Next Level has been downplaying this from the start. On various previous threads he cited Dr Scott Atlas, and a pair of Fox doctors who made claims that would have been embarrassing to anyone actually in the business of science or clinical trials -- and of course arguing about the effectiveness of masks, in spite of mountains of different types of studies and recommendations of nearly all real public health experts. He clearly has no idea of how biomedical science or clinical trials are done and he is certainly not able to evaluate the studies he does find.
I do this for a living.
For sure 3,000 deaths/day is awful -- we've reached that recently and we'll be at that for awhile. Here though I want to emphasize that deaths are not the whole story. Short of that there are very well documented chronic complications in a certain percentage of Covid-19 survivors. Estimates vary a lot because different laboratory measurements vary in specifities and power to discern problems, but that German study I cited is scary because of number of different ways they evaluated their patients.
I would suggest to all of you that there are lots of places where TT right now is a risky activity. Hopefully it won't stay that way for long. I want to play.
Baal has repeatedly performed character assassination of anyone who disagrees with him. I do not remember ever citing Scott Atlas on this forum because I had stopped discussing Covid19 on TT forums well before Scott Atlas became a lightning rod for covid19 debate. So the fact that Baal associates me with Scott Atlas is clearly something ideologically motivated. Definitely not based in any facts.
No one wants to get covid19 (if you know someone who does, let me know). Just as no one wants to get a bad case of influenza, or get in a car accident etc. And anyone who falls seriously sick from covid19 (or any influenza-like illness) usually has a compromised immune system in a variety of ways already. Any such person should work hard to avoid getting *any* respiratory disease. Here is a 2018 paper (linked to by the CDC) showing that influenza( and to a lesser degree, influenza-like illness of just about any kind) raises your risk of a heart attack by 6 times. Does the risk go away after you recover from influenza?
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1702090?query=featured_home
Usually, after a serious illness, most people need to recover. And if you are doing the same things that got your body sick before you fell sick, it is unlikely you will recover. As someone who has autoimmune and possibly viral issues (Lyme's), I don't think they should be downplayed. But people should be given information in away that enables them to understand risks. So if you are someone who thinks that covid19 is going to make you very sick and you feel you know how to avoid it based on what Baal has written, then avoid it by all means. And since no one wants to get covid19, the question is how to advise people so that they can live their lives meaningfully while accounting for the risks of covid19.
My problem is not so much that I think covid19 should be "downplayed". I think that the current approach to covid19 has affected a lot of things in society that are very important, and there hasn't been a serious analysis of the costs and benefits of the interventions currently being forced on many cities which have hurt many people and will lead to many deaths from causes other than covid19. The focus on covid19 is often myopic. *Some* of these interventions are based on data/science that over time will be revealed to be questionable.
The biggest issue most clearly is the way we treat and view children, many of whom have (depending on what state you are in) not been able to attend in-person classes or visit public playgrounds. IF anyone believes that science explains why Disneyland is closed but Disneyworld is open, I am yet to hear it. Or why schools can be open in Scandinavian countries and England and closed in the USA. No, it is not covid19. It is what you prioritized in response to covid19.
In everything, it is best to always let the expert communicate their views, but to always question them. My superpower is that I am the least ideological person I know because I always have a commitment to yield to the evidence and to make sure my skepticism is adequate to the evidence.
TT is a risky activity for some people - for some people, it is a likely a low risk activity. But you don't have that choice because most TT clubs in many places are closed, including mine in Philadelphia. Since Baal thinks that his assessment of risk is such that it should govern how everyone should be treated, it would be wise for all of us to be sure that it is founded in the best science and be experimentally demonstrated. He is a good guy, but this is not about good and bad people. At least for me it isn't. It's about making sure that risks are communicated in a way that informs decision making and not scaring people per se into doing what you want them to do. Because the road to tyranny is paved with good intentions.
I repeat no one wants to catch covid19.
If he had written something like:
"Covid19 has a serious effect on circulation which seemed in one study to affect as many as 78% of people who had it for 2 weeks. While this risk has been known to exist with other respiratory illnesses prior to covid19, it seems more severe with covid19, and is just another reason not to want an serious illness. Continue with your protective measuires."
It begins to place things in context. It is unfortunate that he just wants to demonize people who have good reason to discuss issues with covid19 data.