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Shin Yubin is just the current #4, not the only person that Hirano needs to leapfrog. CiC. Han Ying, Adriana Diaz,and Bernie amongst others are also playing well and Hirano won't get any major continental boost either. Hirano is as capable of success as she is of failure with these things.Given the seeding was based on the July 2021 ranking for Tokyo 2020 (with the June 2021 one used for qualification by world ranking), if the same thing holds for Paris 2024, Hirano still has 8 to 9 chances to replace 6 of her low points, so her situation is less dire than it looks. If anything, she has more potential to gain points. The 400 pts from WTT CT Zagreb 2023 will also expire on 7/2, which means another time for her to step up when it matters.
OTOH, SYB will lose 280 pts from WTT CT Tunis 2023 on 6/25, so she is facing a lot of pressure as well (1410 pts). Given her trajectory in this cycle, it's pretty obvious her body is not the type that can endure this kind of intensity. She is ranked 4th in Olympic qualification ranking right now as a result of careful planning. There is still a lot of uncertainty.
3
7-17 Singapore Smash 2024
27-31 WTT CS Incheon 2024
4
15-21 World Cup 2024
5
1-11 Saudi Smash 2024
20-26 WTT CT Taiyuan 2024
20-26 WTT CT Rio de Janeiro 2024
6
3-9 WTT CT Zagreb 2024
11-16 WTT SCT Ljubljana 2024
17-23 WTT CT Lagos 2024
24-30 WTT CT Tunis 2024
7
2-7 WTT SCT Bangkok 2024
26-11 Paris 2024
https://www.ittf.com/tournament/2909/tokyo-2020-olympic-games/
https://www.ittf.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/20210429_Tokyo2020_RQS_TT_en.pdf
https://www.ittf.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Tokyo_2020_Table_Tennis_Sport_Specific_FINAL.pdf
https://www.ittf.com/tournament/2603/paris-2024-olympic-games/
https://stillmed.olympics.com/media/Documents/Olympic-Games/Paris-2024/Paris2024-QS-Table-Tennis.pdf