JTTA: Selection System to be Revamped for Paris 2024

[NextLevel]

In 2016 ZJK played against an injured Samsonov iirc. There was a real chance
And Japan pair won G1 in the team event. They were close to being 2-1 up in doubles. If they won I believe Mizutani could have won ZJK in singles

The injured Samsonov who beat Dima and then lost to ZJK and Mizutani. I guess there was a chance but it did not materialize. Even JYS troubled ML and had ZJK on the ropes in teams as well but ZJK showed that when there are stakes, he will throw the kitchen sink at you so there is always a chance but my point is that never underestimate China because the chances never seem to be realized.

 

[pongfugrasshopper]

Miyu Nagasaki very emotional after winning the All Japan Women's Doubles title with her bestie Kihara. Kihara showcasing her doubles skills with All Japan titles in both WD and XD.

 

[zeio]

Hayata seems like the odd one out now lol, with her longstanding WD partner Ito probably too haughty to be the third team player + she has no luck herself against the top 3 Tokyo trio (CM, SYS, WMY). Standing awkwardly as a stable player who will do well helping her sisters get to late stages (SF/F) in the Olympics yet probably insufficient of crossing any major lines when need be.

It's sad to see Hayata getting marooned here. It's not the first time. Ito marooned Hayata by skipping ATTC 2019. That has left a negative impression and therefore I was not surprised when she chose to opt out of WT of Asian Games 2022 and when she hinted at the possibility for Paris 2024. Everyone chose to look the other way back then because she had the results but now? Leave her name in history again? She has the balls to talk like that. Now you see why I insisted on Hayata beating Ito AT LEAST ONCE, which she FINALLY, FINALLY, FINALLY (yes, on the 3rd try) did at Zennoh Cup Tokyo, but only with the help of Hirano!

https://web.archive.org/web/2024012...hon-takkyu-2024-1-2228_topic91479_page33.html (07/28/2023 at 3:35pm)

From the youtube comments below, Ito meant it. Coupled with the 5ch comments, TV Tokyo's leaving that part out, which is taken by most people as merely a smokescreen, is a pretty accurate "interpretation". Compare that with Hirano's response to the same question. The fact that Ito pulled out of the WT of Asian Games after failing to qualify for singles makes her stance crystal clear.

Another sign is the doubles lineup for ATTC 2023, which suggests the JTTA is aware and preparing for that scenario. Ito also doesn't mention doubles anymore in the recent Yomiuri interview. Looking back, she chose to opt out of ATTC 2019 when far ahead in the race and because of that, Hayata couldn't even play doubles (Hirano/Ishikawa and Shibata/Sato) after losing the singles spot to Kato at the WTTC 2019 trial.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ou5sZ8A8Adc?t=4023

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4J_JxMOH1jE?t=3728

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnisGSRBf1M?t=4252

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=naxoCORqMMQ?t=2615

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xzh58RHJVwg?t=14

 

[pongfugrasshopper]

Hayata is fine. She can play doubles with any of the top players (Hirano, Miwa, Kihara). And due to Ito's consistency issues, the new pairing may have an even better chance. You can deride Hayata all you want, but I suspect the CNT coaching staff won't be so nonchalant given Hayata's too close for comfort match with SYS in the Olympic year.

 

[zeio]

Those of us who watched Ito know why she was credited. People can rewrite the narratives now if they want to, but some of us remember clearly that one of the reasons why Chen Meng became an Olympic champion against the grain of prior selection strategies was that she didnt lose to Ito. Hirano was considered solved in 2017 with the long push and force her to open strategy and her loss of confidence that followed those losses when she became enemy #1.

Even Ito acknowledges and credits Hirano for being the catalyst in an interview in 10/2021 with Table Tennis Kingdom (2 months after Tokyo 2020 and 1 month ahead of WTTC 2021). This fact is not widely recognized and should be pointed out whenever necessary. Hirano is the trailblazer. If not for the Hirano then, there would not be the Ito next. If not for Hirano and Ito, there would not be the Hayata now (which Hayata has acknowledged time and time again).

