Japan Women's Race to Tokyo 2020 Singles

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I will root for Odo Satsuki ....:)

(Can you add old points deducted after a year)?

I bet you were also rooting for Kihara in the Croatia Open Final. Haha.

As for adding old points from last year, I purposely did not include 2018 events in computing ranking points since those points will all expire anyway by Jan. 2019, so they will be irrelevant in the Race to the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.

Maybe I will make a separate spreadsheet to compute predicted World Rankings that includes both old and new points, but the algorithm will be much more complicated given that point deductions will also have to be factored in. No promises, but I'll think about it towards the later part of the year if seeding for the last few events of 2019 becomes an important factor in predicting the Tokyo Olympic Race.
 
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You are right ... I really rooted for Kihara .....:)
Regarding the table you compiled ....First, many thanks ....I personally find it interesting .....I liked this topic in general .....:)
 
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The Diamond tier events will be vital for Ito. She's in the lead right now on the World Tour Standing, the top 15 of which will be invited.

At this rate, Ishikawa, Ito, and Hirano will go. Looking really grim for Hayata.
 
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The table is only relevant for singles tho, i.e. top 2. The third spot will go to a good team player (doubles player) and hirano doesn't have a convincing pairing with Ishikawa. Ito-hirano doubles disbanded a long time ago, too. So Hayata could slip in through the back door although that will mean 2 Olympic misses back to back for Hirano (P-card for rio 2016).
 
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The table is only relevant for singles tho, i.e. top 2. The third spot will go to a good team player (doubles player) and hirano doesn't have a convincing pairing with Ishikawa. Ito-hirano doubles disbanded a long time ago, too. So Hayata could slip in through the back door although that will mean 2 Olympic misses back to back for Hirano (P-card for rio 2016).

If Hayata doesn't make it to the singles competition based on World ranking, then she's probably hoping that Ishikawa and Ito take the 2 singles slots. If Hirano, Kato, or another JNT player manages to take the singles slot from Ito or Ishikawa, it's much tougher seeing JTTA selecting Hayata over Ishikawa or Ito as the 3rd player as compared to selecting Hayata over Hirano, Kato or the rest of the JNT players based on all their performances to date.

Of course, a lot can change until January 2019, and nobody knows how well all the JNT players will be performing 6 months from now, but if nothing major changes with regard to World Ranking and player performance in the next 6 months, this will be Hayata's next best scenario at a chance at an Olympic spot aside from a direct qualification through World Rankings.
 
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The Diamond tier events will be vital for Ito. She's in the lead right now on the World Tour Standing, the top 15 of which will be invited.

At this rate, Ishikawa, Ito, and Hirano will go. Looking really grim for Hayata.


JTTA recently published preliminary list of participants Korea Open and Australian Open.Hina Hayata is not on the lists ...
Perhaps later included in the team ....

And in addition ....Hong Kong Open-Hina Hayata is in the composition, but on the waiting list .....Perhaps she will remain on the waiting list ....However, both in Hong Kong and in Japan Open she needs to pass the qualification .....With the Chinese women already declared, the probability that Hina Hayata will qualify is close to zero, unfortunately .....
 
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My opinion is possibly wrong ....
Ito and Ishikawa may be able to stay in the TOP-10 ITTF rating for January 2020 ...At 8-9-10 place .....Hirano-perhaps 11-12 place ....
Hayata may take 15-20 place only a miracle .....Not because the level of the game is low ....She just does not have time ...Challenger tournaments will not save ...And in the rest she needs to play qualifications.In the presence of Chinese women, even the second or third national team to pass almost no chance .....
 
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My opinion is possibly wrong ....
Ito and Ishikawa may be able to stay in the TOP-10 ITTF rating for January 2020 ...At 8-9-10 place .....Hirano-perhaps 11-12 place ....
Hayata may take 15-20 place only a miracle .....Not because the level of the game is low ....She just does not have time ...Challenger tournaments will not save ...And in the rest she needs to play qualifications.In the presence of Chinese women, even the second or third national team to pass almost no chance .....

I do not understand something. If she is to be the Woman who win Gold medal next year in Tokio, then she shouldn't have any problems with wining china open now. Earning points in small tournaments where chinese do not play does not show her skills to beat them.
 
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Hayata has a chance at a medal in Tokyo, but only in the WD .....WS-excluded .....

So sorry, but there is no WD event in Olympics, just the first game in Team, for 1 point. Playing Ito-Hayata in Doubles slot automatically puts Ishikawa as player A/X, playing 2 singles, and Hayata will have to play a game in singles too. With China going full force in the Olympics, the chances of JNT scoring 3:0 (doubles +1, Ishikawa +1, Ito +1, is unrealistic, so Hayata will have to play the best China has to offer.
All 2018 points are moot as they won’t count in January 2020 for the decision, except the Team WTTC 2018, except for seeding purposes for the balance of the year. In this Ito is at a disadvantage because Ishikawa & Hirano still get to play the Singles World Cup. She’ll have to be very CONSISTENT for the rest of the upcoming tournaments, or hope Ishikawa blows a game (or 2) like in Qatar and the WTTC, or Hirano pulls a zombie in a major tournament as usual.
There is an extra predicament for JNT - who to assign to play and who gets benched in the Team World Cup in Nov at Tokyo, as those points will count for the January 2020 decision.
Miyasaki has already touched on the prospect of Hayata lately. While acknowledging her potential, specially when teamed with Ito, she is too far down near the bottom of the ladder, and would have to leapfrog closer to the top 5 to have any meaningful expectations.
Personally, I think with Ishikawa in there, Japan has a very good chance of beating all others to the Final, but also because she’s there, will not win gold, not against China. I think for Japan to have any real chance of taking the team medal, it is necessary to send in assassins, one time surprise strikers, much like Hirano in 2017, Ito in Sweden in 2018. If the chance is slim with Ishikawa’s phobia, then Japan has nothing to loose anyway by sending in Ito, Hirano and Hayata.
 
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Very interesting question!
I really do not know if there are any restrictions from the ITTF to participate in the Olympic Games in a case like Hamamoto-Austria?
 
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Hayata turns 19 in July. Is there any chance she pulls a Hamamoto for 2020 prospects away from JNT before then?

No. It is rare for first national team prospects to defect and Hayata is a first national team prospect. Yamamoto was too far down the list. Maybe if she was 30.
 
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Coaches of the national team of Japan have a difficult choice .....

It is very interesting whether Hina Hyata will be included in the participants of these two tournaments:
ITTF Women’s World Cup, Chengdu (CHN): 18-20 Oct
ITTF Team World Cup, Tokyo (JPN): 6-10 Nov

By this time, her ITTF rating is unlikely to be above 30 ....
 
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Coaches of the national team of Japan have a difficult choice .....

It is very interesting whether Hina Hyata will be included in the participants of these two tournaments:
ITTF Women’s World Cup, Chengdu (CHN): 18-20 Oct
ITTF Team World Cup, Tokyo (JPN): 6-10 Nov

By this time, her ITTF rating is unlikely to be above 30 ....
Not for Oct at Chengdu, one must go through the Asian Cup and be in the top 6 to be invited. Because of this, not even Ito gets to play, very deserving and unfortunate indeed. This will change next year, as the top 2 ranked goes to Asian Cup. Hirano gets to go 3 times by strength of her win as Asian Champion in 2017, opportunities which she squandered.
As for Nov, I can see JNT goes by ranking. But even then, to be one of the 5 in team doesn't mean one gets to play. Look at Hirano getting benched the whole last Team World Cup, not even playing once.
 
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