JTTA: Selection System to be Revamped for Paris 2024

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Given the seeding was based on the July 2021 ranking for Tokyo 2020 (with the June 2021 one used for qualification by world ranking), if the same thing holds for Paris 2024, Hirano still has 8 to 9 chances to replace 6 of her low points, so her situation is less dire than it looks. If anything, she has more potential to gain points. The 400 pts from WTT CT Zagreb 2023 will also expire on 7/2, which means another time for her to step up when it matters.

OTOH, SYB will lose 280 pts from WTT CT Tunis 2023 on 6/25, so she is facing a lot of pressure as well (1410 pts). Given her trajectory in this cycle, it's pretty obvious her body is not the type that can endure this kind of intensity. She is ranked 4th in Olympic qualification ranking right now as a result of careful planning. There is still a lot of uncertainty.

3
7-17 Singapore Smash 2024
27-31 WTT CS Incheon 2024

4
15-21 World Cup 2024

5
1-11 Saudi Smash 2024
20-26 WTT CT Taiyuan 2024
20-26 WTT CT Rio de Janeiro 2024

6
3-9 WTT CT Zagreb 2024
11-16 WTT SCT Ljubljana 2024
17-23 WTT CT Lagos 2024
24-30 WTT CT Tunis 2024

7
2-7 WTT SCT Bangkok 2024
26-11 Paris 2024

https://www.ittf.com/tournament/2909/tokyo-2020-olympic-games/
https://www.ittf.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/20210429_Tokyo2020_RQS_TT_en.pdf
https://www.ittf.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Tokyo_2020_Table_Tennis_Sport_Specific_FINAL.pdf

https://www.ittf.com/tournament/2603/paris-2024-olympic-games/
https://stillmed.olympics.com/media/Documents/Olympic-Games/Paris-2024/Paris2024-QS-Table-Tennis.pdf
Shin Yubin is just the current #4, not the only person that Hirano needs to leapfrog. CiC. Han Ying, Adriana Diaz,and Bernie amongst others are also playing well and Hirano won't get any major continental boost either. Hirano is as capable of success as she is of failure with these things.
 
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CIC, Diaz, Szocs, YXX et. al. all face the same pressure as SYB in saving their positions, and they will have to face Hayata, Ito, Harimoto and perhaps even Kihara. It will come down to the draw. HY won't be back at least until World Cup 2024, so she is out of the equation and will consider herself lucky to be able to make it in time for Paris 2024.

Given the poor luck of Tasei and Oh Kwanghun at WTTC 2024, Watanabe could be the biggest obstacle to Hirano. The big question now is whether JNT will make use of team order when the poor draw of WTT CS Frankfurt 2023 happens again.
 
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CIC, Diaz, Szocs, YXX et. al. all face the same pressure as SYB in saving their positions, and they will have to face Hayata, Ito, Harimoto and perhaps even Kihara. It will come down to the draw. HY won't be back at least until World Cup 2024, so she is out of the equation and will consider herself lucky to be able to make it in time for Paris 2024.

Given the poor luck of Tasei and Oh Kwanghun at WTTC 2024, Watanabe could be the biggest obstacle to Hirano. The big question now is whether JNT will make use of team order when the poor draw of WTT CS Frankfurt 2023 happens again.
I don't think they all have the same pressures and some even have continental advantages. Hirano really has to perform. She can't just show up on her schedule if she wants to avoid China. CiC is in good form.
 
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Congrats to Yokoi for not only beating Hirano 3-1, but also winning the 1 game victory match over Kihara.

Also, congrats Yokoi's teammate, Honoka Hashimoto, who beat Zhang Rui 3-0. Hashimoto also beat Adriana Diaz 3-1 and 1-0 (victory match) earlier in the season. Amazing player.
Hashimoto is the chopper right?
 
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I don't think they all have the same pressures and some even have continental advantages. Hirano really has to perform. She can't just show up on her schedule if she wants to avoid China. CiC is in good form.
As DHK said at the end of 2022 (12/08/2022 at 7:20am), she didn't handle her mindset well after reaching her new high of WR7. Therefore, those with "mismatched" continental points would be under higher pressure, especially when coupled with the lower seeded players in WTT events.