Also, LGL still considered Hirano a greater threat than Ito when he commentated during the WT final between China and Japan at Team World Cup 2018.

Can't locate the post I made now so making it again.

「独創の剣」で中国に立ち向かう伊藤美誠の宣言。「世界選手権は優勝します」 (Ito Mima's declaration to stand up to China with her "Sword of Originality." "I will win the WTTC")
https://world-tt.com/blog/news/archives/13266

「リオ五輪のあとに平野選手が勝っていく姿、
アジア選手権でも私が負けたあとに
3人の中国選手を倒して優勝していく姿を見て、
自分自身を変えようと思いました」（伊藤）

"When I saw Hirano win after the Rio Olympics
and defeating 3 Chinese players to win
at the Asian Championships after I lost,
it made me want to change myself." (Ito)

https://world-tt.com/blog/news/product/az296

 

[driversbeat]

Hayata is fine. She can play doubles with any of the top players (Hirano, Miwa, Kihara). And due to Ito's consistency issues, the new pairing may have an even better chance. You can deride Hayata all you want, but I suspect the CNT coaching staff won't be so nonchalant given Hayata's too close for comfort match with SYS in the Olympic year.

Hayata should play doubles for the team event, but watch JNT will force their two times world women's doubles silver medalist and reigning mixed doubles runner up to play two singles.

Edit: silver medalist not champion

 

[Shine]

So some of us remember that Zhu Yuling was the golden child and that she and Li Sun started having arguments after Mima beat her in tour matches, including one where she embarrassed the ambassador from China who wanted to present the trophy to a Chinese lady but had to present it to a Japanese because of Mima. It was these things that began the souring of Zhu Yuling's career and while I didn't know about her cancer diagnosis, having lost relatives to the disease, I wouldn't be surprised if it contributed. Because Zhu after those losses went from being the heir apparent at the Olympic Games in 2016 to not even making the team in 2020. Chen Meng started her whole Olympic Games project by beating Ito.

Ding Ning was scheduled to retire, but I am sure she would have wanted to play on to for another OG Gold if possible and she has the birthright tradirionally as 2017 Champion. But when the losses mounted, there is no argument to stay on. And she had clear style issues vs Ito that made any desire for another medal too risky.

So I get your position but I don't see your position as something that means that the story is simply that Zhu Yuling and Ding Ning's struggles with remaining undefeated against Ito did not keep them out of the OG singles competition. The way the Chinese completely turned over the 2016 team in 2021 was partly driven by Ito. I lived through those events like you did so I find your erasing all the things that happened and not remembering the need for many players to prove they were immune to losing to Ito before being given Olympic spots to be weird. But it is okay, we both remember it differently.

All top Chinese players have to prove that they're near invisible against the closest opponents. It's standard procedure for the team. Not something that is peculiar to Ito. Even now SYS,CM & WMY have to prove their mettle against their adversaries from Japan, Korea and the relatively rarer Euro upset. I don't think Xiao Zhu arguing with coaches after a match she lost "soured" her career, sure it might have put her in a position with something to prove to the coaches, but I've seen Chinese players win matches and the coaches still express their displeasure at what happened.

About Zhu being the heir apparent at 2016, but not in the team in 21??
That was five years remember, enough time for upstarts like SYS, WMY to break out. Xiao Zhu was golden child in 16/17. SYS and WMY broke out in mid 17', and they were already equals/slight favourites to Zhu by 19 when Zhu had a couple loses to Ito. And then late 19/early 20 She came down with the lymphoma. By that time CM and SYS were already higher in the ranking plus they could manage Ito well. Sorry to say, It's just survival of the fittest.

