There seems a CNT crisis recently when a lot of CNT players including the most formidable ones ML, FZD, XX, namely WR #1, 2, 3, lost to non-CNT players more than once. And two questions are heavily discussed, first, is this a sign of the decline of CNT dominance and can non-CNT players keep beating CNT players? Second, what are the reasons for their losses, a bad day, dismiss of LGL and change in the management structure, change of ball/racket, etc.?
Here are my two cents.
(1) What is CNT dominance? Unbeatable by non-CNT players? NO, NO, NO. ML was unbeatable by non-CNT players in 2013(35 matches) /2014(28)/2015(22)/2016(40), FZD unbeatable in 2015(44 matches)/2016(26), XX unbeatable in 2013(50 matches)/2014(35); in earlier or later years, they DID lost to non-CNT players. ZJK was NEVER unbeatable by non-CNT players in any given year, even at his prime; but that's not unusual, Wang Liqin, Ma Lin and Wang Hao were NEVER unbeatable by non-CNT players too at their prime, though the non-CNT rivals back then may be tougher if you argue. Therefore, the unbeatable ML, FZD, XX in certain years are only outliers.
IMO, CNT dominance means winning champions in singles and team events in Olympic Games, WTTC, World Cup, ITTF platinum tours and Grand Finals, and major continental tournaments, when TOP CNT players attend. There is no guarantee when other Team A or B players were sent out for ITTF Tours. This year, CNT lost the titles of Asian Championships women's singles, men's World Cup and German Open men's singles. That means CNT dominance is really getting challenged. However, the threat from Miu Hirano seems gone now. And Timo Boll and Dimitrij Ovtcharov are always top-tier rivals of CNT. Lee Sangsu, Koki Niwa, Chen Chien-An, Tiago Apolonia, etc are second-tier rivals. Really no new face to add to the blacklist.
(2) What are the reasons for the recent losses of CNT players especially top guns? Of course we can say there are many factors, bad form/injuries/coach change/equipment change which all add up. I do not think dismiss of LGL as head coach is the key factor. In Asian Championships this April, Miu Hirano beat DN, ZYL and CM in a row; ML lost to Jeong Sangeun and XX lost to Koki Niwa. LGL was still head coach by then and he coached the match of ML vs Jeong Sangeun without his magic working. CNT attributed the losses of both men's and women's team to the underestimated ball change to Nittaku ABS (they used different ABS balls in training). And in closing training for WTTC, they worked on the issues accordingly and got satisfactory results in 2017 WTTC in late May. After the dismiss of LGL and boycott in China Open in late June, CNT men's team canceled Austrian Open. Thus no more DHS 40+ in training as the players went back to their provincial teams to prepare for the National Games with 729 seamless ball. I don't know if CTTA or CNT or the organizers of National Games are to blame; but it is NOT the players' fault. They have to play and fight hard at National Games for their provincial teams and they have to practice with seamless balls which are totally different from DHS 40+ used in international tournament. Some people argue that in a match both players play the same ball; the change of ball should affect them equally. But as a matter of fact, the ball change, to be specific, reduced spin and faster speed, affects players of different style differently. What CNT players and coaches have complained recently is that the ball has negative effects on CNT players at the moment and positive effects on certain non-CNT players who excel in power or speed. CNT players will adapt to the new ball sooner or later, with the cost of more body-building, or more injuries, or change of blades. Of course, each player may have his/her own issues like injuries or adaptation to new coach. But since many CNT players, of different play styles and strengths, senior or young, with the same coach or new coach, complained about the reduced spin of DHS 40+ as well 729 seamless and DHS double-colored ball used in CTTSL, there are really problems of ball change - while there are always solutions.