Also, don't forget that PDR has been suspended for WTT CT (only 3 from Top 20) and SCT (only 6 from Top 20) until Paris 2024. Except for WTT Nominations, the LOC can't play the favoritism card now, so manipulation of the player list and in turn the draw will be reduced to a minimum, and Murphy's law will take it from there.

https://std.stheadline.com/realtime/article/1826887/即時-體育-乒乓球-克服世界排名壓力-杜凱琹衝擊亞運獎牌
去年東京奧運乒乓球女團銅牌成員杜凱琹,近月女單世界排名一度升上職業生涯新高的第七位。不過,她周四坦言世界排名創新高反而倍感壓力,需調整心態迎九月杭州亞運,才能衝擊獎牌。

二十五歲的杜凱琹年初世界排名一度升至第七,但上月在多項世界乒聯賽事表現未如理想,排名也跌至第八。她解釋:「我未經歷過世界排名升至第七這麼高,心內充滿壓力,打法變得保守,未來需專注於自身打法,而非看重排名。」
 
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Yokoi is really at playing Hirano it seems lol
More proof that Hayata and Hirano held back in league matches. IIRC, Yokoi came close but never beat Hayata and Hirano in the selection trials. Poor Ito, for losing at Zennihon Takkyu 2023.

Hirano has lost only 3 times this season and all to Yokoi. OTOH, Yokoi's win rate is still ugly but she has beaten Hayata, Hirano, Harimoto, and Kihara. Ugly win rate for Odo as well but somehow she managed to finish just 1 spot above Yokoi in the Road to Paris.

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/fo...-be-revamped-for-paris-2024.24977/post-438126
https://tleague.jp/ranking/index.php?gender=2&year=2023
https://tleague.jp/ranking/player.php?player=30078&year=2023
https://tleague.jp/ranking/player.php?player=30075&year=2023

Anyhow, Hayata is more concerning. Thank table tennis god WTTC 2022 didn't repeat.

【Tリーグ】日本生命、4連勝でプレーオフへと勢い 早田ひなは体調不良でイベント中止
https://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2024/03/03/kiji/20240303s00026000222000c.html
 女子のレギュラーシーズンは1位が平野美宇、張本美和らを擁する神奈川で確定し、2位に日本生命、3位に日本ペイントが続く。23日の準決勝で、まずは日本生命と日本ペイントが対戦。勝者が決勝で神奈川と対戦する。

 この日、試合前にパリ五輪代表に決まり世界選手権団体戦でも活躍した早田ひな(日本生命)のお祝いセレモニーが開催される予定だったが、早田の体調不良によって中止となった。

 試合後、取材に応じた村上恭和総監督は、プレーオフでの早田や伊藤美誠(スターツ)の起用について「出る予定で、スケジュール的には出られる予定だが、今日のように体調ですね。連戦、連戦ですから、それは前日にならないと分からない」と話した。
In the women's regular season, Kanagawa, which has Hirano Miu and Harimoto Miwa, is in 1st place, followed by Nippon Life in 2nd place and Nippon Paint in 3rd place. In the semifinal on the 23rd, Nippon Life and Nippon Paint will face off. The winner will face Kanagawa in the final.

On this day, before the match, a celebration ceremony was scheduled to be held for Hayata Hina (Nippon Life), who was selected to represent at the Paris Olympics and also played an active role in the team event of the WTTC, but it was canceled due to Hayata's poor health.

After the match, general manager Murakami Yasukazu responded to an interview regarding the use of Hayata and Ito Mima (Starts) in the playoffs, saying, "They are scheduled to play, and according to their schedule they are expected to play, but their body condition could be off like today. It's a series of consecutive matches, so you won't know until the day before."
 
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Yokoi is really at playing Hirano it seems lol
Yokoi needs to take her game on tour and see what happens.
As DHK said at the end of 2022 (12/08/2022 at 7:20am), she didn't handle her mindset well after reaching her new high of WR7. Therefore, those with "mismatched" continental points would be under higher pressure, especially when coupled with the lower seeded players in WTT events.

Also, don't forget that PDR has been suspended for WTT CT (only 3 from Top 20) and SCT (only 6 from Top 20) until Paris 2024. Except for WTT Nominations, the LOC can't play the favoritism card now, so manipulation of the player list and in turn the draw will be reduced to a minimum, and Murphy's law will take it from there.
None of them have mismatched continental points. All of them are fully capable of maintaining their rankings. DHK will also be on the return path for sure, good luck to anyone who has to play her in her current form.
 
