WTT Singapore Smash 2024 3/7-3/17

[zeio]

Sample size is relevant in most situations. It's really easy to create narratives with a small number of results. Those narratives just won't be very reliable. Sorry if math gets in the way of your feelings, brother.

Tell that to the CNT the 2 points they dropped against India is too small a sample size and the meetings are a massive overreaction. In your lifetime, how many times have you seen China dropped this many matches at the WTTC? ATTC 2023 and Asian Games 2022 were a warning sign. WYD's record against combination players over her career is ugly. Yeah, small sample size my butt.

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/fo...pionships-finals-busan-2024.32987/post-446902

 

[NextLevel]

And yet you told me Hirano should reflect on why she is in this situation?

I am pointing out the inconsistency in your logic not the supposed ones in mine. If the losses are a small sample size, so are the wins. And she has had the same opportunities as her teammates and chose to focus on internal events, just like Ito did, and to be honest, she was just as mercurial in those as she was in tour events. But she has the responsibility for her ranking. PDR is not an excuse for either Ito or her. If she had played better, her ranking would be better. PDR is not the reason she didn't play more.

 

[zeio]

But she had all the same opportunities as her teammates. It is simply finding special excuses when there is no reason she could not have done what Hayata did.

Same opportunities? 17 vs 11 is the same? What did I post the number of events for?

Facts:
SYS 13 H2H 0 Hayata (12 H2H 0 for Paris 2024 cycle, 2x 3-2)
SYS 4 H2H 1 Hirano (0 H2H 1)
WYD 2 H2H 2 Hayata (2 H2H 2)
WYD 4 H2H 2 Hirano (2 H2H 2)
CM 7 H2H 1 Hayata (4 H2H 1, 3x 3-2)
CM 7 H2H 1 Hirano (3 H2H 0, 1x 4-3 and 1x 3-2)

 

[NextLevel]

Same opportunities? 17 vs 11 is the same? What did I post the number of events for?

Facts:
SYS 13 H2H 0 Hayata (12 H2H 0 for Paris 2024 cycle, 2x 3-2)
SYS 4 H2H 1 Hirano (0 H2H 1)
WYD 2 H2H 2 Hayata (2 H2H 2)
WYD 4 H2H 2 Hirano (2 H2H 2)
CM 7 H2H 1 Hayata (4 H2H 1, 3x 3-2)
CM 7 H2H 1 Hirano (3 H2H 0, 1x 4-3 and 1x 3-2)

The topic was world ranking. The topic was explaining Hirano's seeding. Does anything you are posting address the topic? What is Hirano's responsibility for having a better world ranking? The topic was not Hirano's head to head against first team CNT players in the current cycle.

Thr funny thing is that this all reminds me of Nadal vs Federer head to head. Hayata plays more, gets more focus from the CNT and has worse results playing more especially against SYS and then the argument is that she is lucky to beat Wang Yidi. Hirano beats Wang Yidi then loses to Zhang Rui. Beats SYS in their only meeting (just like Harimoto pushed SYS in her earlier meetings) and it is now part of her Messianic profile. She loses in Asian Games to PKR, well, she just doesn't play enough.

Ultimately choose your narrative. But Hirano's rating is not a result of PDR. It is a result of her results in the tournaments she chose to play in. Blame injury or form or whatever. Not PDR. Let to you, Hayata should have retired by now.

 

[zeio]

I am pointing out the inconsistency in your logic not the supposed ones in mine. If the losses are a small sample size, so are the wins. And she has had the same opportunities as her teammates and chose to focus on internal events, just like Ito did, and to be honest, she was just as mercurial in those as she was in tour events. But she has the responsibility for her ranking. PDR is not an excuse for either Ito or her. If she had played better, her ranking would be better. PDR is not the reason she didn't play more.

Just to set things straight. It's turbozed's argument, which pongfugrasshopper liked and used as counterargument. I'm the one who is using it on you guys here to point out the problem with that logic, which you now feel is not right and have to point out the inconsistency.

Just like the CNR that criticized the CNT's selection system as lazy governance, sample size is lazy argument. If everything is attributed to that, then there is no point in keeping track of past record simply because no table tennis players will ever satisfy the law of large numbers, weak or strong.

 

[zeio]

The topic was world ranking. The topic was explaining Hirano's seeding. Does anything you are posting address the topic? What is Hirano's responsibility for having a better world ranking? The topic was not Hirano's head to head against first team CNT players in the current cycle.

Thr funny thing is that this all reminds me of Nadal vs Federer head to head. Hayata plays more, gets more focus from the CNT and has worse results playing more especially against SYS and then the argument is that she is lucky to beat Wang Yidi. Hirano beats Wang Yidi then loses to Zhang Rui. Beats SYS in their only meeting (just like Harimoto pushed SYS in her earlier meetings) and it is now part of her Messianic profile. She loses in Asian Games to PKR, well, she just doesn't play enough.

Ultimately choose your narrative. But Hirano's rating is not a result of PDR. It is a result of her results in the tournaments she chose to play in. Blame injury or form or whatever. Not PDR. Let to you, Hayata should have retired by now.

