Paris Olympic Games 2024

[zeio]

I think she's weakest in the Olympic context. Her technical skills may have surpassed Hirano but based on her post match interview where she said she felt 'nothing but relief' it seems that she still can't handle the pressure. My feeling is that Hirano and Hayata would have at least found a way to make that match against Kaufmann competitive.

As I noted in the thought experiment with NextLevel, Harimoto was an unknown (not equivalent to weakest but a volatile variable) because of that match with DHK at WTTC 2024, and between Hayata and Hirano, the latter was still the more reliable player given the history of the former. That mentality was well reflected in the 5ch comments after Harimoto got creamed, and you could literally feel the folks there were in panic when they realized ONCE AGAIN Hirano was the only one they could rely on and how Hayata's selfishness led the team to that situation.

For Kaufmann, Hayata, notwithstanding her injury, would have a harder time than Hirano because of you-know-the-word. Hayata's record against lefties was not that good in her junior days. Look up their H2Hs with JJH, despite the same number of wins and losses, Hirano's losses were always close.

https://web.archive.org/web/2024012...3043416426&w=3VVHb863ae50cMcFBrWyn563dBYXp3v2

Hirano 0-1 -> 3-1 -> 4-2 Kaufmann
Harder than expected. Hirano turned to the shovel backspin serve and played tried-and-tested 防反/defense-counter after losing more in the topspin rallies and Kaufmann couldn't read that well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgoEpsAQOaM

 

[pongfugrasshopper]

As I noted in the thought experiment with NextLevel, Harimoto was an unknown (not equivalent to weakest but a volatile variable) because of that match with DHK at WTTC 2024, and between Hayata and Hirano, the latter was still the more reliable player given the history of the former. That mentality was well reflected in the 5ch comments after Harimoto got creamed, and you could literally feel the folks there were in panic when they realized ONCE AGAIN Hirano was the only one they could rely on and how Hayata's selfishness led the team to that situation.

For Kaufmann, Hayata, notwithstanding her injury, would have a harder time than Hirano because of you-know-the-word. Hayata's record against lefties was not that good in her junior days. Look up their H2Hs with JJH, despite the same number of wins and losses, Hirano's losses were always close.

https://web.archive.org/web/20240129145017/https://cc.bingj.com/cache.aspx?q=http://mytabletennis.net/forum/wttc-finals-2023-5-2028_topic92895_page2.html&d=4759653043416426&w=3VVHb863ae50cMcFBrWyn563dBYXp3v2


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgoEpsAQOaM

Both Hirano and Hayata have 5-2 records vs. JJH. Last time JJH beat Hayata was 2019 Bulgaria Open. Last time JJH beat Hirano was last year 2023 Asian Games. If you want to use a proxy for a lefty, instead of JJH, how about using European lefty Pavade as a proxy. Pavade *recently* beat Hirano 3-0 at 2024 Star Contender Ljubljana and lost to Hayata 4-0 in the very same tournament.

I guess I have to take your posts throwing shade at Hayata as comedic relief.

 

[NetProphet]

If only this was the most illegal serve throughout the entire Olympics

Do you call out people for serves in your local league?

 

[Innco Gong]

By the way, reserve team members also get a medal, right like Liang Jingkun?

nope…only if the reserve team member present in the match; in Tokyo Olympics, LSW replaced by WMY, and she didn’t get that medal.

 

[travelt123]

View attachment 31429View attachment 31430View attachment 31431

I mean during matches not post matches after winning.

 

[Innco Gong]

*3

 

[zeio]

In the latest interview, DHK reveals that in addition to the golfer's elbow, she is also suffering from dystonia, the same medical condition that affects Soo Wai Yam Minnie. She thought about retiring at the end of 2023. After finishing this Olympics, she suggested to the team that they looked for a lefty partner for WCT to make it easier for him.

巴黎奧運直擊-8月9日賽事(第一部份)
https://youtu.be/68O83oBxzMs?t=12394
https://youtu.be/68O83oBxzMs?t=12227 (start of interview)

 

[NextLevel]

I’ve heard both that they get the medal and that they only get it if they play at least a match. Which one is it? Chat gpt says they get the medal regardless of playing any at all btw

It is possible that the treatment of reserve players has changed over time.

 

[dingyibvs]

nope…only if the reserve team member present in the match; in Tokyo Olympics, LSW replaced by WMY, and she didn’t get that medal.

That's because LSW was no longer on the team once she's injured and unable to play. She was not downgraded to reserve status but had to leave the team to allow WMY to enter.

