Japan Open 2018 - a beginning of the new trend?

[jawien]

Okay. I will unblock and respond to this quickly.

Sure ... thanks for "unblocking".

 

[bircham boi]

Ma Long - January 2014 WR 1; currently WR 2
Zhang Jike - January 2014 WR 4; currently WR 102
Xu Xin - January 2014 WR 2; currently WR 6
Fan Zhendong - January 2014 WR 5; currently WR 1
Timo Boll - January 2014 WR 8; currently WR 4
Dimitrij Ovchtarov - January 2014 WR 6; WR 3
Vladimir Samsonov - January 2014 WR 10; currently WR 26
Niwa Koki - Jamuary 2014 WR 18; currently WR 9
Lee Sangsu - January 2014 WR 56; currently WR 8
Harimoto Tomokazu - September 2014 WR 836; currently WR 10

What might we derive from this data? Old players get older and slide down the rankings: Samsonov. Some players get injured and can't compete for rankings points: ZJK. Most compete backwards and forwards, ranking varying by small degrees: Boll, Ovchtarov, XX and FZD. Some make steady gains as they mature: Lee Sangsu.

Only one player listed has radically failed to follow one of those patterns.

How does that indicate that the entire world of table tennis has been radically changed since the introduction of the ABS ball?

Chen Meng - January 2014 WR 6; currently WR 1
Zhu Yuling - January 2014 WR 7; currently WR 2
Liu Shiwen - January 2014 WR 1; currently WR 5
Ding Ning - January 2014 WR 2; currently WR 12
Feng Tianwei - January 2014 WR 5; currently WR 9
Ishikawa Kasumi - January 2014 WR 10, currently WR 4
Samara Elizabeta - January 2014 WR 28; currently WR 19
Sofia Polcanova - January 2014 WR 99; currently WR 18
Ito Mima - January 2014 WR 60; currently 6
Hirano Miu - January 2014 WR 69; currently 7

Exactly the same patterns for female players. The two biggest movers are Ito and Hirano, but nowhere near the same as for Harimoto. Has the new ball changed things? Perhaps somewhat, but hardly affected the natural order of things.

What then to make of HT? My personal take is that he's an outlier. He was always going to be good, given his parentage, his opportunities, his work ethic and his coaching. The only oddity is perhaps his playing style does take advantage of a loophole (pun not intended) in Chinese technique which is a little more noticeable because the ball is ever so slightly different.

My prediction? He won't win gold in 2020, but he will make the most noise.

 

[zeio]

Uh, at least get the date right here. The 40+ was officially introduced in July, 2014. The first senior event that used 40+ was the World Cup 2014. The last senior event that used 40mm celluloid ball was the Asian Games 2014. Several junior events still used the celluloid after that date.

Please keep that in mind.

 

[Andy44]

Interesting post from bircham boi. But change in rank order isn't what I'd look for as a result of the new ball, because I don't think it was quite such a radical change. My guess is there was a more subtle leveling effect. Probably easiest to test by looking for something like a decrease in the spread of Elo scores. If correct it would essentially give players a lower mountain to climb to get to the top, while still requiring prodigious talent to climb as high as Harimoto before turning 15.

 

[Baal]

Understand that some people seem to be arguing that it is the change from cellulose acetate 40+ to ABS 40+ that explains the success of Harimoto and predicts trouble for Ma Long at al. owing to an alleged lack of spin on ABS. See the first post on this thread and other threads related to this one. This seems to ignore a lot of important events that Ma Long and friends have won with ABS balls, but that point has already been made a few times.

Also introduction of 40+ in mid 2014 makes the point based on rankings in January 2014 stronger, not weaker. Not much changed really.

Of course the way ITTF computes rankings has changed too so that is a bit of a confound. So is turmoil on CNT.

In any case, the good news is that we seem to finally be converging onto a single ball standard. So ,maybe the nightmare may be ending before too long.

 

[jawien]

Understand that some people seem to be arguing that it is the change from cellulose acetate 40+ to ABS 40+ that explains the success of Harimoto and predicts trouble for Ma Long at al. owing to an alleged lack of spin on ABS. See the first post on this thread and other threads related to this one. This seems to ignore a lot of important events that Ma Long and friends have won with ABS balls, but that point has already been made a few times.

"[...] explains the success of Harimoto ..." - let me clarify.

I would not dare to attribute directly the results of Tomokazu to the characteristics of the new ball, neither people, on this thread, who are noticing the change in the game due to the equipment. In short:

1. Harimoto is someone special - no one denies it.
2. Probably all here would agree, that the ABS ball characteristics work (even slightly) in the favor of his style - to what extend - debatable (as documented in this thread).
3. "New style" seems to be a fact due to success of other Japan and not only Japan players. I know JNT has invested a lot in tt before Tokyo ..

4. My personal opinion - the physical demands of a spin loaded rallies back in the cell era, would give an edge to the more athletic ML and ZJK over Tomo in the hypothetical matches like we've seen in JP.

 

[jawien]

Der Echte wisely said, in his own way, few pages ago that it is useless to discuss "who wins more" or who wins less ...

True, but I'll tell you what is at stake at least for me, if the "new trend" will prove to be dominant for the next few years. The holy grail of longer rallies is not found yet and the new style seems to be going in the opposite direction, despite people, even ZKJ talking about stamina needed because of the change ... So far I haven't seen it. Basically every serve it being attacked and offensive, high risk game is dominant. There is no way to shield yourself with the spin anymore, this is why is seems to me one of the control aspects in the game diminishes.

 

[Der_Echte]

Jawien,

Immediately change your physical location, Turn off your cell phone, remove the battery, Don a different jacket, and change your location again. Wear of foil hat is optional as a fashion accessory.

