WTT Star Contender Doha 2024

says Shoo...nothing to see here. - zeio
says Shoo...nothing to see here. - zeio
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You talk like it hasn't happened before. Hayata lost 2-3 once in 2023 and the score for the final game was the same, with SYS getting 2 nets as well, but Hayata was up 3:0 at the start.

WTT SCT Ljubljana 2023 QF Hayata 2-3 SYS (7, -7, -6, 5, -9)

It's ridiculous to put it down to luck at this point. She has lost to SYS 11 times before this, 7 times in 2023 alone. Luck doesn't work that way. Even Hayata said she felt frustrated that she wasn't able to do it even though she should have been able to do so after 2-3 CM at WTT Finals Women Nagoya 2023.

To this day, Hayata has defeated only 2 (make that 3 if you want) core CNT players. Hirano has defeated 5 (DN, CM, ZYL, WYD and SYS), 2 of which for the first time in 2023 alone. Ito has defeated 7 (DN, LSW, ZYL, WMY, SYS, WYD and CXT), but 0 in this Olympic cycle. Even though Hirano has the lowest number of wins against any CNT players, she has been able to score 4 of those 5 first-ever wins against the core CNT players when it meant winning all the way, something that even Ito couldn't manage. If not for Ito's WR advantage, the point gap between her and Hirano would've been much greater than 34.5 pts and the race would've been over for her.

外协00后 VS 国乒 女乒篇(截至2023.10.08)
https://www.douban.com/group/topic/267660684
Portugal Open 2019 R16 Hayata 4-2 LSW
WTTC 2023 QF Hayata 4-3 WYD
Asian Games 2022 SF Hayata 4-3 WYD

Once again, luck doesn't work that way.
https://youtu.be/LYr50MDGdvc?t=2215

Both SYS and Hirano had a few nets in G7 at WTT CT Zagreb 2023 and still Hirano won by a 5-point margin.
http://mytabletennis.net/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=91479&PID=1142944

Hirano had tons of nets and edges in G5 and still CM came out on top at Asian Games 2022.
http://mytabletennis.net/forum/foru...&title=asian-games-2022-2023-9-2310-8#1145017

Hayata had tons of nets and edges and still SYS won G4 at ATTC 2023.
http://mytabletennis.net/forum/foru...450&title=attc-2023-pyeongchang-9-310#1144450

Luck does work that way actually. With only 11 iterations, results like that are possible even if odds are close to 50/50. People have lost 11 straight hands of blackjack where odds are pretty much 50%.

Of course, Hayata vs SYS isn't 50/50. I'd say it's closer to 80/20. But we're talking about the best female player in the world and generational talent. If she can get to the 5th game and be a couple points away from winning, it's absurd to say that Hayata doesn't have at least the possibility of getting a win, even if the odds are heavily against her.

It's easy to create convenient narratives with results. But that's just putting an ex-post facto overlay on them. In the end, it will come down to variance and implied probabilities. The skill differential can put one player in a much better position to ultimately win, but variance is a factor in every sport (e.g. a lucky bounce off the net, a tipped pass resulting in an interception, a punch that lands flush on the chin).

Here, it's inarguable that variance played a big role in the 5th game, which in turn was the deciding game. If you're arguing that somehow these two females operate outside the laws of probability and variance, then good luck with that. Whatever personal failings or lack of focus she suffers from, nothing about her character influenced the fact that the entire result could've been flipped by two balls being a millimeter or two high enough on the net cord.
 
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FZD forfeit the last game due to injuries, hence losing 2-3 to LSD. It's really unfortunate. Does anyone know the extent of his injuries?
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Matsushima is going to have his ups and downs being still only 16. But beating Harimoto and then playing pretty even vs. LYJ is a good way to start off the year. Definitely worth keeping an eye on him!
Harimoto "best non-Chinese" isn't even the best player on his national squad. "100 year talent".

But but but he beat FZD.

It DOES NOT MATTER if you can beat FZD on a good day. To win a tournament, you MUST win 5 matches in a row against all your opponents. Harimoto consistently loses to rank 30's and 40's, and that's why he dropped out of the top 10 this year.
 