 

[dingyibvs]

Due to the dominance of the Chinese, I think what's been overlooked a bit is that the men actually got pretty unlucky this tournament. It started with the draw, particularly WCQ's. As the #1 seed he drew the #39 seed Yang Wang as his first round opponent, which is pretty high for a Ro64 opponent. For the second round he could face anywhere from the #17 seed down to #67/qualifier, and he drew the #19 seed Moregard. The only 2 seeds higher than Moregard are Kallberg at #18 and Groth at #17, and even before the Olympics few can argue that they'd rather play Moregard than Kallberg or Groth. In the entire 17< seed field I can only see #31 Noshad Alamiyan with similar giant-slaying possibility as Moregard, with Kallberg just behind. If he had faced say #32 seed Pucar instead, and then #16 seed in the Ro16 who is Assar, then he IMO would've had 2 relatively easy games to get over his broken racket.

For the men's team they drew Korea in the quarterfinals, which at least on paper was arguably the hardest quarterfinals opponent. It wouldn't have even been arguable IMO if Korea brought LSS instead of CDS for whatever reason. Then you get into the actual games, my goodness the amount of lucky edges and nets France had against China, particularly in the 2 singles matches. It was wild how uneven it was. The TT Karma was certainly not very instantaneous there!

 

[NextLevel]

Due to the dominance of the Chinese, I think what's been overlooked a bit is that the men actually got pretty unlucky this tournament. It started with the draw, particularly WCQ's. As the #1 seed he drew the #39 seed Yang Wang as his first round opponent, which is pretty high for a Ro64 opponent. For the second round he could face anywhere from the #17 seed down to #67/qualifier, and he drew the #19 seed Moregard. The only 2 seeds higher than Moregard are Kallberg at #18 and Groth at #17, and even before the Olympics few can argue that they'd rather play Moregard than Kallberg or Groth. In the entire 17< seed field I can only see #31 Noshad Alamiyan with similar giant-slaying possibility as Moregard, with Kallberg just behind. If he had faced say #32 seed Pucar instead, and then #16 seed in the Ro16 who is Assar, then he IMO would've had 2 relatively easy games to get over his broken racket.

For the men's team they drew Korea in the quarterfinals, which at least on paper was arguably the hardest quarterfinals opponent. It wouldn't have even been arguable IMO if Korea brought LSS instead of CDS for whatever reason. Then you get into the actual games, my goodness the amount of lucky edges and nets France had against China, particularly in the 2 singles matches. It was wild how uneven it was. The TT Karma was certainly not very instantaneous there!

Just a month or two ago, people were saying Moregardh had no future as a CNT challenger and his game was capped. Now we get the narrative that he was an unfortunate opponent for WCQ who had never lost a single game to him before the Olympics. Hindsight is 20-20 for sure.

 

[driversbeat]

Due to the dominance of the Chinese, I think what's been overlooked a bit is that the men actually got pretty unlucky this tournament. It started with the draw, particularly WCQ's. As the #1 seed he drew the #39 seed Yang Wang as his first round opponent, which is pretty high for a Ro64 opponent. For the second round he could face anywhere from the #17 seed down to #67/qualifier, and he drew the #19 seed Moregard. The only 2 seeds higher than Moregard are Kallberg at #18 and Groth at #17, and even before the Olympics few can argue that they'd rather play Moregard than Kallberg or Groth. In the entire 17< seed field I can only see #31 Noshad Alamiyan with similar giant-slaying possibility as Moregard, with Kallberg just behind. If he had faced say #32 seed Pucar instead, and then #16 seed in the Ro16 who is Assar, then he IMO would've had 2 relatively easy games to get over his broken racket.

For the men's team they drew Korea in the quarterfinals, which at least on paper was arguably the hardest quarterfinals opponent. It wouldn't have even been arguable IMO if Korea brought LSS instead of CDS for whatever reason. Then you get into the actual games, my goodness the amount of lucky edges and nets France had against China, particularly in the 2 singles matches. It was wild how uneven it was. The TT Karma was certainly not very instantaneous there!

I think Korea and all those who drew China in MS feel a lot more unlucky than the other way round. Tomo beat the MS silver medalist and had matchpoints against the MS bronze medalist so he definitely deserved to be in the Top 4 to fight for a medal. If anything he's the unluckiest this Olympics.

 

[Janard]

I’ve heard both that they get the medal and that they only get it if they play at least a match. Which one is it? Chat gpt says they get the medal regardless of playing any at all btw

Just based on the photos, reserves get no medals, at least if they didn't play.

 

[NextLevel]

View attachment 31436
Just based on the photos, reserves get no medals, at least if they didn't play.

It is good form to put them on the podium even if the dumb policy is maintained.

 

[NextLevel]

I think Korea and all those who drew China in MS feel a lot more unlucky than the other way round. Tomo beat the MS silver medalist and had matchpoints against the MS bronze medalist so he definitely deserved to be in the Top 4 to fight for a medal. If anything he's the unluckiest this Olympics.

