち切られ、感染していない人を保護する仕組みが機能できるものもあります(集団免疫の獲得)。しかし、現在の感染状況は集団免疫を期待できるレベルではありません。
また、一度感染した人が再び感染するかどうかは、まだわかっていません。
4. Measures to be implemented in Hokkaido
It is imperative to minimize human-to-human contact in order for infection to move quickly toward convergence. We are going to focus on this now.
If these measures are taken, or if no changes are made by the people or by any action, the number of infected people will increase rapidly (red ascending line), and after a certain incubation period, the number of affected people will increase rapidly (blue increase). line). Some of them may be more severe. This can lead to health damage for many people and severe adverse effects on the healthcare delivery system.
However, at this point, the number of new cases is expected to decline rapidly (red dashed lines) once the people have switched to appropriate actions to curb the rapid spread of infection. If this works or not, the number of patients will not increase rapidly (dotted blue line). However, because of the incubation period, it is time-consuming to check for a decrease in the number of patients, so it is not possible to evaluate the effect of people's behavior until two weeks have passed since the behavior changed significantly.
For some infectious diseases, the majority of people are infected, the chain of infection is cut off, and there is a mechanism to protect non-infected people(acquisition of herd immunity). However, the current status of infection is not at the level where herd immunity is expected.
Also, it is not known whether the person will be infected or re-infected.
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Last but not least,
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/22/world/asia/coronavirus-japan-cruise-ship.html
“We’re in a petri dish,” Mr. Montgomery said. “It’s an experiment. We’re their guinea pigs.”
Ms. Montgomery eventually persuaded the ship’s medical office to let the couple leave their cabin for an exam. A doctor gave them flu tests, which came back negative. The doctor prescribed an antibiotic for Ms. Montgomery’s urinary tract infection.
They still did not get tested for the coronavirus. The couple later evacuated with the Americans.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...rough-virus-quarantine-in-japan-idUSKBN20D22T
But the Smiths supported Japan’s response and understood the need for them to remain in quarantine until they are free of the virus.
“This is so new and unprecedented that I don’t think the medical community has any current, firm knowledge of what’s going on there,” Clyde said, adding that Japan was doing its best “to prevent a real pandemic worldwide.”
Renee, with a broad smile, added, “so we’re being unwilling guinea pigs.”
https://apnews.com/0f0026db4e98f1588aed1b462e224f01
TOKYO (AP) — As an extraordinary two-week quarantine of a cruise ship ends Wednesday in Japan, many scientists say it was a failed experiment: The ship seemed to become an incubator for a new virus instead of an isolation facility meant to prevent the worsening of an outbreak.
