Japan Open 2018 - a beginning of the new trend?

[langel]

I admit that I am biased against Harimoto because I like the traditional idea of Table Tennis as a gentleman's sport and I feel that his incessant screaming after every point is disrespectful to the game.

However, I also cannot see the difference between his game and that of say, Lin Gaoyuan or Lin Yun Ju, so for me his game is not unique.

I must asure you, that at the Gentlemen's times of TT, as its a traditional English sport, the women's screemings, of women playing TT with big hats and long dresses, were much more incessant, intrudent enough to corrupt the bridge game of the Lords next door.

 

[mrk]

Based on the final alone here is my opinion - An injured ZJK ( of celluloid era) almost won against Harimoto ( he had matchpoint) If ZJK was in prime shape he would have easily won in irrespective of the ball.

And if Harimoto didn't had to play a HF some hours before the final like ZJK, Harimoto would have easily won in irrespective of the ball, based on the entire performance of the tournament.

 

[jawien]

You should check out the one in Paris. It went exactly like this Japan Open, even the game score unfolded in exactly the same manner. In both instances, ML kept popping up the receives, and barely made one chiquita. He was reluctant to initiate BH exchanges and actively fell back on his FH, especially in the 6th game.

Yep, I watched the extended highlights again (WH - ML Paris 2013), it was funny to see how WH tried to apply pressure on ML the same way TH did during THE last JPO. Even their fh attacks where practically the same, close or over the table. The scheme repeated basically 3 time 2011 Rotterdam, 2012 World Cup (forgot the city) and Paris 2013. Each time ZJK proved to be more resistant to WH's early off the bounce, spiny reverse penhold grip back hands ... Maybe this is the key why ML lost so easy to Tomokazu and ZJK almost won. ML vs TH Polish Open 2015 does not serve well for the analysis, because Tomo was not on the level he presents today. In my personal opinion it was a real bad lack of Ma's that had to play those semis. Otherwise he could take those titles back than ...

Other observation I have is that spin back then was one of the aspects of the control game. It was easier to control your fh strokes if you could apply some spin on the ball and Ma was the master in this area. Now it seems there are a lot of mistakes players make on their fh strokes ... it's almost like they've lost the control on the ball without the spin.

Finally, anyone who writes "thanks to Em Rat Thic I know why" needs to think a bit more critically. ERT never bases what he says on any quantitative argument and there is no reason to think a Vietnamese guy living in France who we have never seen play has any special insights into the CNT.

EmRatThic proved to be quite knowledgeable on many other topics. I specially like his analysis of Hirano's victories during Asian Championships. From what I know and the little practical experience I have, it all "clicks" for me. I'll say it one more time, those heavy topspins applied on the cell ball by Ma or ZJK would be much harder to tame for a kid, Harimoto is right now. It would be physically impossible.

 

[Andy44]

Harimoto's the best 14 year old player of all time by an absurd margin. He's a legitimate top 10 player. He's amazing but he's not supernatural. His quick rise has been abetted by a poorly managed transition to the 40+ plastic ball. Elite level play has temporarily declined in consistency and quality. Harimoto's close to the table off the bounce style happens to work better with the new ball. His relatively weak forehand is hurting him less than it would have. Spin based styles have been hurt. Some of this stuff will wash out over the next few years as everyone adjusts (assuming we don't keep changing the equipment on them), but not Harimoto's once in a generation talent. Even so, it is a good question whether his close to the table style will have staying power, or whether elite players will start hitting hard enough to force him to step back. And is his talent really as unusual as it seems, or will the typical top 10 player be much younger in the next decade or two? Seems unlikely, but on the other hand maybe the new ball makes the game technically simpler but physically more demanding, so players will get better faster but burn out sooner.

 

[NextLevel]

Harimoto's the best 14 year old player of all time by an absurd margin. He's a legitimate top 10 player. He's amazing but he's not supernatural. His quick rise has been abetted by a poorly managed transition to the 40+ plastic ball. Elite level play has temporarily declined in consistency and quality. Harimoto's close to the table off the bounce style happens to work better with the new ball. His relatively weak forehand is hurting him less than it would have. Spin based styles have been hurt. Some of this stuff will wash out over the next few years as everyone adjusts (assuming we don't keep changing the equipment on them), but not Harimoto's once in a generation talent. Even so, it is a good question whether his close to the table style will have staying power, or whether elite players will start hitting hard enough to force him to step back. And is his talent really as unusual as it seems, or will the typical top 10 player be much younger in the next decade or two? Seems unlikely, but on the other hand maybe the new ball makes the game technically simpler but physically more demanding, so players will get better faster but burn out sooner.