 

[NextLevel]

All top Chinese players have to prove that they're near invisible against the closest opponents. It's standard procedure for the team. Not something that is peculiar to Ito. Even now SYS,CM & WMY have to prove their mettle against their adversaries from Japan, Korea and the relatively rarer Euro upset. I don't think Xiao Zhu arguing with coaches after a match she lost "soured" her career, sure it might have put her in a position with something to prove to the coaches, but I've seen Chinese players win matches and the coaches still express their displeasure at what happened.

About Zhu being the heir apparent at 2016, but not in the team in 21??
That was five years remember, enough time for upstarts like SYS, WMY to break out. Xiao Zhu was golden child in 16/17. SYS and WMY broke out in mid 17', and they were already equals/slight favourites to Zhu by 19 when Zhu had a couple loses to Ito. And then late 19/early 20 She came down with the lymphoma. By that time CM and SYS were already higher in the ranking plus they could manage Ito well. Sorry to say, It's just survival of the fittest.

You can have the final word. You are free to rewrite history as you choose.

 

[NextLevel]

Even Ito acknowledges and credits Hirano for being the catalyst in an interview in 10/2021 with Table Tennis Kingdom (2 months after Tokyo 2020 and 1 month ahead of WTTC 2021). This fact is not widely recognized and should be pointed out whenever necessary. Hirano is the trailblazer. If not for the Hirano then, there would not be the Ito next. If not for Hirano and Ito, there would not be the Hayata now (which Hayata has acknowledged time and time again).

Also, LGL still considered Hirano a greater threat than Ito when he commentated during the WT final between China and Japan at Team World Cup 2018.

Can't locate the post I made now so making it again.

「独創の剣」で中国に立ち向かう伊藤美誠の宣言。「世界選手権は優勝します」 (Ito Mima's declaration to stand up to China with her "Sword of Originality." "I will win the WTTC")
https://world-tt.com/blog/news/archives/13266

"When I saw Hirano win after the Rio Olympics
and defeating 3 Chinese players to win
at the Asian Championships after I lost,
it made me want to change myself." (Ito)

https://world-tt.com/blog/news/product/az296

Not doubting that Hirano was inspirational. My point is that Ito should be commended for her distinct achievements and that for the 2020/2021 Olympics, it was about Ito as enemy #1. Not Hirano. Hirano didn't win the bronze singles medal at the Olympics. Ito was usually unbeatable if the opponent wasn't Chinese or Japanese. Even during the post 2020/2021 cycle, this was reliably the case.

 

[zeio]

Speaking of the loophole in Hirano's game back then, Miyazaki went into detail with Butterfly in Part 41 of "Strengthening Front Line" in 1/2020 on the CNT's tactics against Hirano after ATTC 2017 and what Hirano worked on in response to that.

http://webcache.googleusercontent.c.../on-miu-hiranos-recent-status_topic80397.html (09/29/2017 at 5:48pm)

強化のフロントライン41 日本女子の現在地　平野美宇について
https://www.butterfly.co.jp/takurepo/interview/detail/013632.html

中国が平野対策として繰り出してきた戦術とは？

　勝てない時期を乗り越えて東京オリンピック女子団体戦代表候補選手の座をつかんだ平野ですが、低迷していた原因はかなり明確に分かっています。
　その原因とは、「ツッツキを打たされるケースが多くなった」ことです。