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Sun Yingsha looking more like a world number one today: she has increased her arm and wrist strength, so hitting bigger shots than before. I still don't think there's a lot between the top five Chinese women, with a sixth (Qian Tianyi) now threatening to join the party. The most intriguing match was Hina Hayata's battle royale with SYS. At present it's mainly the Japanese women who can pose any threat to the Chinese stars. Can they close the gap any further?
 
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Luck does work that way actually. With only 11 iterations, results like that are possible even if odds are close to 50/50. People have lost 11 straight hands of blackjack where odds are pretty much 50%.

Of course, Hayata vs SYS isn't 50/50. I'd say it's closer to 80/20. But we're talking about the best female player in the world and generational talent. If she can get to the 5th game and be a couple points away from winning, it's absurd to say that Hayata doesn't have at least the possibility of getting a win, even if the odds are heavily against her.

It's easy to create convenient narratives with results. But that's just putting an ex-post facto overlay on them. In the end, it will come down to variance and implied probabilities. The skill differential can put one player in a much better position to ultimately win, but variance is a factor in every sport (e.g. a lucky bounce off the net, a tipped pass resulting in an interception, a punch that lands flush on the chin).

Here, it's inarguable that variance played a big role in the 5th game, which in turn was the deciding game. If you're arguing that somehow these two females operate outside the laws of probability and variance, then good luck with that. Whatever personal failings or lack of focus she suffers from, nothing about her character influenced the fact that the entire result could've been flipped by two balls being a millimeter or two high enough on the net cord.
The difference between winning 11-9 and losing 9-11 is huge. There's a reason why Hayata could beat her teammates and WYD in deciders but not against SYS or CM. In fact if you observe most close matches the better player wins more often than not, whether it's because they were more decisive, played smarter, or simply held their nerve better than their opponent.
 
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SYS 3-2 Hayata (13, -8, 7, -7, 9)

Last chance to earn 10 extra pts, get her first win and Hayata failed (once again). Gave up on the XD and still couldn't win. I've run out of excuses here.

Wins over top 3 CNT players b/w 2023/1/30-2024/1/21:
25 pts Hirano
R32 3-2 WYD, Singapore Smash 2023
F 4-3 SYS, WTT CT Zagreb 2023
15 pts Hayata
QF 4-3 WYD, WTTC 2023
Hayata showed some bright sign, her rally ability has gone up, looks like she has deviated from the japanese counter-topspin style to opt for more full swing stroke, which increase her spin and power. Maybe this is the "technical change" she talked about.

Now for what could've been done better, at set 5 she uses the long serve to exploit SYS backhand. Ma Lin pick up on this and after calling TO, SYS right away hit a bh winner on Hayata serve. At 7-9 Hina tried the long serve once more, she should have used a shorter serve to develop from it. SYS was already anticipating it and once again a bh winner.

In short, I think Hayata lost this time was due to her wrong tactical choice
 
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Harimoto "best non-Chinese" isn't even the best player on his national squad. "100 year talent".

But but but he beat FZD.

It DOES NOT MATTER if you can beat FZD on a good day. To win a tournament, you MUST win 5 matches in a row against all your opponents. Harimoto consistently loses to rank 30's and 40's, and that's why he dropped out of the top 10 this year.
I hope you're not implying that Matsushima is a better player than Tomo are you? At least not yet. Also, keep in mind they are compatriots and will have greater exposure to each other's styles. You can make a case for Togami if you're talking about recent form, but career wise it's not even close.

True... you need to win at least 5 matches in a row to win the tournament. But in WTT tournaments where the top Chinese show up, it's extremely rare to find one where the winner was not on the CNT (kudos to LYJ !!!). Tomo is currently ranked #10, but even when he did drop out of the top 10, you cannot be a top 15 player and *consistently* lose to players ranked in the 30s/40s. It does happen and makes headlines, but I wouldn't blow things out of proportion. I'm not denying he's had his struggles (which is not necessarily a bad thing), but context matters.
 
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I hope you're not implying that Matsushima is a better player than Tomo are you? At least not yet. Also, keep in mind they are compatriots and will have greater exposure to each other's styles. You can make a case for Togami if you're talking about recent form, but career wise it's not even close.