What's the evidence that elite level play has temporarily declined in consistency and quality?

 

[tropical]

New ball theory is absurd! How can a single event outcome be attributed from a type of ball? Can't you guys see how ZJK adapted quickly to HT style after losing to him easily in China Open. He almost beat HT in game 7! Can't you guys see how ML was the China Open champion with the new ball kind of easily? Instead of blaming everything on the new ball we should have concentrated on why ML lost to HT without much of a fight where new ball is perhaps only a TINY factor.

 

[Baal]

New ball theory is absurd! How can a single event outcome be attributed from a type of ball? Can't you guys see how ZJK adapted quickly to HT style after losing to him easily in China Open. He almost beat HT in game 7! Can't you guys see how ML was the China Open champion with the new ball kind of easily? Instead of blaming everything on the new ball we should have concentrated on why ML lost to HT without much of a fight where new ball is perhaps only a TINY factor.

This needs to be repeated many times.

 

[quanghuysk]

New ball theory is absurd! How can a single event outcome be attributed from a type of ball? Can't you guys see how ZJK adapted quickly to HT style after losing to him easily in China Open. He almost beat HT in game 7! Can't you guys see how ML was the China Open champion with the new ball kind of easily? Instead of blaming everything on the new ball we should have concentrated on why ML lost to HT without much of a fight where new ball is perhaps only a TINY factor.

@Baal, 1 more time

 

[phorkyas]

New ball theory is absurd! How can a single event outcome be attributed from a type of ball? Can't you guys see how ZJK adapted quickly to HT style after losing to him easily in China Open. He almost beat HT in game 7! Can't you guys see how ML was the China Open champion with the new ball kind of easily? Instead of blaming everything on the new ball we should have concentrated on why ML lost to HT without much of a fight where new ball is perhaps only a TINY factor.

Well, you remember when Boll, Ovtcharov, Calderano or Pitchford were heralded as the new contender for the Chinese? Maybe the ABS ball is more durable... Or not.

Just wait. Maybe Ma Long just had a bad day, or do people still think he is a machine, like his record on international stage would suggest? Give that man a break (to play with his kid).

Sent from my ZTE Grand S II LTE using Tapatalk

 

[Andy44]

What's the evidence that elite level play has temporarily declined in consistency and quality?

Well, believe it or not, there's this 14 year old kid who can beat the top players now. If that's not enough to convince you, many players have commented about the difficulty of adjusting to and switching between multiple new balls. There was an interview I think I read on this site where a top player (Ovtcharov?) said that quality of play was being hurt by having to change equipment from one tournament to the next. I think it's fairly obvious that spin based styles of play have been adversely effected. Common sense suggests that a major equipment change will require technical adjustments from everyone, even those players who benefit from it. It stands to reason they won't play quite as well right away. And for the past several years as several different kinds of balls compete to become the standard, they've been shooting at a moving target. Do I have hard evidence that elite level play has been adversely effected? No. Do you have evidence that it hasn't?

 

[Andy44]

This needs to be repeated many times.

The hive mind speaketh.

 

[jawien]

Ok ... so Dima and Timo quoted here, talk about the effects the ball has on the game and performance of some players (CNT). Young boy, 14 years of age, has just beaten the world elite, his compatriot 16 years old Ito does the same in a similar style (the style), several other young players share the same success and there is no correlation, even absurd to draw such ... hmm ...

 

[NextLevel]

Well, believe it or not, there's this 14 year old kid who can beat the top players now. If that's not enough to convince you, many players have commented about the difficulty of adjusting to and switching between multiple new balls. There was an interview I think I read on this site where a top player (Ovtcharov?) said that quality of play was being hurt by having to change equipment from one tournament to the next. I think it's fairly obvious that spin based styles of play have been adversely effected. Common sense suggests that a major equipment change will require technical adjustments from everyone, even those players who benefit from it. It stands to reason they won't play quite as well right away. And for the past several years as several different kinds of balls compete to become the standard, they've been shooting at a moving target. Do I have hard evidence that elite level play has been adversely effected? No. Do you have evidence that it hasn't?