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Yokio can be very competitive domestically. Wonder when will she be given the opportunity to compete in a WTT event? Or will she ever? (Aka is she always going to be their target practice drilling partner only?)
 
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It's easy to tell.

2024WK9 w/o continental points:
10 HY 1620-90+15=1545
11 Diaz 1600-500+55=1155
12 Szocs 1565-500+90=1155
13 YXX 1450-350+90=1190
18 Mittelham 1347-175+70=1242
19 YJN 1190-500+15=705
21 Takahashi 1002-500+15=517
31 Samara 660-175+25=510
32 Pavade 647-90+55=612
33 Lily Zhang 635-175+10=470
34 Amy Wang 559-500+0=59 (6 applicable out of 8 events)

H2H is another way to look at it. For example, it could be argued that Szocs won European Games 2023 with the help of Samara because of the draw. In the same way, it could be argued that Diaz won Pan-Am Games 2023 with the help of Zhang Mo because of the draw.

HY 6 H2H 1 Szocs (last 1 in 2023 going to HY)
HY 4 H2H 4 Samara (last 1 in 2023 going to Samara)
HY 2 H2H 2 YXX (last 2 in 2019 and 2023 going to YXX)
YXX 4 H2H 0 Samara (last 2 in 2023)
Diaz 7 H2H 5 Amy (last 2 in 2023 going to Amy)
Lily 2 H2H 1 Amy (last 1 in 2022 going to Amy)
Zhang Mo 3 H2H 1 Amy (last 1 in 2024 going to Amy)
Takahashi 7 H2H 3 Amy (last 1 in 2024 going to Takahashi)
Takahashi 10 H2H 16 Diaz (last 3, 1 in 2021 and 2 in 2023 going to Diaz)
 
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says Shoo...nothing to see here. - zeio
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Hirano keeps on stealing the spotlight from Hayata. KONNO Noboru at Table Tennis Kingdom has decided to write an entry for the exclusive interview that will be published in the next volume.

中国に勝ち、世界卓球で全勝。10日間で変貌した中国戦での平野美宇は何者だったのか
https://world-tt.com/blog/news/archives/167252

王者が強化本部会議を開いて対策を検討…早田ひな&平野美宇は「パリ五輪で中国を圧倒」する!
https://friday.kodansha.co.jp/article/361496
 
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It's easy to tell.

2024WK9 w/o continental points:
10 HY 1620-90+15=1545
11 Diaz 1600-500+55=1155
12 Szocs 1565-500+90=1155
13 YXX 1450-350+90=1190
18 Mittelham 1347-175+70=1242
19 YJN 1190-500+15=705
21 Takahashi 1002-500+15=517
31 Samara 660-175+25=510
32 Pavade 647-90+55=612
33 Lily Zhang 635-175+10=470
34 Amy Wang 559-500+0=59 (6 applicable out of 8 events)

H2H is another way to look at it. For example, it could be argued that Szocs won European Games 2023 with the help of Samara because of the draw. In the same way, it could be argued that Diaz won Pan-Am Games 2023 with the help of Zhang Mo because of the draw.

HY 6 H2H 1 Szocs (last 1 in 2023 going to HY)
HY 4 H2H 4 Samara (last 1 in 2023 going to Samara)
HY 2 H2H 2 YXX (last 2 in 2019 and 2023 going to YXX)
YXX 4 H2H 0 Samara (last 2 in 2023)
Diaz 7 H2H 5 Amy (last 2 in 2023 going to Amy)
Lily 2 H2H 1 Amy (last 1 in 2022 going to Amy)
Zhang Mo 3 H2H 1 Amy (last 1 in 2024 going to Amy)
Takahashi 7 H2H 3 Amy (last 1 in 2024 going to Takahashi)
Takahashi 10 H2H 16 Diaz (last 3, 1 in 2021 and 2 in 2023 going to Diaz)
I struggle to see what is easy to tell even after reading this multiple times. Ranking aside, all these ladies have results that show that are all capable of being hot (just like Hirano) and capable of beating anyone on any given day when their form is right. For example, it is easy to forget that Szocs's win against Han Ying (HY) came in the teams event of the same European Games in which she won Singles gold, so it is not hard to see her beating HY herself in that particular event. She played really well.

