Japan Women's Race to Tokyo 2020 Singles

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Standings after the Thailand Open
JNT Standings May 2019 Thailand.jpg

Interesting finish to the Thailand Open. Choppers win both the men's and women's singles. Last time this happened was in the 2016 Croatia Open where Joo Sae-hyuk and Hitomi Sato also emerged victorious.

The Thailand Open win does give a little more life to Sato's 2020 Olympic hope. Her chances to make it are better than Shibata's since Sato played in the WTTC. However, this is only the a challenge series. What's more important are the results in the China, HK and Japan Open for these next 3 weeks, which are really going to move the needle in this race. The long wait is over, and I'm excited to see who seizes the opportunity.

Update for the China Open: the draws for the preliminary rounds are out.
Hayata likely has to go through China's Gu Yuting to make it to the main draw. This should be a good test for her, and we'll see if she can pass through it.
 
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Hayata has no luck ....:(If not yet allowed to play in Hong Kong ....:(
Kato will qualify without problems .....
 
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To qualify Kato Will have to defeat Hayata or gu yuting So not that easy

Why?
Kato nr.64 in preliminary round ...
preliminary round 1 - bye...
preliminary round 2 - play with nr.61 Tailakova..
last, third preliminary round - with Balazova - Nakamori/Wang Yi-Ju....


Qualification - only three preliminary rounds .....
Hayata in the third preliminary round, meets with GU Yting ....
 
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Why?
Kato nr.64 in preliminary round ...
preliminary round 1 - bye...
preliminary round 2 - play with nr.61 Tailakova..
last, third preliminary round - with Balazova - Nakamori/Wang Yi-Ju....


Qualification - only three preliminary rounds .....
Hayata in the third preliminary round, meets with GU Yting ....

Yes you are right, anyway if she is to play olympics beating Gu Yuting is first step to prove it.
 
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Very sorry for Hina Hayata .....
The fall of the rating continues, by the end of the year there are practically no chances to enter the TOP-20 ....:(
 
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With Ishikawa's loss to CXT, she doesn't have enough points for the top 15. Only Ito & Hirano are going to the first T2 Diamond event.

Thank you for this update! Will be posting the full updates for the World Rankings and WT Standings for the T2 event when the China Open concludes. Qualifying for the T2 Diamond event is huge for Ito and Hirano in their Race to the Tokyo Olympics since the points earned in T2 events don't count towards the 8 maximum events quota in determining World Ranking. It helps them even more than Ishikawa didn't qualify and doesn't have a chance to gain extra world ranking points.

Ito probably needed this the most to make up for her non-participation in the World Cup. Even better for her is that she's likely going to be seeded in the Top 8 in the T2 Diamond event, so she'll avoid the top Chinese players in the first round who are currently dominating the top 8 of the world tour standings, which gives her a better chance of reaching the QF and earning more points. The only way she'll not be seeded in the Top 8 is if Ito loses against Ding Ning tomorrow, and both Cheng I-Ching and Chen Xingtong pull of some surprises and advance to the SF of the China Open.
 
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With Ishikawa's loss to CXT, she doesn't have enough points for the top 15. Only Ito & Hirano are going to the first T2 Diamond event.

xHKaDp7.jpg
 
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Kong Kong Open...
Limit - 200
Draw for first Stage - 2/6...

I can not understand, will Hina Hayata play WS? She is still on the waiting list .....
Will she play XD with Harimoto?
 
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So, Hina Hayata is not allowed to WS .... She will only play in XD along with Harimoto .....
(The chances of raising the rating, already small, have become scanty ....)
 
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This month, Hayata is announced to Japan Open, in July to Korea Open. Perhaps, it will be announced to Australia Open ....
Given her low rating, only qualifications .....Unfortunately, the chances of winning the qualifiers are close to zero ....China...:(
 
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Standings after the China Open
JNT Standings May 2019 China.jpg

The China Open was a breakthrough for Ito as she progressed 2 rounds further than her other Japanese teammates and also qualified for the T2 Diamond event. While she's 3rd the the race currently, she only has 4 events while her other teammates have 5 or more, so she's in a good spot now.

Next up is the Hong Kong Open. Here are my thoughts:
Hayata's the only one from the above list not allowed to play in HK since the competition manager of this tournament seems to be very strict in enforcing the maximum 6 players per national association rule. It's a shame because the quality of opponents in this open isn't as high as those in other opens, so she would have had a better chance in this tournament as compared to other tournaments. Unless she makes major breakthroughs in the second half of this year, she's likely eyeing the 3rd Olympic spot for the team event.

One way she can get that spot is by doing well with Harimoto in Mixed Doubles. The man and woman of the XD team must each come from 3-player team of the JNT's Men's and Women's team respectively. That's why the Iskikawa-Yoshimura and Morizono-Ito pairs have been put on hold for the moment. JTTA probably doesn't see either Yoshimura or Morizono overtaking Harimoto, Niwa and Mizutani to make the Olympic team, so it has to form a mixed doubles team using one of either Harimoto, Niwa or Mizutani as the male player. The fact that JTTA is sending Hayata to partner with Harimoto in mixed doubles shows that it is seriously considering sending Hayata to the Olympics despite her lower WR. Now, it's up to her to show that her partnership with Harimoto can be more viable than an Ishikawa/Harimoto or Niwa/Ito pairing.
 
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This month, Hayata is announced to Japan Open, in July to Korea Open. Perhaps, it will be announced to Australia Open ....
Given her low rating, only qualifications .....Unfortunately, the chances of winning the qualifiers are close to zero ....China...:(

If she can't beat the qualifiers then she doesn't deserve to go to the Olympics. Simple as that. She definitely has the ability to win the qualifiers though. But she seems to be lacking mental strength.
 
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Great analysis. Hayata getting the nod for doubles is indeed noteworthy. To me, the race to Tokyo is split into 2 categories right now. The race to Singles which realistically occurs between Mima-Miu-Ishikawa and the fight for the 3rd team spot.

Seeing how there are no other womens doubles combinations between Sato, Kato and Shibata with the 3 main players, it's almost safe to rule them out. The 3 Olympic berths will essentially be between Ishikawa, Hirano, Mima and Hayata.

In case Ishikawa or Hirano do not make it into Singles, their spot could be in jeopardy, too.
 
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