Men's World Cup 2016

[Jonathan_]

Predictions for the rest of the tournament:

FZD - JYS 4:2
Karlsson - Gauzy 4:3
Lee Sangsu - WCT 4:2
XX - Gerell 4:0

FZD - Karlsson 4:1
XX - Lee Sangsu 4:1

FZD - XX 4:1

Close enough.


Some thoughts:

Fan Zhendong is the most technically sound player on the planet, and that should remain the case for the next 6-7 years if not more. Not to say he is necessarily the best yet, as Ma Long could still have the edge because of mental and tactical aspects, but FZD's combination of serve, technique, touch, wrist action, footwork, speed and coordination are better than anyone else's, by a noticeable distance.


As well as Xu Xin plays sometimes and even though he would comfortably take care of any non-Chinese player 9 times out of 10, he continues to prove he lacks something that makes the other big 3 categorically stronger than him (at least if you take ZJK from a couple of years back). I think his weakness is his inability to stay close to the table while staying aggresive at the same time. He is just a fraction too slow.
I believe it's highly unlikely at this point that XX will ever become world or Olympic champion.


Kristian Karlsson will become one of the 2-3 best players in Europe very soon. He is not quite there as of today, but his style of play is already the most effective against the Chinese among all European players. He had a lot of success in this world cup thanks to surprise long serves and inside out forehand flicks, which the competition will eventually learn to expect. His decision making needs some work, but he is technically and mentally all there and is definitely one of the players to look out for.


Going back to pure technical ability, I believe Jeoung Young Sik has set the bar on a new level outside of China. Even Jun Mizutani, who is arguably the best non-Chinese player in the world and has more consistent results that JYS currently, would not be able to handle some of the rallies that JYS was producing with Ma Long and Fan Zhendong recently. His speed and control over the ball is something out of the ordinary.


Something bad is happening to Tiago Apolonia. I dunno if he said anything about it, could be personal life or simply lack of confidence. I imagine he will spend the next few matches as #3 for Saarbrücken.

 

[Takkyu_wa_inochi]

Hey Jonathan
i think you nailed it perfectly. FZD is just too good in all aspects of the game. some tactical or mental flaws ? I think its past now... MA Long was very lucky FZD was not playing singles in Rio, else i think he would not have reached Gold.

Regarding Karlsson, yes I think he's one of the best promising European players. Along with Gauzy he's a credible candidate to be European Champion someday, but still he is several classes below the Chinese and even the other top Asian players.

I like very much watch JYS play, he's very agressive and spectacular. I think his BH matches the speed and spin of Chinese, but his consistency is slightly below the Chinese, and from both wings he lacks (relatively) power. Just look at the difference of athleticism between him and any Chinese player and you know that's something that probably won't change. So i don't think he can rise to the top.

Mizutani on the other hand, was also lacking power until now, but i think he passed a new level in the Olympics, and could be a real threat to the Chinese in the future. Because in the short and touch game, in the serve/receive game, i think he evens them already, his lack of power was really the no1 problem and he worked a lot to fill the gap.

Else; it looks like Ovtcharov alas will never see again his 2012 form, i think he already peaked and his opponents adapted to his game. and it will be tough for Samsonov to have motivation to play more after this Olympic Tournament and missing his chance to get a medal. I am afraid both Boll and Samsonov will retire very soon.

 

[Jonathan_]

Gauzy will likely be successful on the continental stage, but as far as challenging the Chinese, he and Karlsson have very different 'ceilings'.

Gauzy's style is as European as they get - Very slow, centered around the backhand and gets far from the table often. He makes up for the flaws with touch and consistent technique but this style of play has proven extremely inefficient against players from China (and actually 90% of Asia in general).

There is a pattern of similar styles among many up and coming European talents, and I think it's a reason to be concerned. European table tennis has become one dimensional, and until a new Timo Boll emerges, there is little hope for a decent challenge to China. Right now the closest thing is Kristian Karlsson.

 

[Takkyu_wa_inochi]

well... i think we can forget about any European challenge to China, unless ZJK or XX take a Luxembourg or a Monaco passport...

 

[Xylit]

European table tennis has become one dimensional, and until a new Timo Boll emerges, there is little hope for a decent challenge to China. Right now the closest thing is Kristian Karlsson.

I can't imagine a scenario where Karlsson beats a CNT player. Ovtcharov and Samsonov are still the two guys with the highest chances I think. And even they have no realistic chance

 

[NextLevel]

I can't imagine a scenario where Karlsson beats a CNT player. Ovtcharov and Samsonov are still the two guys with the highest chances I think. And even they have no realistic chance

Maybe not the top 4 but there are still the Fang Bos and Yan Ans of the world. And it is really more about how much one improves.

The thing is that you need someone with the physical talent and drive of Ovtcharov, but with more technically sound strokes and footwork from youth. Those things do not hang on trees. Karlsson likely has the drive but the physical strength, we shall see.

 

[izra]

Fan Zhendong is the most technically sound player on the planet, and that should remain the case for the next 6-7 years if not more. Not to say he is necessarily the best yet, as Ma Long could still have the edge because of mental and tactical aspects, but FZD's combination of serve, technique, touch, wrist action, footwork, speed and coordination are better than anyone else's, by a noticeable distance.

not sure i agree. i see his style as highly dependent on his explosive physical fitness. as young as he is i believe he will retire before ma long, following the footsteps of liu guozheng.

 

[Xylit]

Maybe not the top 4 but there are still the Fang Bos and Yan Ans of the world.