Since losing to Yokoi in the league is evidence that Hirano doesn't take the league seriously, let's just hope that she truly has the power to turn it on and off at will. If so, all will be well. If not, she had better hope the draw works out for her or that she can beat the CNT at will. And a reminder, none of CIC, DHK, BS, AD, SY etc are pushovers, even if they are not CNT and are overrated because of some continental boost or the other.
 
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An article on Hirano Table Tennis Club. Posting the whole thing since it's behind a paywall.

https://mainichi.jp/articles/20240304/dde/041/050/017000c
美宇の思い、共にスマッシュ 平野選手の母、卓球教室 年齢・性別・障害関係なく70人 山梨
夕刊社会
毎日新聞 2024/3/4 東京夕刊 有料記事 1675文字

zJiWJtK.jpg

センターで練習に励む生徒たち=山梨県中央市で2月9日

 韓国・釜山で行われた卓球世界選手権団体戦で女子は王者・中国を最後まで脅かした。今夏のパリ・オリンピックの女子シングルス代表に決まった平野美宇選手(23)=木下グループ=が育った山梨県中央市の卓球教室「平野卓球センター」を訪ねると、後輩たちが元気よく練習に励んでいた。

 「バック! ミドル! フォア! だいぶ、うまくなってきたね!」。卓球台6台が並ぶ教室に、監督の平野真理子さん(55)の明るい声が響いていた。高校2年の石原壮一郎さん(17)は「先生は、接しやすい雰囲気があります」と慕う。

 真理子さんは美宇選手の母。出身地の静岡で約10年務めた教員を退職し、2003年に夫・光正さん(55)の実家を間借りして卓球教室を始めた。「めいとその友達の3人ぐらいからスタートしたんですよ」。すると3歳になったばかりの美宇選手は「卓球がやりたい」と自分から言い出した。「初めてのおねだりでした。自分の感情を表に出すことのない、穏やかな子でしたから」

 生徒は口コミで増えて手狭になり、歩いて10分ほどの現在地に05年新築した。教室を出て10メートルも歩けば、富士山が大きく見える。現在は、85歳の男性から5歳の女児まで生徒は約70人へと増えた。

 「個人でこれだけの建物を建てて、山梨で食べていくのはかなり難しい」と真理子さんは明かす。全国の卓球場の多くは卓球用具を売る店舗を併設し、東京や大阪などの都会では「子育てを終えた世代を対象に1時間いくらで個人レッスンをして」経営を安定させているというが、「山梨で個人レッスンを希望する人は少ない。うちの場合は夫が卓球じゃない仕事をしているから。ここを建てた借金も、生徒が増えるまでは夫の給料で返していました」。ローンは今も返済中だそうだ。

 夫は筑波大卓球部の同級生で、4年時はともに男女の主将を務めた。夫は大学卒業後、医大に入り直して内科医になった。美宇選手は中学1年から日本オリンピック委員会(JOC)のエリートアカデミーに入るために上京。夫は18年から都内の病院に移り、身近で選手生活を支えている。

VeVImoo.jpg

平野美宇選手を応援する平野卓球センターの生徒たちと平野真理子さん(中列右端)=山梨県中央市で2月9日

 「美宇が巣立った後も後輩たちが入ってくれて、うちのチームは山梨で選手登録数が一番多いんです」。午前中は大人、夕方から夜は小中高生が通う。小学5年の望月悠生(ゆうせい)さん(11)は「ずっと勝てなかった人に勝つと、楽しい」。全国大会に出場経験がある小学5年の田中新菜(にいな)さん(11)は「決勝トーナメント進出を目指す」と意気込む。

 新型コロナウイルス禍の約3年間は試練だった。個人レッスン希望者だけに絞り、卓球の球は軽くて風の影響を受けやすいにもかかわらず、換気のため窓を開放した。「収入もガクッと下がりました。夫の仕事がなければ夜逃げでしたね」と笑い飛ばす。コロナ禍が明けた今でも窓を開け、消毒に気を配る。

 「年齢や性別、障害の有無に関係なく、一緒に卓球を楽しむ場にしたい」。養護学校(現・特別支援学校)にも3年勤務した真理子さんの願いだ。生徒のうち約10人には、障害がある。美宇選手の妹で三女の亜子さん(19)も軽度の発達障害があるが大学に通い、夜間に練習する。今年1月の全日本選手権に一般の部で初出場し、女子シングルスで2勝した。真理子さんは同選手権1勝の夫を引き合いに「亜子も父親を超えましたね」と笑顔だ。

