Japan Women's Race to Tokyo 2020 Singles

says Shoo...nothing to see here. - zeio
says Shoo...nothing to see here. - zeio
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If she can't beat the qualifiers then she doesn't deserve to go to the Olympics. Simple as that. She definitely has the ability to win the qualifiers though. But she seems to be lacking mental strength.

For the time being, I wouldn't say she lacks mental strength.

I've pointed this out multiple times. After years of watching, Ito, Hirano and Hayata tend to play better when behind. You often see them give up a run of points only to come from behind. All 3 of them have displayed that they aren't used to having a big lead, which I attribute to the lack of experience, especially Hayata. Overall, all 3 of them have shown the clutch at various times.

Ishikawa, OTOH, tends to break down and detonate when she couldn't keep up with the score. Not just against CNT, but also Feng Tianwei, Doo Hoi Kem and a few others.
 
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The minimum points in the T2 Diamond event is 400, but losing in R16 at the World Cup will still get Ishikawa/Hirano 1020 pts. Ito will need to pull another 620 pts out of the balance of the year to make up for the short fall.
Until the number of Tournaments reached beyond 8, I think a meaningful competitive tally should count only the common denominator, in this case Ito’s total participation - 4. In this respect, based on their best 4, Ito is ahead at 5490, Ishikawa at 5020 & Hirano 4800.
Whether Hayata reaches WR top 20 before the end of year is only relevant for seeding, there is no way she can avoid the Chinese, and shouldn’t. She’s #9 currently in the JNT standings, it is this ranking (which Miyasaki was referring to post WTTC) that’s most important, as far as internal competition is concerned. Hayata simply is NOT in the running for the 2 Singles spot, not realistically.
 
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Compare:
Deductions of old bonuses when calculating ITTF rating:

Rating for july 2019
Ishikawa - 0(no bonuses 6/2018)
Ito - (-1800)
C.I.C. - (-1260)
Hirano - 0(no bonuses 6/2018)

Rating for august 2019:
Ishikawa - (-3600)
Ito - (-3150)
C.I.C. - (-1575)
Hirano - (-1575)

Rating for septemder 2019:
Ishikawa - (-1800)
Ito - 0(no bonuses 8/2018)
C.I.C. - (-945)
Hirano - (-2520)

It is theoretically possible that by September Ito in the ranking will be lower than the C.I.C .....
 
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I stopped looking at the current rankings, which reflects only 2018’s results, all of which will be zero out by end of 2019, and is therefore meaningless.
What I’m trying to say is, the reported rankings for the rest of this year DO NOT MATTER at all, except for seeding purposes. But the Chinese got all 4 Quadrants covered now, so no one will get into a CNT free zone anyway.
Both Ito & Ishikawa will loose big pts for their wins at Germany, Japan, Czech, Bulgaria, Sweden, unless they can duplicate the results this year. Less so for Hirano, because of her mediocre showings, so less ups & downs.
BUT NONE OF THESE RANKINGS MATTER. It’s what they’re going to score THIS year ending in December 2019 that counts, as indicates by apacible’s table.

(Somewhat off topic, so sorry....There is something that Tempest and I have been arguing, she thinks China now have absolute control and can decide who Japan gets to send to the Olympics. She thinks China will send Ishikawa & Hirano through to guarantee a Chinese win. We do not agree, but the only card I get to play is ‘sportmanship’, against her ‘national honour at stake’ Darn!)
 
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says Shoo...nothing to see here. - zeio
says Shoo...nothing to see here. - zeio
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Wait a second. You're telling me Tempest/Comet has DID?
 
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The ITTF rating from the beginning of 2020 will look like this(for WS):

The first five or six positions - Chinese women with points amounts of 16000-14000
All other positions with a maximum score of 12,000 will already be a good result ....Including top Japanese girls ....
China will not let them rise ....:(
 
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The table has turned here. Ito is now in the lead. Making it to the final in Hong Kong Open(1440 pts) already makes up for her 3rd round exit in WTTC 2019(900 pts).

Ishikawa's 4th round exit in WTTC 2019(1200 pts) followed by R16 finish in China Open(900 pts) and now R16 finish again in Hong Kong Open (720 pts) have sent her to the back of the pack.

Not to mention Ito and Hirano qualifying for the 1st Diamond event. In Ito's case especially, on top of her points for Hong Kong Open, simply playing in one T2(400 pts minimum) already gives her the rough equivalent of a 2nd place finish in World Cup.
 
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Unfortunately, Ito has noticeable deductions for old bonuses for 2018 ahead ....
(-1800) - 6/2018
(-3150=-1575*2) - 7/2018
By the way, Ishikawa has upcoming deductions even more ....
(-3600=-1800*2) - 7/2018
(-1800) - 8/2018

The probability that C.I.C. will be in the ITTF rating in August or September higher than Ishikawa and Ito, is very high ...
(She simply has less deductions than Ishikawa and Ito .....)
 
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Best 5 so far in 2019, (disregarding everything in the ITTF soon to expired past rankings).
This is what will count for Jan 2020
Ito 2000+1125+900+1465+1440 = 6930
Hirano 1500+900+1500+900+1170 = 5970
Ishikawa 1750+1170+1200+900+720 = 5740

Plus minimum of 400 pts for Ito & Hirano in T2.
Only 8 more WT(P) & WT events left.
 
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[size=+2]His Majesty,[/size] reigning Japan Emperor (Hirohito Junior) is alone to decide. He is a big admirer for Hina Hayata, we know.
 
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Wang Yidi has only seven entries in the ITTF rating ...6300+1800=8100...
If in Japan she reaches at least the semi-final - plus another 1015 ....This is the top 20 ....
(but Yidi is not claimed to participate in Korea and Australia ...)
 
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This time she was lucky ...(how not to jinx it ...)
:(But in order to keep the rating, she needs to reach at least the quarter finals .....
 
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Standings After the Hong Kong Open
JNT Standings May 2019 HK.jpg

The biggest takeaway from the HK Open is Ito and Hirano extending their leads over Ishikawa. At the start of the year, I thought that Ishikawa slipping out of the top 2 in Japan was very unlikely. It's funny how much things change after 6 months.

Should Ishikawa be concerned? Yes, she's not playing the first T2 Diamond tournament, so that definitely hurts her chances.
Can she still catch up? Definitely. However, her advantage of playing in the World Cup seems to have been offset by Ito's performance (and Ishikawa's less-than-stellar performance) in China and HK plus Ito's participation in T2.
Ishikawa's advantage over Hirano, which is seeding, is more sustainable as on a theoretical level. Ishikawa should get better draws in the next several tournaments, which could pave the way for her to finish one round better than Hirano for the next several tournaments, but Hirano seems to be playing better these days, so Ishikawa cannot simply rely on Hirano to perform worse than her.

This situation can only motivate Ishikawa to work harder to become a better player, which will help Team Japan in the long run. I look forward to see if she's up to the task. :)
 
says Shoo...nothing to see here. - zeio
says Shoo...nothing to see here. - zeio
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Ishikawa will have to go bust in the World Cup and ideally the Korean Open and Australian Open for that to happen.

Even if that happens, Sato will likely not be chosen for the 3rd spot as a chopper just doesn't pair well with an attacker.
 
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