Being able to beat the Fang Bos and Yan Ans only won't win you any major titles nor does that issue a decent challenge to China.

 

[anchorschmidt]

I was really impressed by both swedish players. Excellent Service and receive game. Karlsson needs perhaps a bit more experience to hold his own against the Chinese when he can't get an advantage in his short-game. He also had a great attitude.

 

[Michal_Z]

Some thoughts:

Fan Zhendong is the most technically sound player on the planet, and that should remain the case for the next 6-7 years if not more. Not to say he is necessarily the best yet, as Ma Long could still have the edge because of mental and tactical aspects, but FZD's combination of serve, technique, touch, wrist action, footwork, speed and coordination are better than anyone else's, by a noticeable distance.


As well as Xu Xin plays sometimes and even though he would comfortably take care of any non-Chinese player 9 times out of 10, he continues to prove he lacks something that makes the other big 3 categorically stronger than him (at least if you take ZJK from a couple of years back). I think his weakness is his inability to stay close to the table while staying aggresive at the same time. He is just a fraction too slow.
I believe it's highly unlikely at this point that XX will ever become world or Olympic champion.

Fan would have absolutely NONE chance against Ma Long in the OG..
He was just so ready for everything there, noone could beat him!
When it gets really tough, Ma Long will beat Fan. Now you have to understand, that CNT doesnt give a sh*t about some freaking pro tours.. they just dont care, its kinda like training for them.
As for Xu Xin - he only won games from Fan when he didnt step around and played RPB.
Without that he has no chance against any CNT player.

 

[UpSideDownCarl]

not sure i agree. i see his style as highly dependent on his explosive physical fitness. as young as he is i believe he will retire before ma long, following the footsteps of liu guozheng.

I get the point, but this:

"....as young as he is i believe he will retire before ma long....."

well, as a bit of an overstatement, I guess it makes the point. But I am pretty confident Ma Long will keep playing for a while and will retire when there are enough young guns on the CNT who prove themselves to phase ML out the way they phased out Ma Lin and Wang Liqin. My guess is, FZD will be about ML's age at that point and still going decently strong. XX may be phased out before ML, but I doubt FZD will.


Sent from the Subterranean Workshop by Telepathy

 

[NextLevel]

I was really impressed by both swedish players. Excellent Service and receive game. Karlsson needs perhaps a bit more experience to hold his own against the Chinese when he can't get an advantage in his short-game. He also had a great attitude.

No accident they are both lefties. Not sure all those serves are what they appear to be...

 

[NextLevel]

Being able to beat the Fang Bos and Yan Ans only won't win you any major titles nor does that issue a decent challenge to China.

IT can get you into the semi-finals of the WTTC and that still counts for something.

 

[The Omega Man]

Is amazing how this 19yo kid is dominating everybody consistently and clearly and still some people think he's not such a big deal nor there yet, Ma Long wished he played like this when he was 19yo, FZD will be world number 1 and for a long long time probably starting as soon and next year. I've been watching TT and playing TT since the mid 80's and I have never seen something like this, a guy with such ferocity, strength and at the same time finesse and timing to land un-returnable shots, lol at people thinking he's not there yet.

 

[izra]

Is amazing how this 19yo kid is dominating everybody consistently and clearly and still some people think he's not such a big deal nor there yet, Ma Long wished he played like this when he was 19yo, FZD will be world number 1 and for a long long time probably starting as soon and next year. I've been watching TT and playing TT since the mid 80's and I have never seen something like this, a guy with such ferocity, strength and at the same time finesse and timing to land un-returnable shots, lol at people thinking he's not there yet.

who are these people who think FZD is not such a big deal and when you say "not there yet" where exactly is "there"?

 

[Tryzerlol]

He is definitely there in terms of his current performance and the fashion in which he dominates anyone out of his own team and to a certain extend even those three. What I think most people refer to when they say he's not quite there yet is the fact that indeed he is just 19, and I really doubt he has reached his peak yet. I also think that in about 2-3 years, his game will look even more ferocious, stronger, and more confident.

All of this obviously requires him to stay injure-free, and unfortunately a very physical approach like his can be really demanding.

 

[Dan]

a lot of occasions of new selfies for Dan, isn't it ?

Had to get one!

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[Michal_Z]

He is definitely there in terms of his current performance and the fashion in which he dominates anyone out of his own team and to a certain extend even those three. What I think most people refer to when they say he's not quite there yet is the fact that indeed he is just 19, and I really doubt he has reached his peak yet. I also think that in about 2-3 years, his game will look even more ferocious, stronger, and more confident.

All of this obviously requires him to stay injure-free, and unfortunately a very physical approach like his can be really demanding.

I can agree with that. Also he has overweight, that can everyone see clearly.
So I expect him to have some health trouble pretty soon.
And that can stop him pretty bad.
He is young, though, so he can probably recover quickly, but you never know..
One fall and he is done..

 

[Tryzerlol]

One fall and he is done..

Eh, I think it's gonna take more than that
I guess that's the advantage of being "slightly overweight", the damping is pretty good!

 

[Boogar]

I can agree with that. Also he has overweight, that can everyone see clearly.
So I expect him to have some health trouble pretty soon.
And that can stop him pretty bad.
He is young, though, so he can probably recover quickly, but you never know..
One fall and he is done..

I disagree... as if you could play Table tennis like this if you are overweight. That's just how his body is built.
And i think it gives him a great advantage.