Economy would get disrupted anyway if there's no intervention, simply because the number of sick people is already so high that those otherwise (still-)healthy people can't possibly go about their lives as usual anymore, when more and more of those people will fall sick as the day goes by, even if they try to ignore it. Look what happened on the
USS Roosevelt, whose captain fortunately decided the human cost was greater. OTOH, you can't expect overwhelmed hospitals to have extra resources for elective surgeries, when those ventilators, PPE etc, for better or for worse, can be used to save COVID-19 patients. You risk getting those at-risk patients infected as well if you insist.
A lockdown is therefore a desperate, last-ditch effort to "reset" the infection rate, once transmission has spiraled out of control. Doing so gives you the chance to "turn back the clock" and potentially move from mitigation back to containment. That's actually the fastest way to get things back to normal. How long it'll take depends how fast you can "clean up after yourself", either through recovery or death for the already infected, so that the healthcare system can once again cope with new cases flowing in at a controlled pace as soon as you move back to containment.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2764956
I never referenced that 3% estimate. It was your choice to bring it up. Either way, the point of interest is the passage about Native American, which I explicitly cited, as an "evidence" of herd immunity.
"...no guarantee that these people would not have died when the economy opens up again..." I wonder how the family members of the already deceased feel about it. Sweden is getting so much heat exactly because of this "lost cause" mentality.
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/MRr42B/borlange-vi-har-begravt-dubbelt-sa-manga-som-vanligt
"The doors to dad's accommodation were closed on 1 April, rightly so. But the only ones who were protected were us outside. The infection was locked up with all the old ones. Six people in the hallway next to dad's have died. To him, it's like sitting in a waiting room to death.
4/24
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidn...-over-as-coronavirus-cases-leap/#1cbe533f573f