　平野と丁寧（中国）の対戦で、2017年に勝った試合と負けた試合を比較したところ、興味深いデータが得られました。
　2017年のアジア選手権大会で平野が丁寧に勝った試合では、丁寧が平野に送ったツッツキの回数は一桁でした。ところが、世界卓球2017デュッセルドルフ女子シングルス準決勝で平野が敗れた時は、丁寧は平野に30を越える数のツッツキを送っています。
　このデータが物語るように、丁寧、すなわち中国は、平野対策として「平野にツッツキを数多く打たせる戦術」を繰り出してきました。
　世界一と言っても過言ではない打球点の速さを持つ平野がひとたび両ハンドを振り始めたら、最強の中国をもってしても止めるのは至難の技です。ならば、ラリーの始めから速いピッチで平野と打ち合うのではなく、平野にツッツキを送り、まずは時間に余裕をつくってから攻略しようというのが、中国が編み出した平野対策でした。
　平野にツッツキを打たせる戦術は、世界卓球2017デュッセルドルフの丁寧以降、ほかの中国選手も使うようになりました。このあたりの徹底ぶりはさすが中国というほかありませんが、ツッツキを多く打たされる戦術を使われて以降、平野は中国選手に勝てなくなり、それに伴って調子を落としていきました。
　
　現在、平野はツッツキに対して、強攻だけではなく、ループドライブも効果的に使うようになり、弱点を克服しつつあります。今後は、ツッツキに対して高いドライブや遅いドライブを使う、相手にツッツキをさせない展開を工夫する、あるいはツッツキを攻めた後の展開を強化するなどして、さらに弱点をカバーしてほしいと思います。

　先に、平野は好不調の波が激しいと述べましたが、調子の波をつくり出すのは、誰かではなく、ほかならぬ自分です。そのことは、勝てないつらい時期を耐えた平野自身が一番よく分かっているはずです。
　平野には、弱点と向き合いつつ、長所をさらに伸ばし、これまでで一番高い波に乗った状態で東京オリンピックを迎えてほしいと思います。

 

[Takkyu_wa_inochi]

Miyu Nagasaki very emotional after winning the All Japan Women's Doubles title with her bestie Kihara. Kihara showcasing her doubles skills with All Japan titles in both WD and XD.

 

[zeio]

Hayata should play doubles for the team event, but watch JNT will force their two times world women's doubles champion and reigning mixed doubles runner up to play two singles.

If you ask me, Kihara/Harimoto should play doubles. Hayata, Hirano and Harimoto should play janken pon to decide who will play singles. Then JTTA should play the reserve card like South Korea did at London 2012 and China at Tokyo 2020.

 

[FIXPOINT]

This table shows the match records between female players from Japan and China over the years 2001 to 2023. The data is based on the ITTF Stats website. All match records are too numerous to be clearly displayed in a table. Therefore, first, I selected 24 Japanese players who represented Japan in the World Championship team events during this period and their 84 Chinese opponents (excluding junior and youth matches) to research their match records. I ranked them first by the number of wins and then by the number of losses, choosing the top 11 Japanese players and the top 40 Chinese players. This table shows their match records. Looking at this table, there seems to be no reason to believe that the probability of the next Olympic Japanese team winning gold medals is higher than that of past players winning gold medals at the World Championships or Olympics. However, when sending players to a tournament, wishes of both supporters and players to "aim for victory" is the same. I think this is not a matter of the probability of wishes coming true but a matter of human sentiment("Ninjo").

 

[zeio]

Like Tieba users have been saying, WYD sticks out like a sore thumb...

 

[NextLevel]

Like Tieba users have been saying, WYD sticks out like a sore thumb...

Not as far as I can see. She stil ln has good odds against everyone not named Hayata and that could still flip even further in her favor with focused training.

 

[zeio]

Not as far as I can see. She stil ln has good odds against everyone not named Hayata and that could still flip even further in her favor with focused training.

Check out her stats and the discussion over at Tieba. She's lost the most in Paris 2024 cycle.