Of course I do. The world rankings didn't change that much if at all over the last 3 years since the plastic ball came out. The 14 year old is an isolated phenomenon who is not rivalled by anyone in his age group.

You can make up stuff all you want but you can't make up your own facts. A prodigy is the evidence you have that elite play has been adversely affected? Even though Zhang Jike is still a top player after coming back from injury? What an adverse effect!

When Dima made this complaint by the way, he was commenting about when the original plastic cellulose acetate ball was used in some tournaments and the Nittaku 40+ was used in others. And even then, were the top players different from who they are now?

Keep making up your own facts to explain Harimoto. I am still waiting for evidence that there are two Harimotos out there. Rather than accept his unique genius, you really need to start making up stuff? I was okay with the conjecture then you asked me to disprove your wild statements in the light of few changes if any in the world rankings or players winning events over the last few years?

 

[Andy44]

Of course I do. The world rankings didn't change that much if at all over the last 3 years since the plastic ball came out. The 14 year old is an isolated phenomenon who is not rivalled by anyone in his age group.

You can make up stuff all you want but you can't make up your own facts. A prodigy is the evidence you have that elite play has been adversely affected? Even though Zhang Jike is still a top player after coming back from injury? What an adverse effect!

When Dima made this complaint by the way, he was commenting about when the original plastic cellulose acetate ball was used in some tournaments and the Nittaku 40+ was used in others. And even then, were the top players different from who they are now?

Keep making up your own facts to explain Harimoto. I am still waiting for evidence that there are two Harimotos out there. Rather than accept his unique genius, you really need to start making up stuff? I was okay with the conjecture then you asked me to disprove your wild statements in the light of few changes if any in the world rankings or players winning events over the last few years?

Not up to your usual response, NextLevel. Which made up facts are you referring to? Which wild statements? Which fake news? Are you auditioning for the Trump administration now? How am I denying Harimoto's talent when I just called him "the best 14 year old player of all time by an absurd margin" and "a legitimate top 10 player?" For some reason, you and Baal and your followers have decided to take offense when someone raises the mere possibility that Harimoto's success is partially (partially!) explainable by something other than godlike talent. I happen to think it's an interesting question, but you are of course free to disagree.

 

[Baal]

Not up to your usual response, NextLevel. Which made up facts are you referring to? Which wild statements? Which fake news? Are you auditioning for the Trump administration now? How am I denying Harimoto's talent when I just called him "the best 14 year old player of all time by an absurd margin" and "a legitimate top 10 player?" For some reason, you and Baal and your followers have decided to take offense when someone raises the mere possibility that Harimoto's success is partially (partially!) explainable by something other than godlike talent. I happen to think it's an interesting question, but you are of course free to disagree.

Mainly I am reacting to comments about the role of the ABS ball in all this. I am simply not buying into it for reasons already given. I can't exclude that it might contribute somthing to it. But there are threads already asking about how is the CNT going to avoid the decline that must obviously arise from the adoption of this ball -- even as Tropical very correctly points out that one ought to be a bit cautious about reading too much into the results of one tournament.

I am going to go out on a limb and predict that the next world champion in Men's singles will be Ma Long. In spite of what seems to be ongoing turmoil surrounding the CNT since the firing of LGL.

 

[langel]

I know that there is a great difference between shiitake and tremella, but quit trumping the trump for yeterday mushrooms.
Got it, Andy?

 

[jawien]

Keep making up your own facts to explain Harimoto. I am still waiting for evidence that there are two Harimotos out there. Rather than accept his unique genius, you really need to start making up stuff? I was okay with the conjecture then you asked me to disprove your wild statements in the light of few changes if any in the world rankings or players winning events over the last few years?

The thing is it's not only Harimoto. How about: Ito (you tend to forget about), Hirano, LIN Yun-Ju, Truls Moregard - they all certainly know how to play bh off the bounce.

 

[NextLevel]

Not up to your usual response, NextLevel. Which made up facts are you referring to? Which wild statements? Which fake news? Are you auditioning for the Trump administration now? How am I denying Harimoto's talent when I just called him "the best 14 year old player of all time by an absurd margin" and "a legitimate top 10 player?" For some reason, you and Baal and your followers have decided to take offense when someone raises the mere possibility that Harimoto's success is partially (partially!) explainable by something other than godlike talent. I happen to think it's an interesting question, but you are of course free to disagree.