 知的障害のクラスでパリ・パラリンピックを目指す原一さん(27)は自身の練習拠点に加えてこの教室にも通う。原さんが昨年の冬、月6回もラーメンを食べたと聞き、真理子さんは「アスリートの体づくりとして、それはだめだよ」と諭した。毎回の食事を写真に撮ってLINE(ライン)で送るように言うと「ちゃんとできているからもう大丈夫」と真理子さんが伝えるまで半年間送り続けた。

 教室のユニホームは山梨らしく、巨峰とシャインマスカットがあしらわれた柄で、真理子さんがデザインした。小学2年の渡辺文乃(ふみの)さん(8)は「五輪に出る美宇ちゃんをテレビで応援したい」と先輩の雄姿を心待ちにする。【早川健人】
 
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A Tieba thread on the potential matchups for Singapore Smash 2024. The mod's comment about the unseeded players getting upset is also what I'm thinking.
大满贯赛签表分析
https://tieba.baidu.com/p/8921784956?pid=149887289563&cid=0#149887289563

Tieba users on SYB's false WR...
朱女确认单打世界杯 现在一定是鱼女最害怕
https://tieba.baidu.com/p/8921136362?pid=149884861525&cid=0#149884861525
世界杯动漫有可能冲出来吗
https://tieba.baidu.com/p/8917225211?pid=149869235860&cid=0#149869235860
棒子变阵,小申三单
https://tieba.baidu.com/p/8905676241
 
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So Ito asked Watanabe what she should do for WTTC 2024 and Watanabe's modesty gave rise to Coach Ito and Mascot Watanabe...

Japanese women cornered China in world table tennis. What does Director Watanabe mean when he says, ``I was actually happy to be called Director Ito''
https://world-tt.com/blog/news/archives/167783
Mima Ito's visible presence on the bench and director Takehiro Watanabe's invisible presence
https://world-tt.com/blog/news/archives/166213
Those articles are fairly poisonous to Watanabe.
 
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There are 10 chances left now.

https://www.ittf.com/2024/03/04/seven-teams-secure-final-spots-for-paris-2024-olympics-team-events/
With the final lineup now complete, the roster for the Paris 2024 Olympics promises an unparalleled spectacle. Here are all the teams aiming for Olympic gold. Players will be seeded using the ITTF Table Tennis World Rankings published in July 2024. ITTF World Rankings published on 16 July 2024 be used for the seeding of Olympic events.

Given the seeding was based on the July 2021 ranking for Tokyo 2020 (with the June 2021 one used for qualification by world ranking), if the same thing holds for Paris 2024, Hirano still has 8 to 9 chances to replace 6 of her low points, so her situation is less dire than it looks. If anything, she has more potential to gain points. The 400 pts from WTT CT Zagreb 2023 will also expire on 7/2, which means another time for her to step up when it matters.

OTOH, SYB will lose 280 pts from WTT CT Tunis 2023 on 6/25, so she is facing a lot of pressure as well (1410 pts). Given her trajectory in this cycle, it's pretty obvious her body is not the type that can endure this kind of intensity. She is ranked 4th in Olympic qualification ranking right now as a result of careful planning. There is still a lot of uncertainty.

3
7-17 Singapore Smash 2024
27-31 WTT CS Incheon 2024

4
15-21 World Cup 2024

5
1-11 Saudi Smash 2024
20-26 WTT CT Taiyuan 2024
20-26 WTT CT Rio de Janeiro 2024

6
3-9 WTT CT Zagreb 2024
11-16 WTT SCT Ljubljana 2024
17-23 WTT CT Lagos 2024
24-30 WTT CT Tunis 2024

7
2-7 WTT SCT Bangkok 2024
26-11 Paris 2024

https://www.ittf.com/tournament/2909/tokyo-2020-olympic-games/
https://www.ittf.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/20210429_Tokyo2020_RQS_TT_en.pdf
https://www.ittf.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Tokyo_2020_Table_Tennis_Sport_Specific_FINAL.pdf

https://www.ittf.com/tournament/2603/paris-2024-olympic-games/
https://stillmed.olympics.com/media/Documents/Olympic-Games/Paris-2024/Paris2024-QS-Table-Tennis.pdf
 
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