And yet you raised Hirano's performance against her teammates? How did she finish 2nd in the selection race? FYI, Hirano is the only one to have beaten both Hayata and Ito in a selection trial.

Hirano beat Hayata 3-2 at WTT CT Zagreb 2022 and reached the final, their first international encounter in this cycle. Come back to me when Harimoto beat Hayata in international competitions.

 

[NextLevel]

Just to set things straight. It's turbozed's argument, which pongfugrasshopper liked and used as counterargument. I'm the one who is using it on you guys here to point out the problem with that logic, which you now feel is not right and have to point out the inconsistency.

Just like the CNR that criticized the CNT's selection system as lazy governance, sample size is lazy argument. If everything is attributed to that, then there is no point in keeping track of past record simply because no table tennis players will ever satisfy the law of large numbers, weak or strong.

I guess we can agree to disagree on sample size. The point is that elements of these results can be attributed to chance. The point is that it goes in both directions. And when the results are heavily skewed by repeated matches against one player, it should just be taken as a reliable representation of that particular matchup.

 

[NextLevel]

And yet you raised Hirano's performance against her teammates? How did she finish 2nd in the selection race?

Hirano beat Hayata 3-2 at WTT CT Zagreb 2022 and reached the final, their first international encounter in this cycle. Come back to me when Harimoto beat Hayata in international competitions.

And this impacts her ranking in 2024 in what way?

Again it is easy to deflect away from Hirano, but she bears responsibility for her ranking.

 

[zeio]

And this impacts her ranking in 2024 in what way?

Again it is easy to deflect away from Hirano, but she bears responsibility for her ranking.

And you told me she had the same opportunities? Which one comes first? The race, or the WR?

If Ito had played many more than Hirano in international competitions, then maybe your point would stand. Why does Ito have 9 and Hirano 11?

 

[NextLevel]

And you told me she had the same opportunities? Which one comes first? The race, or the WR?

The race obviously. But other handled the race and kept their rankings. It is her responsibility.

 

[turbozed]

Brateyko and Vivarelli just had an old-school scoring system game that ended 19-21. High drama.

This was actually a pretty insane match with it going to deuce and more drama in the 5th game. Don't think either of those players will forget that match anytime soon.

 

[NextLevel]

This was actually a pretty insane match with it going to deuce and more drama in the 5th game. Don't think either of those players will forget that match anytime soon.

Yes, I watched that. I wonder what happened in Italy, their women have seen a level jump of sorts, wonder whether it is a coaching/environmental improvement of some sort.

 

[driversbeat]

Seems like Wang yuegu is now coaching for Taiwan, or at least Li Yu-Jhun

 

[turbozed]

Just to set things straight. It's turbozed's argument, which pongfugrasshopper liked and used as counterargument. I'm the one who is using it on you guys here to point out the problem with that logic, which you now feel is not right and have to point out the inconsistency.

Just like the CNR that criticized the CNT's selection system as lazy governance, sample size is lazy argument. If everything is attributed to that, then there is no point in keeping track of past record simply because no table tennis players will ever satisfy the law of large numbers, weak or strong.

No it wasn't my argument. It was a quote about a completely different issue that you bizarrely pulled out of nowhere out of context.

Let me remind you of the context. You said that Hayata would never beat SYS ever because she just lost in the 5th game by 2 points, despite SYS benefitting from a few edge/net balls. I said it wasn't impossible even if implied odds were 80% in favor of SYS that Hayata would win eventually, and that a sample size of 12 was pretty small to be fatalistic about things. It's pretty much the equivalent of rolling a dice 12 times and it never landing on a certain number.

Instead of responding directly to this, and having a discussion like an adult about it you've chosen to ignore the issue entirely then bring out the quote in a snide way out of context.

Why do this? I make a living predicting future events using statistics. If you have some secret knowledge that is counter to basic math and our understanding of reality, then I'd love to hear it. I'll give you one last chance. We can have a long discussion about this now. Otherwise stop being a child and drop it. It's annoying and makes you look silly.

 

[FIXPOINT]

 

[FIXPOINT]

 

[zeio]

No it wasn't my argument. It was a quote about a completely different issue that you bizarrely pulled out of nowhere out of context.

Let me remind you of the context. You said that Hayata would never beat SYS ever because she just lost in the 5th game by 2 points, despite SYS benefitting from a few edge/net balls. I said it wasn't impossible even if implied odds were 80% in favor of SYS that Hayata would win eventually, and that a sample size of 12 was pretty small to be fatalistic about things. It's pretty much the equivalent of rolling a dice 12 times and it never landing on a certain number.

Instead of responding directly to this, and having a discussion like an adult about it you've chosen to ignore the issue entirely then bring out the quote in a snide way out of context.

Why do this? I make a living predicting future events using statistics. If you have some secret knowledge that is counter to basic math and our understanding of reality, then I'd love to hear it. I'll give you one last chance. We can have a long discussion about this now. Otherwise stop being a child and drop it. It's annoying and makes you look silly.