Baal and I have played with and probably understand the plastic ball better than many players who are mildly acquainted with them. Ther variation in ABS balls which have been used since April 2017 is very subtle and ended an era of confusion. Don't use statements made before then unless you actually know something about the balls.

I won't waste time pointing out all the evidence on this thread that I think that the current ABS plastic ball could play a role in the ability of players to take the ball earlier. I also agree that the spin effect is not as great forcing more rallies and reducing the effect of serve and third ball. Does that mean that we need to start making ridiculous statements about the current state of table tennis?

We aren't seeing a whole slew of 14 year olds at the top level. This 14/15 year old, by the way, was the WJTTC singles winner at a tournament that used a different plastic ball in 2016 when he was 13.5 years old (he is now 15), one that responded better to spin. The runner up at that tournament was Cho Seungmin, who has not achieved anything compared to what this 15 year old has. China didn't send it's A team U18 talent that year and people used it as a reason to be skeptical about how well he would have played against the likes of Wang Chuqin and Xue Fei.

What people have pointed out in other contexts was that it seemed to be taking a shorter time for younger players to get good. But this argument was made in the 40mm era by many players who blamed it on the ball, but never discussed the proliferation of high level coaching and proper technique.

If we were seeing more prodigies, I would sympathize with your argument. But then you start making a claim that the table tennis world is upside down. After Ma Long, the most unbeatable player of his era, had his first loss this year? He was equally unbeaten in 2015 when the world was upside up! When the top players in the world are still Timo Boll, Ma Long, Fan Zhendong and whoever elss you already knew about? Germany and China are still the top TT teams? Korea and Japan are still up there? The European powers are still the same?

Where is this evidence that the TT world is upside down other than Harimoto? The Harimoto who has shown the same volatility of any young player with great wins and bad losses. The kid has been playing since the age of 2 for God's sake.

 

[jawien]

I won't waste time pointing out all the evidence on this thread that I think that the current ABS plastic ball could play a role in the ability of players to take the ball earlier. I also agree that the spin effect is not as great forcing more rallies and reducing the effect of serve and third ball. Does that mean that we need to start making ridiculous statements about the current state of table tennis?

NextLevel I do respect your point of view, but please where have you seen those longer rallies? I watched those games ML had with WH 2011-13 time and time again and the rallies seem to be longer then in the last matches Tomo had with Ma Long or Jike in the JPO we so vigorously discuss.

"It's still chaos out there" to quote a past member of this forum and honestly I've seen much more order (and longer rallies) in Ping Pong, which now I like more and more.

 

[NextLevel]

NextLevel I do respect your point of view, but please where have you seen those longer rallies? I watched those games ML had with WH 2011-13 time and time again and the rallies seem to be longer then in the last matches Tomo had with Ma Long or Jike in the JPO we so vigorously discuss.

"It's still chaos out there" to quote a past member of this forum and honestly I've seen much more order (and longer rallies) in Ping Pong, which now I like more and more.

Okay. I will unblock and respond to this quickly.

I am a quant first and foremost. So when someone tells me that something is significant, I try to see how they are measuring it.

So when Andy44 said that top level play had been adversely affected, I might have read too much into his statement and hoped he had something more than the presence of Harimoto. Your bringing up Hirano etc. is similarly confusing. The Japanese has invested a lot into table tennis to catch up with the Chinese ahead of Tokyo. So has Korea. In other words, it is countries that are investing heavily in finding and growing junior talent that are creating it.

Is the effect of spin on the game lower? I suspect the answer is yes. But when saying it has turned the sport upside down, we need some evidence that the world rankings have been massively changed by the new balls. Good quantitative evidence. The style of play has changed sure. But the top players are still the top players. If the top players were no longer the top players I would get it. But if Zhang Jike, who was the poster child for spin based play, got to the finals of this event, and Timo Boll, who was the European poster child for same is doing almost as well as ever, let's keep things in context. Rather than saying that there is evidence that the new balls have transformed the playing landscape and that anyone who thinks the playing landscape is more the Same than different is confused or part of the hive mind.