The Goon Squad might be trying to track you down for publicly accusing Der_Echte of being wise... unless it was accusing me of being a wise guy, cracking wise-azz jokes, or something of that nature.

In that case, the same Goon Squad might be visiting you to present you a medal.

If I was ever wise, it happened unintentionally and totally by accident. Sometimes it happens.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

 

[usualsuspect]

Der Echte wisely said, in his own way, few pages ago that it is useless to discuss "who wins more" or who wins less ...

True, but I'll tell you what is at stake at least for me, if the "new trend" will prove to be dominant for the next few years. The holy grail of longer rallies is not found yet and the new style seems to be going in the opposite direction, despite people, even ZKJ talking about stamina needed because of the change ... So far I haven't seen it. Basically every serve it being attacked and offensive, high risk game is dominant. There is no way to shield yourself with the spin anymore, this is why is seems to me one of the control aspects in the game diminishes.

If spin is less important now, I'm thinking short pips players should be coming back in major ways. Two examples I can think of are Ito Mima and Mattias Karlsson. Just wondering if there are other short pips players moving up in world rankings that I don't know about.

 

[jawien]

Jawien,

Immediately change your physical location, Turn off your cell phone, remove the battery, Don a different jacket, and change your location again. Wear of foil hat is optional as a fashion accessory.
The Goon Squad might be trying to track you down for publicly accusing Der_Echte of being wise... unless it was accusing me of being a wise guy, cracking wise-azz jokes, or something of that nature.
In that case, the same Goon Squad might be visiting you to present you a medal.
If I was ever wise, it happened unintentionally and totally by accident. Sometimes it happens.

Der_Echte,

thank you for the warning and sorry for the accusination! Since I'm a naturally born optimist I'm really tempted to think the Goon Squad will want to perform a medal ceremony on me - either way! Anyways ... I took your advise about the hat seriously and I'm convinced it is great for fashion! Hope the Goon Squad won't want to put any salt in my delicate conjectures as a courteous exchange token for the gold ... really worried here, but I'll try to sleep it over or better yet simultaneously watch some 60'ties movies classics while eating wild cherries ... oh well.

yours, truly.

If spin is less important now, I'm thinking short pips players should be coming back in major ways. Two examples I can think of are Ito Mima and Mattias Karlsson. Just wondering if there are other short pips players moving up in world rankings that I don't know about.

There is this new Chinese girl .. she did pretty well in China Open or that tournament before China ...
I'm telling you, LGL will come back. He can't be a coach but hey, here's a chance ... ; )

 

[Der_Echte]

Well, Bell Bottom pant legs on pants made a fashion comeback, so why not tin hats?

Really though, no one ever accused me of being wise.... at least with a straight face.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

 

[jawien]

I feel like explaining the straight face wise Der's controversy ... I do solemnly admit, it might have been those 60ties movies effect, or Dave Allen's religious piety overdose ... some people say it's just beer, but who believes them these days ...

 

[UpSideDownCarl]

Man, the goon squad is at it again. Well, the bell bottom pants and the tin hat definitely help.

And if you can set up the Pokémon Go scenario to lead the goon squad to the trap door on the Brooklyn Bridge, thinking they are going to capture a stack of ZJK’s Personal H3 with ZJK’s signature, then that will be even more betterer. [emoji2]


Sent from The Subterranean Workshop by Telepathy

 

[jawien]

If spin is less important now, I'm thinking short pips players should be coming back in major ways. Two examples I can think of are Ito Mima and Mattias Karlsson. Just wondering if there are other short pips players moving up in world rankings that I don't know about.

I just checked this Chinese girl (not sure about her age), it was Hong Kong Open - HE Zhuojia, she did beat Liu Shiwen after loosing to Chen Xingtong in the semis.
To prove Mattias is doing pretty good too, he just beat Simon Gauzy in the India's UTTL.

 

[ZhouZhekai]

Just a point to CNT turmoil and the LGL. When LGL took his head coach position in 2003, the CNT was also in "Turmoil". The lost the Olympics, and Boll beat them at the World Cup, and 3 Chinese in a row. Some Danish Guy beat two Chinese, including young OP Wang Hao by lobbing. The thing which happened after Gouzheng took his office was that they lost the World Cup, and some Opens. I do not even think that it is causation, but that the turmoil is rather correlation.

 

[yoass]

I'm telling you, LGL will come back. He can't be a coach but hey, here's a chance ... ; )

Ah, now that would be a thing. "Liu Guoliang, The Return — Pips on Fire". I believe LGL is 42 now, the age at which Jörgen Persson made it to the semifinals of the 2008 olympics, iirc. Well, I'm for it!

 

[fais]

What then to make of HT? My personal take is that he's an outlier. He was always going to be good, given his parentage, his opportunities, his work ethic and his coaching. The only oddity is perhaps his playing style does take advantage of a loophole (pun not intended) in Chinese technique which is a little more noticeable because the ball is ever so slightly different.

100% this.

 

[ajtatosmano2]

No different from LYJ? In what world?

 

[jawien]

Ah, now that would be a thing. "Liu Guoliang, The Return — Pips on Fire". I believe LGL is 42 now, the age at which Jörgen Persson made it to the semifinals of the 2008 olympics, iirc. Well, I'm for it!

True, I've seen Jörgen about a year ago in Polish Superleague. He did pretty well.

No different from LYJ? In what world?

LYJ, could you decode?

 

[ajtatosmano2]

It supposed to be an answer to the post, where someone wrote that Lin Yun Ju plays like Harimoto....just my tablet browser didn't quoted the original post.