Having a discussion like an adult? Oh, please. I'm starting to repeat myself. Reproducing this reply I made to you back at WTT SCT Doah 2024.

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/forum/topics/wtt-star-contender-doha-2024.32659/post-439692
Where did you get the idea that I ever suggested that Hayata had no chance of winning? It's Hayata who says she is frustrated with not being able to win when she should have (3 out of 4 previous matches were 2-3 against CM). By all means, go convince Hayata that it has to do with luck.

Except that luck doesn't work that way (one last time). As pointed out in the paper I linked, even though luck cuts both ways, it tends to work in the favor of the weaker side, especially for a smaller sample size (see the quote below).

We've already seen that happen many times in the Paris 2024 cycle (2021/8/15-). Ni Xia Lian, Doo Hoi Kem, Yuan Jia Nan, Szocs, Hirano, Samara, Han Ying and Kihara have all benefited from the bo5 format. The "deviation" is even more pronounced for the men. LSS scored his first win against FZD after 14 straight losses, 13 of which happened before this cycle. LSS got a total of 3 games out of the first 12 matches (10/2013-11/2019) and in this cycle he's already gotten 5 games out of 4 matches (4-12/2023). The fact that Hayata is (still) not part of that club after 2.42 years could be an indication that the way she had played thus far did not maximize her good luck, as suggested in the paper.

Before comparing table tennis with card games, know that ML and Ovtcharov have met 20 times ONLY over 14 years (1/2009-11/2023) and the latter is still "expecting" his first win. ML and Mizutani have met 15 times ONLY over 14 years (11/2004-3/2019) and ML even wondered if Mizutani's biggest regret was not being able to win once. Mizutani should feel relieved knowing that he just had had really bad luck all these years and that regression toward the mean would've caught up with ML had his eyes allowed him to keep on playing.

女乒梦莎鱼的成人赛输外站统计 (CM/SYS/WMY's overseas losses against non-teammates in WS)
https://tieba.baidu.com/p/8641817077
女乒迪女成人赛输外站统计 (WYD's)
https://tieba.baidu.com/p/8637491794
同女的成人赛输外站统计 (CXT's)
https://tieba.baidu.com/p/8641802578
谁的外战最强？目前的外战实力排行如下，有没有遗漏？ (Who has the strongest overseas record?)
https://tieba.baidu.com/p/8693219694

https://pscresearch.faculty.ucdavis...2015/03/Johnson-2013-law-of-large-numbers.pdf
https://www.semanticscholar.org/pap...Kang/786e12e750e97dcf832949ddd044395022180d50

Chance as foe
From an evolutionary perspective, the ability to control events and
to steer them in the desired direction is obviously conducive to
survival. Generally speaking, one may gain more by attempting to in-
fluence an outcome than by passively submitting to the vicissitudes of
fortune. Despite one's best efforts, however, limitations on personal
ability sometimes make failure more probable than success. It is in
these cases that one may especially benefit from the greater potential
for good luck that is presented by a smaller sample. For example, al-
though the stronger of two closely matched teams is always some-
what more likely to win, the LLN suggests that the weaker team has
a greater chance of prevailing in a single game playoff than in a
seven game series.
However, our results provide converging evidence that such poten-
tial benefits of chance are not fully appreciated. Instead, people have a
biased attitude toward luck. Participants are not oblivious to the LLN,
and correctly associate small samples with greater chance fluctuation.
Importantly, however, they also associate small samples more with
bad luck than with good luck. They also indicate that they distrust
luck and believe that they are less lucky than the average person
(although Study 3 suggests that their biased view of chance extends
to people other than the self). Finally, the findings also demonstrate
an asymmetric view of the relation between luck and control. If people
believe that luck is truly random, they should also believe that good
luck, as well as bad luck, will increase as control is diminished. Instead,
participants believe that when control is surrendered, bad luck
increases, but good luck actually tends to decrease.

 

[zeio]

The race obviously. But other handled the race and kept their rankings. It is her responsibility.

Please. Go look up their world ranking at the start and end of the race. This is wasting my time. If anything, it's Ito who has not been keeping up.

The selection race officially started after Zennihon Takkyu 2022, 1/24-30 and ended after Zennihon Takkyu 2024, 1/22-28
Initial points from 2020 were reduced to 20% from 1/2022 onward, and 0% from 5/2022 onward
ITTF TTWR 2022/2/1, 2022/5/3, 2024/1/30
Ito 3 (4 events), 6 (5), 10 (10)
Hayata 6 (6 events), 5 (7), 5 (17)
Hirano 15 (4 events), 44 (5), 18 (11)
Kihara 52 (3 events), 15 (6), 25 (13)
Nagasaki 67 (2 events), 96 (5), 26 (12)
Harimoto unranked (624 as of 2022/3/15), 71 (4), 16 (14)

 

[Takkyu_wa_inochi]

Felix vs Sora will be either a 3-0 sweep to either one or a 3-2 match

and if not, it should be a 3-1

 

[blahness]

and if not, it should be a 3-1

Dude that's pretty much all the possibilities lol