WS foreign losses in Paris 2024 cycle (2021/8/15-)
SYS
F 3-4 Hirano at WTT CT Zagreb 2023 (4 H2H 1, 0 H2H 1 in WS)
CM
R16 2-3 Szocs at WTT CS Macao 2022
R32 2-3 Samara at Singapore Smash 2023 (4 H2H 1, 0 H2H 1 in WS)
R16 2-3 Szocs at WTT Frankfurt 2023 (3 H2H 2)
WMY
R16 0-3 Doo Hoi Kem at WTT CF Singapore 2021 (1 H2H 2, 0 H2H 1 in WS)
R32 2-3 Yuan Jia Nan at WTT CS Macao 2022 (2 H2H 1)
WYD
QF 2-3 Ni Xia Lian at WTT CT Novo Mesto 2021 (2 H2H 1)
R32 2-3 Hirano at Singapore Smash 2023 (4 H2H 1)
QF 3-4 Hayata at WTTC 2023
SF 3-4 Hayata at Asian Games 2022 (2 H2H 2)
R16 0-3 Kihara at WTT SCT Lanzhou 2023 (3 H2H 1, 2 H2H 1 in WS)
CXT
R16 3-4 Batra at Asian Cup 2022 (1 H2H 1)
R16 1-3 Han Ying at Singapore Smash 2023 (0 H2H 2)
R32 1-3 Szocs at WTT CS Macao 2023 (1 H2H 1)
QF 0-3 Yang Xiaoxin at WTT CT Taiyuan 2023 (2 H2H 1)

Note that the charts in the Tieba threads do not include WTT CS Frankfurt 2023 and beyond...
https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/forum/topics/wtt-star-contender-doha-2024.32659/post-439692

 

[NextLevel]

Check out her stats and the discussion over at Tieba. She's lost the most in Paris 2024 cycle.

WS foreign losses in Paris 2024 cycle (2021/8/15-)
SYS
F 3-4 Hirano at WTT CT Zagreb 2023 (4 H2H 1, 0 H2H 1 in WS)
CM
R16 2-3 Szocs at WTT CS Macao 2022
R32 2-3 Samara at Singapore Smash 2023 (4 H2H 1, 0 H2H 1 in WS)
R16 2-3 Szocs at WTT Frankfurt 2023 (3 H2H 2)
WMY
R16 0-3 Doo Hoi Kem at WTT CF Singapore 2021 (1 H2H 2, 0 H2H 1 in WS)
R32 2-3 Yuan Jia Nan at WTT CS Macao 2022 (2 H2H 1)
WYD
QF 2-3 Ni Xia Lian at WTT CT Novo Mesto 2021 (2 H2H 1)
R32 2-3 Hirano at Singapore Smash 2023 (4 H2H 1)
QF 3-4 Hayata at WTTC 2023
SF 3-4 Hayata at Asian Games 2022 (2 H2H 2)
R16 0-3 Kihara at WTT SCT Lanzhou 2023 (3 H2H 1, 2 H2H 1 in WS)
CXT
R16 3-4 Batra at Asian Cup 2022 (1 H2H 1)
R16 1-3 Han Ying at Singapore Smash 2023 (0 H2H 2)
R32 1-3 Szocs at WTT CS Macao 2023 (1 H2H 1)
QF 0-3 Yang Xiaoxin at WTT CT Taiyuan 2023 (2 H2H 1)

Note that the charts in the Tieba threads do not include WTT CS Frankfurt 2023 and beyond...
https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/forum/topics/wtt-star-contender-doha-2024.32659/post-439692

Good that the Tieba users agree with you.

 

[zeio]

SF so boring. How did these two reach here? Teammate killers indeed...

Hayata 4-0 Akae (9, 5, 6, 4)
Hayata even tried to "practice" her reverse pendulum serve (and served into the net) on match point at 103.

Yokoi 0-4 Harimoto (-5, -6, -6, -7)

 

[fore.n.back]

SF so boring. How did these two reach here? Teammate killers indeed...

Hayata 3-0 Akae
Yokoi 0-3 Harimoto

lmao the difference in basics techniques is too visible. Yokoi can only fight desperately on her BH, Akae was a bit more balanced on both wings, but both don't possess a powerful FH. They either get blasted on their FH or trying to hold the BH rally before losing to Hayata and Miwa sheer quality.

For the first time in a while, All Japan M-SF are more worth-watching than W-SF

 

[mikeytt]

hayata and miwa a step above the rest