Seeding matters. The bronze medalist earned and defended his seeding. The silver medalist beat the #1 seed and then continued on the path of the number 1 seed to the final (there was no guaranteehe would do this). The 2nd and 4th seeds earned and defended their seeds. That Harimoto did not get a luckier draw in a 50% chance is unfortunate but it just reminds us that seeding matters and hopefully Harimoto will fix his prior to the next two WTTCs and Olympics.

 

[dingyibvs]

Just a month or two ago, people were saying Moregardh had no future as a CNT challenger and his game was capped. Now we get the narrative that he was an unfortunate opponent for WCQ who had never lost a single game to him before the Olympics. Hindsight is 20-20 for sure.

Those 2 narratives are not in conflict. He's a very, very good player whose game is capped and has a questionable future as a CNT challenger...provided the said CNT member didn't have his racket broken the night before. If WCQ had drawn Kallberg in the Ro32, I would've figured it a tough draw for example, but like everyone else wouldn't have thought much of it as I'd still expect WCQ to win fairly handily...provided he didn't break his racket the night before. Hindsight is indeed helpful here as no one would've cared to added the broken racket qualifier before the Olympics. When that happened, suddenly the tough draw actually mattered.

Without his defeat of WCQ he would've had 4-1 and 3-2 losses to FZD, which is par for the course for him against the CNT, specifically FZD (his previous 2 matches against FZD were 4-2 and 3-1 losses). Against other top non-Chinese players he would've beaten Calderano and who else? Kao, Assar, Lind, Boll, and Shinnozuka? And then a loss to Harimoto. If Moregard had entered 2 WTT tournaments and I told you his best win in them were Calderano and his run in each tournament was ended by Harimoto and FZD respectively, would it have been a surprising result?

A breakthrough tournament that changes perception is something Annett Kaufmann had, with repeated breakthrough performances, thumping Lily, Batra, Akula, and Miwa. Moregard had one upset with an asterisk, and otherwise performed well but nothing spectacular. This also doesn't change the fact that he's a tough draw for any top seed in a Ro 32.

 

[driversbeat]

H

Those 2 narratives are not in conflict. He's a very, very good player whose game is capped and has a questionable future as a CNT challenger...provided the said CNT member didn't have his racket broken the night before. If WCQ had drawn Kallberg in the Ro32, I would've figured it a tough draw for example, but like everyone else wouldn't have thought much of it as I'd still expect WCQ to win fairly handily...provided he didn't break his racket the night before. Hindsight is indeed helpful here as no one would've cared to added the broken racket qualifier before the Olympics. When that happened, suddenly the tough draw actually mattered.

Without his defeat of WCQ he would've had 4-1 and 3-2 losses to FZD, which is par for the course for him against the CNT, specifically FZD (his previous 2 matches against FZD were 4-2 and 3-1 losses). Against other top non-Chinese players he would've beaten Calderano and who else? Kao, Assar, Lind, Boll, and Shinnozuka? And then a loss to Harimoto. If Moregard had entered 2 WTT tournaments and I told you his best win in them were Calderano and his run in each tournament was ended by Harimoto and FZD respectively, would it have been a surprising result?

A breakthrough tournament that changes perception is something Annett Kaufmann had, with repeated breakthrough performances, thumping Lily, Batra, Akula, and Miwa. Moregard had one upset with an asterisk, and otherwise performed well but nothing spectacular. This also doesn't change the fact that he's a tough draw for any top seed in a Ro 32.

Hey hey, give some credit to Rachel Sung. Besides Batra, she's the only other one who took a game off superKaufmann.

 

[dingyibvs]

You know this whole time I had confused SXN with Fu Yu. I kept thinking SXN has a solid chance at winning her games because she's in good form and had beaten Jeon Jihee 4-0 earlier in the tournament. 🥴

 

[driversbeat]

You know this whole time I had confused SXN with Fu Yu. I kept thinking SXN has a solid chance at winning her games because she's in good form and had beaten Jeon Jihee 4-0 earlier in the tournament. 🥴

Shan Xiaona is a bit too old to play aggressively with penhold short pips. If she adopted a style similar to Gao Jun she might have more success.

 

[Dr Evil]

Those 2 narratives are not in conflict. He's a very, very good player whose game is capped and has a questionable future as a CNT challenger... Moregard had one upset with an asterisk, and otherwise performed well but nothing spectacular.

So you haven't noticed his clear and continuing improvement on the backhand side? And better fitness. Seems quicker also especially covering wide forehand. Not to mention he's only 22. And you seriously think his game is capped?