True... you need to win at least 5 matches in a row to win the tournament. But in WTT tournaments where the top Chinese show up, it's extremely rare to find one where the winner was not on the CNT (kudos to LYJ !!!). Tomo is currently ranked #10, but even when he did drop out of the top 10, you cannot be a top 15 player and *consistently* lose to players ranked in the 30s/40s. It does happen and makes headlines, but I wouldn't blow things out of proportion. I'm not denying he's had his struggles (which is not necessarily a bad thing), but context matters.
At a certain point, replying to TensorBackhand is more a luxury than a necessity, his one track approach to argument ignoring facts that don't suit his narrative is well documented. Lin Yun Ju almost lost to Sora ad well, Sora is clearly a good player but Harimoto is clearly the Japanese #1, even if Togami has a case based on some recent matches
 
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At a certain point, replying to TensorBackhand is more a luxury than a necessity, his one track approach to argument ignoring facts that don't suit his narrative is well documented. Lin Yun Ju almost lost to Sora ad well, Sora is clearly a good player but Harimoto is clearly the Japanese #1, even if Togami has a case based on some recent matches
Nice job moving the goal post. You went from "Best non-Chinese" to "Japanese #1".

You are the one ignoring facts, brother.

Fact #1: He was the best 14 year old we have ever seen, but hasn't shown improvement
Fact #2: He was the most hyped up player ever, being labeled as 100 year talent. "100 years" lasted a whole 5 years and now he's being challenged by Matsushima
Fact #3: He was the youngest ever tour champion. If he improved, he would have a lot more titles by now.
Fact #4: He was world rank #2, but dropped out of the top 10 in 2023
Fact #5: The thing that caused #4 is the countless losses to lower ranked players in 2023. Case in point his most recent loss to Matsushima

You can keep hyping him up if you want. But his consistent losses are on the record, those are facts.
 
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And I'm not saying Harimoto isn't a very good player. Obviously he is very good.

I'm saying, he hasn't lived up to his potential. He is not as good as he COULD be if he had improved on his junior days. He hasn't lived up to the title of "100 year talent".

Zion Williamson was hyped as the best player since Lebron James. He was NBA #1 draft pick. Is he a good player? YES! He is excellent player. Is he near Lebron James' level? NO! He is lightyears away from Lebron James.
 
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Nice job moving the goal post. You went from "Best non-Chinese" to "Japanese #1".

You are the one ignoring facts, brother.

Fact #1: He was the best 14 year old we have ever seen, but hasn't shown improvement
Fact #2: He was the most hyped up player ever, being labeled as 100 year talent. "100 years" lasted a whole 5 years and now he's being challenged by Matsushima
Fact #3: He was the youngest ever tour champion. If he improved, he would have a lot more titles by now.
Fact #4: He was world rank #2, but dropped out of the top 10 in 2023
Fact #5: The thing that caused #4 is the countless losses to lower ranked players in 2023. Case in point his most recent loss to Matsushima

You can keep hyping him up if you want. But his consistent losses are on the record, those are facts.
Talented people, assuming they are accurately evaluated whatever that may mean, fail to maximize their talent often and it is not a big deal except to the clever dick hairsplitters who make it a big deal. Morevover, anyone who had tried to seriously improve at table tennis knows that losing while taking risks to get better comes with the territory. Anyone who actually watched the Sora match could see that Harimoto was trying to play even more like a conventional table tennis player and it likely cost him a lot of points.

The main point herr is that you don't know more about what is going on with him than anyone else. You are entitled to your opinions and criticisms as a fan but it gets annoying when you pretend it is a form of expert insight. It is not.
 
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Talented people, assuming they are accurately evaluated whatever that may mean, fail to maximize their talent often and it is not a big deal except to the clever dick hairsplitters who make it a big deal. Morevover, anyone who had tried to seriously improve at table tennis knows that losing while taking risks to get better comes with the territory. Anyone who actually watched the Sora match could see that Harimoto was trying to play even more like a conventional table tennis player and it likely cost him a lot of points.

The main point herr is that you don't know more about what is going on with him than anyone else. You are entitled to your opinions and criticisms as a fan but it gets annoying when you pretend it is a form of expert insight. It is not.
I didn't say its expert insight. It's just a calculated observation.

Obviously Harimoto isn't the first to fail to maximize their talent. That's why I compared him to Zion Williamson.
 
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